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Wednesday, 10 June 20
OPEC+ CUTS EXTENSION TO ACCELERATE MARKET REBALANCING - FITCH RATINGS
 Fitch Ratings-London-08 June 2020: The OPEC+ agreement to extend by one month record oil production cuts should accelerate market rebalancing, Fitch Ratings says. This is further supported by a commitment to improve compliance from those countries that were unable to reach full conformity with the cuts.
The OPEC+ countries have made radical production cuts in the stress scenario, but it may be more difficult to reach a consensus when the worst of the crisis is over. And it is unclear whether the recovery in oil prices to date is sustainable. Furthermore, demand and production in non-OPEC+ countries, notably the US, will continue to have a significant impact on the supply-demand balance and prices. We believe that a normalisation of oil inventory built up in 1H20 will take at least several months.
Crude oil prices rose significantly in May and continued to improve in early June, because the surplus has been reduced materially. A price differential between the physical and financial markets has disappeared, pointing to crude oil market tightening. We believe that a stress case scenario with prices falling significantly below USD30/bbl is now less likely. The market is likely to experience a production deficit in 2H20 due to gradually improving demand and reduced supply.
The OPEC+ cuts were the major contributor to market rebalancing. We estimate that the OPEC+ countries reduced production by around 7.5mmbpd in May compared to March. The cumulative OPEC+ cuts should exceed 9mmbpd in June as Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and UAE have committed to cut an additional 1.1mmbpd, while Iraq and Nigeria, which underperformed in May, have promised to improve compliance in June. A resumption of production in Libya, which is not subject to the OPEC+ deal, may increase supply but should be more than offset by additional cuts elsewhere.
Furthermore, production fell in the US as a result both of shut-ins and reduced drilling activity by almost 2mmbpd at end-May compared to March, while Canada cut around 1mmbpd. The number of active drilling rigs in the US declined by 64% compared to the beginning of the year. Production in North America may continue to shrink for a while, but the pace is likely to decelerate due to increased prices. We believe that at USD30/bbl, many producers should be able to stabilise production, while at USD40/bbl or above some would be tempted to increase output, which could limit price recovery.
Estimates suggest crude oil demand increased in May compared to April, and we believe it will improve further from June due to the gradual lifting of lockdown restrictions. Implied oil products consumption in the US improved from a 28% drop in April yoy to a 20% drop in May, driven mainly by increased gasoline consumption (a yoy decline of 25% in May compared to a 44% decline in April), while the consumption of jet fuel remained flat. We believe consumption patterns are similar in Europe, while demand in China bottomed out in February.
Demand recovery is now key in achieving balance in the oil market. It could be undermined in the event of a second coronavirus wave and the re-introduction of lockdowns, although it is not our base case. While consumption of gasoline and diesel could recover by the year-end, jet fuel may lag behind as international travel restrictions may remain in place and demand for business travel may be structurally impaired.
Our ratings are informed by companies’ projected performance at end-2021, rather than in 2020, provided their liquidity is adequate, as we rate “through the cycle”. While we may recalibrate our near-term oil price assumptions to the pace of market rebalancing, our ratings already assume that the market will recover gradually; therefore the most recent improvements will not prompt portfolio-wide rating actions.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Saturday, 25 April 20
KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO. INVITED BIDS FOR 780K - 900K MT OF 5600 NCV COAL FOR JULY TO OCTOBER 2020 LOADING
COALspot.com: South Korea’s KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO., LTD. (KOEN) has issued an international tender for 780,000~900,000 Metric Tons (MT) s ...
Saturday, 25 April 20
SEAFARER MENTAL WELLBEING DURING THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC - STANDARD CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
COVID-19 has forced many parts of the world to enforce a lockdown in a bid to flatten the curve in terms of transmissions ...
Friday, 24 April 20
KOMIPO INVITED BIDS FOR 5700 NAR COAL FOR JUNE & JULY LOADING
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea Midland Power Co. Ltd. (KOMIPO) Has Issued An International Tender For 260,000 Metric Tons (MT) Steam Coal ...
Friday, 24 April 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE REMAINS FLAT - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price remained flat during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Friday, 24 April 20
COAL INDIA TO PRODUCE 710 MT COAL - MINISTER OF COAL AND MINES
Coal India Limited (CIL) will produce 710 million tonnes (MT) of coal and company’s coal off take target will also remain at710 MT for this f ...
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- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PTC India Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
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