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Monday, 11 May 20
CORONAVIRUS PUTS MORE THAN A THIRD OF SEABORNE COAL SUPPLY AT RISK - WOOD MACKENZIE
 The full impact of the coronavirus outbreak on the global economy is yet unclear. However, the demand destruction is already becoming evident, with seaborne thermal and metallurgical prices in near-freefall. So, what does this mean for global seaborne supply? And how will different regions be affected?
This article is an excerpt from our insight ‘Spot prices put 36% of seaborne production at risk’. Fill in the form for a complimentary copy of the 20-page insight or read on for some of the highlights.
Quantifying the impact on seaborne supply
Our research analysed the relative risk of production curtailment, identifying three risk categories:
High risk – operations with a negative spot margin and either a positive or negative valuation.
Medium risk – operations with a positive margin but a negative valuation.
Low risk – operations with a positive margin and a positive valuation.
The results are stark. More than a third of the seaborne coal market is currently at high risk of production curtailment.
Thermal coal: collapsing prices take margins with them
It may come as no surprise that the hard-hit thermal coal market accounts for 93%, or more than 440 million tonnes, of high-risk production. As it stands, nearly 45% of production would have a negative cash margin if sold at spot prices.
All producing countries have some thermal coal at risk. Indonesia has the most high-risk tonnage, though the entire Atlantic basin is struggling.
In Indonesia, weak demand from China and domestic oversupply are creating significant pressure, and a high likelihood of production cuts. The low oil price, and resultant fall in diesel, is in its favour – but exchange rate movements offer little help as the majority of costs are in US dollars.
Australia is best positioned to weather the storm. Costs versus quality of coal were already amongst the best in the world and exchange rate movements have only strengthened that position. As a result, we expect Australia to remain a core global supplier of coal regardless of weakening demand. Some curtailments may happen but will be limited due to high fixed costs around take-or-pay contracts.
What’s the situation in Russia, Colombia – and the rest of the world? Fill in the form at the top of this page to read this insight in full.
Seaborne metallurgical coal spared the collapse – for now
The metallurgical sector – with prices falling but not yet at record lows – represents just 7% of high-risk production, or around 33 million tonnes. Around 10% of metallurgical production has a negative cash margin.
The US is struggling at current spot prices, and the high costs of its producers mean that production cuts are coming. Small producers are likely to fall quickly and quietly, with larger operations announcing cuts.
In Canada, on the other hand, production is at low risk of curtailment. Canadian producers are positioned nearly as well as high-quality Australian operations. Lower quality and smaller operations are more at risk than large, flagship operations – however, while there is potential for some production curtailment if prices continue to fall, the tonnage is likely to be smaller than other countries.
For our full country-by-country analysis, fill in the form at the top of this page for a complimentary copy of the insight ‘Spot prices put 36% of seaborne production at risk’.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Friday, 05 January 24
BANGLADESH’S 2023 COAL-FIRED POWER OUTPUT TRIPLED, EASING SHORTAGES - REUTERS
Bangladesh nearly tripled its coal-fired power output in 2023, a Reuters analysis of government data showed, helping it tide over the worst power s ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
COAL TRADE CONTINUES TO HEAD EAST - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The global coal trade, once concentrated in the Pacific and Atlantic basins, is undergoing a significant transformation, as highlighted in the Inte ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
COAL CARGOES: AVOIDING EXPLOSION AND SELF-HEATING - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Despite its contribution to greenhouse gas emissions, global coal consumption climbed to an all-time high in 2022 and is ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
SINOPEC FORECASTS CHINA’S COAL CONSUMPTION TO PEAK AROUND 2025 - REUTERS
China Petrochemical Corp, or Sinopec, expects coal consumption to peak around 2025 at 4.37 billion metric tons, the state energy group said in an o ...
Thursday, 07 December 23
CHINA TO SET UP COAL PRODUCTION RESERVE TO STABILISE PRICES - REUTERS
China will establish a back-up coal production system by 2027 to stabilise prices and secure coal supply, the state planner said on Wednesday, even ...
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- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The University of Queensland
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- White Energy Company Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
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