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Monday, 25 May 20
NON-OPEC OIL SUPPLY DEVELOPMENT - OPEC
 Non-OPEC oil supply continued to increase by 2.0 mb/d in 2019, driven by US shale production, which rose by 1.7 mb/d, amounting to 84% of total non-OPEC supply growth. This growth came despite pipeline constraints in the Permian basin in 1H19, and as independent oil companies began to reduce spending in response to investor demands to raise free cash flow. With regard to infrastructure, Canada also suffered from limited pipeline and storage capacity, which led to a mandate to curtail oil sands production by the Alberta provincial government. Liquids production in Brazil, Australia, Russia and China also contributed to the gains, while part of this growth was offset by heavy declines in Mexico and Norway.
Capital expenditure, including exploration capex in non-OPEC countries, reached a record high of US$741 bn in 2014 when oil price levels were also high. However, in the years that followed and with lower average oil prices, investment dropped to considerably lower levels in 2016. Moreover, since the beginning of the renewed decline in oil prices in 4Q18, the amount of capex has also decreased to US$459 bn in 2019. Capex in 2020 is forecast to show a y-o-y decline of 23%, according to preliminary estimations, which is only approximately half of level of capex in 2014. The COVID-19 pandemic, which began in 1Q20 has spread globally in a matter of a couple of months, has caused a recession in the global economy as well as an unprecedented oil demand shock, leading to large oversupply in the oil market.
In response to this sudden and huge market imbalance, OPEC and the 10 non-OPEC participants in the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC), decided to adjust down their combined current production by 9.7 mb/d in May and June 2020, to be followed by a combined reduction of 7.7 mb/d in 2H20 and by 5.8 mb/d for a period of 16 months, from 1 January 2021 to 30 April 2022. Furthermore, on 12 May 2020, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Kuwait announced that they would voluntarily deepen oil output adjustments from June, by 1 mb/d, 100 tb/d and 80 tb/d, respectively, in an effort to expedite draining a global supply glut and rebalancing the oil market. Outside of the DoC, other non-OPEC producers, particularly US producers, reduced their production by shutting-in producing wells or adjusting down the rate of production. According to different sources and company announcements, US producers – including oil majors – have so far cut production by at least 1.5 mb/d in 2Q20, which is likely to be achieved by shut-ins of higher-cost wells, partial reductions in output of selected wells and the deferral of “putting on production” wells.
Additionally, 2020 oil production in Canada, particularly Alberta’s bitumen and synthetic crude, is forecast to decline by 0.4 mb/d on an annual basis, on reduced upstream capex of the main operators and shut-ins/curtailment announcements of around 1.0 mb/d.
Globally, outside of the DoC, as of 6 May 2020, around 3.6 mb/d of production cuts have so far been announced in response to the lack of demand, low oil prices, excess supply and limited storage capacity. With this, non-OPEC supply in 2020 is expected to see a deep contraction of 3.5 mb/d mainly in the US, Russia and Canada, as only few countries will to show some supply growth in 2020 such as Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia.
The speedy supply adjustments in addressing the current acute imbalance in the global oil market has already started showing positive response, with rebalancing expected to pick up faster in the coming quarters.
Source: OPEC
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Friday, 08 May 20
THE COLLAPSE OF THE OIL AND BUNKER FUEL MARKETS IN EARLY 2020 - PETER SAND
The sulphur regulation from the International Maritime Organization (IMO) that came into force on 1 January 2020 took the centre stage in the shipp ...
Friday, 08 May 20
LNG DEMAND FACED SEVERAL HEADWINDS IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2020 - GASLOG
LNG demand faced several headwinds in the first quarter of 2020 including a warmer than average winter in the northern hemisphere, high inventory l ...
Thursday, 07 May 20
IEEFA UPDATE: THE OUTLOOK FOR THERMAL COAL IN SOUTHEAST ASIA AND SOUTH ASIA
Seven headwinds are building to sustained growth in coal in Asia
The medium term outlook for thermal coal in Southeast Asia is posit ...
Thursday, 07 May 20
IMO 2020: BUNKER CLAIMS HANDLING GUIDE FOR A NEW DECADE - THE STANDARD CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
IMO 2020 is the term generally used to describe the following regulations under Annex VI of the International Convention ...
Thursday, 07 May 20
CRUDE OIL TANKER EARNINGS DROP 68% IN NINE DAYS - BIMCO
Crude oil tanker earnings have come down sharply in recent weeks with Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) earnings from the Middle East Gulf to China d ...
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- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- The University of Queensland
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- White Energy Company Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
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