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Wednesday, 10 June 20
OPEC+ CUTS EXTENSION TO ACCELERATE MARKET REBALANCING - FITCH RATINGS
 Fitch Ratings-London-08 June 2020: The OPEC+ agreement to extend by one month record oil production cuts should accelerate market rebalancing, Fitch Ratings says. This is further supported by a commitment to improve compliance from those countries that were unable to reach full conformity with the cuts.
The OPEC+ countries have made radical production cuts in the stress scenario, but it may be more difficult to reach a consensus when the worst of the crisis is over. And it is unclear whether the recovery in oil prices to date is sustainable. Furthermore, demand and production in non-OPEC+ countries, notably the US, will continue to have a significant impact on the supply-demand balance and prices. We believe that a normalisation of oil inventory built up in 1H20 will take at least several months.
Crude oil prices rose significantly in May and continued to improve in early June, because the surplus has been reduced materially. A price differential between the physical and financial markets has disappeared, pointing to crude oil market tightening. We believe that a stress case scenario with prices falling significantly below USD30/bbl is now less likely. The market is likely to experience a production deficit in 2H20 due to gradually improving demand and reduced supply.
The OPEC+ cuts were the major contributor to market rebalancing. We estimate that the OPEC+ countries reduced production by around 7.5mmbpd in May compared to March. The cumulative OPEC+ cuts should exceed 9mmbpd in June as Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and UAE have committed to cut an additional 1.1mmbpd, while Iraq and Nigeria, which underperformed in May, have promised to improve compliance in June. A resumption of production in Libya, which is not subject to the OPEC+ deal, may increase supply but should be more than offset by additional cuts elsewhere.
Furthermore, production fell in the US as a result both of shut-ins and reduced drilling activity by almost 2mmbpd at end-May compared to March, while Canada cut around 1mmbpd. The number of active drilling rigs in the US declined by 64% compared to the beginning of the year. Production in North America may continue to shrink for a while, but the pace is likely to decelerate due to increased prices. We believe that at USD30/bbl, many producers should be able to stabilise production, while at USD40/bbl or above some would be tempted to increase output, which could limit price recovery.
Estimates suggest crude oil demand increased in May compared to April, and we believe it will improve further from June due to the gradual lifting of lockdown restrictions. Implied oil products consumption in the US improved from a 28% drop in April yoy to a 20% drop in May, driven mainly by increased gasoline consumption (a yoy decline of 25% in May compared to a 44% decline in April), while the consumption of jet fuel remained flat. We believe consumption patterns are similar in Europe, while demand in China bottomed out in February.
Demand recovery is now key in achieving balance in the oil market. It could be undermined in the event of a second coronavirus wave and the re-introduction of lockdowns, although it is not our base case. While consumption of gasoline and diesel could recover by the year-end, jet fuel may lag behind as international travel restrictions may remain in place and demand for business travel may be structurally impaired.
Our ratings are informed by companies’ projected performance at end-2021, rather than in 2020, provided their liquidity is adequate, as we rate “through the cycle”. While we may recalibrate our near-term oil price assumptions to the pace of market rebalancing, our ratings already assume that the market will recover gradually; therefore the most recent improvements will not prompt portfolio-wide rating actions.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Tuesday, 17 March 20
IT IS NOW UNQUESTIONABLE THAT 2020 WILL BE A MILESTONE YEAR FOR THE OIL MARKET, AS WELL AS THE WHOLE GLOBAL ECONOMY - ALLIED
It is now unquestionable that 2020 will be a milestone year for the oil market, as well as the whole global economy. The impact from the COVID-19 o ...
Tuesday, 17 March 20
PRELIMINARY FIELD EXPERIENCES ON THE EFFECTS OF LSFO AND VLSFO ON CYLINDER CONDITION - HANS JENSEN LUBRICATORS
It is now more than two months since the 0.5% sulphur cap entered into force, which have affected the operation of more than 70,000 vessels. As ant ...
Monday, 16 March 20
ULTRAMAX: S8 INDONESIA-INDIA AND S10 INDONESIA-CHINA ROUTES BOTH POSTED GAINS OF $1,412, AND $1,289 ON THE WEEK, TO CLOSE AT $5,575, AND $6,089 RESPECTIVELY - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market came to work on Monday, with little expectation, or confidence, that the days ahead were going to bring anything o ...
Sunday, 15 March 20
CAPTIVE COAL OUTPUT RISES 19% IN APRIL-FEBRUARY - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Coal production from captive mines in the first eleven months of the ongoing fiscal have increased by 18.8% year-on-year (y-o-y) to 51.7 million to ...
Friday, 13 March 20
PANAMAX: SLIGHTLY STRONGER NUMBERS IN BOTH BASINS THIS WEEK - FEARNLEYS
Cape
Still very sad times for the big ships, and merit in further trading at present levels is highly debatable for most tonnage. Spot fixtures ...
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Showing 1066 to 1070 news of total 6871 |
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- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
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