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Monday, 25 May 20
NON-OPEC OIL SUPPLY DEVELOPMENT - OPEC
 Non-OPEC oil supply continued to increase by 2.0 mb/d in 2019, driven by US shale production, which rose by 1.7 mb/d, amounting to 84% of total non-OPEC supply growth. This growth came despite pipeline constraints in the Permian basin in 1H19, and as independent oil companies began to reduce spending in response to investor demands to raise free cash flow. With regard to infrastructure, Canada also suffered from limited pipeline and storage capacity, which led to a mandate to curtail oil sands production by the Alberta provincial government. Liquids production in Brazil, Australia, Russia and China also contributed to the gains, while part of this growth was offset by heavy declines in Mexico and Norway.
Capital expenditure, including exploration capex in non-OPEC countries, reached a record high of US$741 bn in 2014 when oil price levels were also high. However, in the years that followed and with lower average oil prices, investment dropped to considerably lower levels in 2016. Moreover, since the beginning of the renewed decline in oil prices in 4Q18, the amount of capex has also decreased to US$459 bn in 2019. Capex in 2020 is forecast to show a y-o-y decline of 23%, according to preliminary estimations, which is only approximately half of level of capex in 2014. The COVID-19 pandemic, which began in 1Q20 has spread globally in a matter of a couple of months, has caused a recession in the global economy as well as an unprecedented oil demand shock, leading to large oversupply in the oil market.
In response to this sudden and huge market imbalance, OPEC and the 10 non-OPEC participants in the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC), decided to adjust down their combined current production by 9.7 mb/d in May and June 2020, to be followed by a combined reduction of 7.7 mb/d in 2H20 and by 5.8 mb/d for a period of 16 months, from 1 January 2021 to 30 April 2022. Furthermore, on 12 May 2020, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Kuwait announced that they would voluntarily deepen oil output adjustments from June, by 1 mb/d, 100 tb/d and 80 tb/d, respectively, in an effort to expedite draining a global supply glut and rebalancing the oil market. Outside of the DoC, other non-OPEC producers, particularly US producers, reduced their production by shutting-in producing wells or adjusting down the rate of production. According to different sources and company announcements, US producers – including oil majors – have so far cut production by at least 1.5 mb/d in 2Q20, which is likely to be achieved by shut-ins of higher-cost wells, partial reductions in output of selected wells and the deferral of “putting on production” wells.
Additionally, 2020 oil production in Canada, particularly Alberta’s bitumen and synthetic crude, is forecast to decline by 0.4 mb/d on an annual basis, on reduced upstream capex of the main operators and shut-ins/curtailment announcements of around 1.0 mb/d.
Globally, outside of the DoC, as of 6 May 2020, around 3.6 mb/d of production cuts have so far been announced in response to the lack of demand, low oil prices, excess supply and limited storage capacity. With this, non-OPEC supply in 2020 is expected to see a deep contraction of 3.5 mb/d mainly in the US, Russia and Canada, as only few countries will to show some supply growth in 2020 such as Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia.
The speedy supply adjustments in addressing the current acute imbalance in the global oil market has already started showing positive response, with rebalancing expected to pick up faster in the coming quarters.
Source: OPEC
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Wednesday, 20 May 20
ADARO ENERGY BOOKED A 5% INCREASE IN COAL PRODUCTION VOLUME Y-O-Y IN 1Q2020
PT. Adaro Energy Tbk, Indonesia’s one of the largest coal miner, booked a 5% increase in coal production volume year-over-year in 1Q2020. The ...
Wednesday, 20 May 20
BRAZIL SOYBEAN EXPORTS HAVE BEEN SURGING THIS YEAR - BANCHERO COSTA
Brazil soybean exports have been surging this year, thanks to a combination of strong demand from China, a bumper crop, and favourable exchange rat ...
Wednesday, 20 May 20
MARKET INSIGHT
Seafarers keep maritime trade going so that the food, raw materials, energy and manufactured goods on which so many depend can continue moving arou ...
Tuesday, 19 May 20
AMENDMENT OF THE INDONESIAN MINING LAW: TYING UP LOOSE ENDS - UMBRA
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The finalized draft of Law on the amendment of the Mining Law (Bill) was publicly released on 11 May 2020 and was then ap ...
Monday, 18 May 20
TAKING ADVANTAGE OF VIRUS DISTRACTION - BALTIC EXCHANGE
As the industry grapples to deal with exceptional Covid-19-related challenges, a deeper threat is coming to the fore. At this time of crisis, more ...
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- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
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- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
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- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
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- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
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- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
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- McConnell Dowell - Australia
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- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
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- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Australian Coal Association
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- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
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- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
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- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
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- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
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- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
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- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
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- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
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- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
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- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
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- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
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- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
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- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
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- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
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- Minerals Council of Australia
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- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
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- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
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- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
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- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
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