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Monday, 11 May 20
CORONAVIRUS PUTS MORE THAN A THIRD OF SEABORNE COAL SUPPLY AT RISK - WOOD MACKENZIE
 The full impact of the coronavirus outbreak on the global economy is yet unclear. However, the demand destruction is already becoming evident, with seaborne thermal and metallurgical prices in near-freefall. So, what does this mean for global seaborne supply? And how will different regions be affected?
This article is an excerpt from our insight ‘Spot prices put 36% of seaborne production at risk’. Fill in the form for a complimentary copy of the 20-page insight or read on for some of the highlights.
Quantifying the impact on seaborne supply
Our research analysed the relative risk of production curtailment, identifying three risk categories:
High risk – operations with a negative spot margin and either a positive or negative valuation.
Medium risk – operations with a positive margin but a negative valuation.
Low risk – operations with a positive margin and a positive valuation.
The results are stark. More than a third of the seaborne coal market is currently at high risk of production curtailment.
Thermal coal: collapsing prices take margins with them
It may come as no surprise that the hard-hit thermal coal market accounts for 93%, or more than 440 million tonnes, of high-risk production. As it stands, nearly 45% of production would have a negative cash margin if sold at spot prices.
All producing countries have some thermal coal at risk. Indonesia has the most high-risk tonnage, though the entire Atlantic basin is struggling.
In Indonesia, weak demand from China and domestic oversupply are creating significant pressure, and a high likelihood of production cuts. The low oil price, and resultant fall in diesel, is in its favour – but exchange rate movements offer little help as the majority of costs are in US dollars.
Australia is best positioned to weather the storm. Costs versus quality of coal were already amongst the best in the world and exchange rate movements have only strengthened that position. As a result, we expect Australia to remain a core global supplier of coal regardless of weakening demand. Some curtailments may happen but will be limited due to high fixed costs around take-or-pay contracts.
What’s the situation in Russia, Colombia – and the rest of the world? Fill in the form at the top of this page to read this insight in full.
Seaborne metallurgical coal spared the collapse – for now
The metallurgical sector – with prices falling but not yet at record lows – represents just 7% of high-risk production, or around 33 million tonnes. Around 10% of metallurgical production has a negative cash margin.
The US is struggling at current spot prices, and the high costs of its producers mean that production cuts are coming. Small producers are likely to fall quickly and quietly, with larger operations announcing cuts.
In Canada, on the other hand, production is at low risk of curtailment. Canadian producers are positioned nearly as well as high-quality Australian operations. Lower quality and smaller operations are more at risk than large, flagship operations – however, while there is potential for some production curtailment if prices continue to fall, the tonnage is likely to be smaller than other countries.
For our full country-by-country analysis, fill in the form at the top of this page for a complimentary copy of the insight ‘Spot prices put 36% of seaborne production at risk’.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Wednesday, 27 May 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.94 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 125.03 points Monday, up 0.94 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
Monday, 25 May 20
NON-OPEC OIL SUPPLY DEVELOPMENT - OPEC
Non-OPEC oil supply continued to increase by 2.0 mb/d in 2019, driven by US shale production, which rose by 1.7 mb/d, amounting to 84% of total non ...
Sunday, 24 May 20
A 63,000 FIXED DELIVERY VIETNAM TRIP VIA INDONESIA REDELIVERY KOSICHANG AT $8,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
After a week of bounce momentum the market appears to have stalled out once again. The Capesize 5TC has more than doubled since last F ...
Saturday, 23 May 20
COLOMBIA COAL OUTPUT DOWN 7.2% IN Q1 ON LOW PRICES, CORONAVIRUS LOCKDOWN - REUTERS
Coal production in Colombia, the world’s fifth-largest coal exporter, fell 7.2% in the first quarter because of low prices and coronavirus qu ...
Saturday, 23 May 20
EWP INVITES BIDS FOR 840,000 METRIC TONS OF MIN 5700 NAR COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea East-West Power Co. Ltd (EWP) has Issued an International Tender for total Max 840,000 Metric Tons of min 5 ...
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- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- White Energy Company Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Australian Coal Association
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Planning Commission, India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
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