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Friday, 17 April 20
OPEC BRACES FOR OIL MARKET'S "HISTORIC SHOCK"
 OPEC released its much anticipated April monthly report.
Crude Oil Price Movements
Crude oil prices collapsed in March 2020, recording their deepest monthly drop since the global financial crisis in 2008. The ramifications of the COVID-19 pandemic were the main driving force, resulting in unprecedented worldwide oil demand shock and massive sell-offs in the global oil markets, amid a significant crude surplus. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value was down by $21.61, or 38.9%, m-o-m, to stand at $33.92/b, the lowest monthly value since September 2003. ICE Brent declined by $21.75, or 39.2%, m-o-m, to average $33.73/b, while NYMEX WTI fell $20.09, or 39.8%, to average $30.45/b. The term structure of all three crude benchmarks – ICE Brent, NYMEX WTI and DME Oman – moved to a super contango in March, and money managers cut speculative net long positions.
World Economy
The world economy is forecast to face a severe recession in 2020, declining by 1.5%, following global economic growth of 2.9% in the previous year. Following tender signs of improvement at the beginning of the year, expectations for global economic growth were quickly burdened by the strong impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Within the OECD, the US is forecast to contract by 4.1% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline is expected in the Euro-zone, where economic activity is forecast to fall by 6.0% in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 3.9% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.5%, recovering from a sharp contraction in 1Q20 and following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India is forecast to grow by only 2.0%, a sharp slowdown from already weakening growth of 5.3% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 2.4% in 2020, following growth of 1.0% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 0.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.4% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices. As risk remains to be skewed to the downside, further revisions may be warranted going forward.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand growth forecast for 2019 is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d, compared with the previous month’s assessment. For 2020, the world oil demand growth forecast is revised lower by 6.9 mb/d, to a historical drop of around 6.8 mb/d. The contraction in the 2Q of this year is expected to be around 12 mb/d, with April witnessing the worst contraction at about 20 mb/d. The impact of the COVID-19 outbreak in China in 1Q20, and its negative impact on transportation and industrial fuels in the country, has since spread globally and is now affecting oil demand growth in most other countries and regions, with an unprecedented impact on global oil demand, transportation fuels in particular. As a result, OECD oil demand is revised lower by 3.7 mb/d to decline by 4.0 mb/d, while non-OECD oil demand growth is adjusted lower by 3.2 mb/d to contract by 2.9 mb/d for the year. Considering latest developments, and the large uncertainties going forward, downward risks remain significant, suggesting possibility of further adjustments, especially in the 2Q, should new data and further developments warrant revisions.
World Oil Supply Non-OPEC oil supply growth in 2019 is revised down by 0.01 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now estimated at 1.98 mb/d. For 2020, non-OPEC oil supply is forecast to decline by 1.50 mb/d, a downward revision of 3.26 mb/d from the previous projection. The impact of COVID-19, ensuing global economic recession and oil demand shock, will also lead to supply disruptions. Benchmark oil prices plunge prompted companies to respond by cutting capital expenditure to the lowest in 13 years. The 2020 oil supply growth forecast for the US was revised down by 1.05 mb/d to show a decline of 0.15 mb/d y-o-y. The supply growth for the 10 non-OPEC countries participating in the Declaration of Cooperation has also been adjusted lower. Oil supply in 2020 is now forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. OPEC NGLs production in 2019 is estimated to have grown by 0.04 mb/d to average 4.79 mb/d and for 2020 will grow by 0.04 mb/d to average 4.83 mb/d. In March, OPEC crude oil production increased by 821 tb/d m-o-m to average 28.61 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Global refinery margins globally showed mixed performance during March. In the US, margins weakened as strength in gasoil/diesel was offset by losses in gasoline cracks, as complex margins came close to negative territory. In Europe, product markets strengthened slightly at the middle of the barrel, supported by a fall in feedstock prices. An already relatively tight global gasoil market saw support from output cuts and continued critical industrial activities for essential services and goods amid COVID-19. However, in Asia, margins eased towards the end of the month, pressured by a weaker top of the barrel, despite healthy gasoil and fuel oil crack spreads.
Tanker Market
The tanker market has been one of few segments of the oil industry that enjoyed positive momentum in March. A sudden surge in crude exports boosted demand for VLCCs, which pulled up Suezmax rates as well. Dirty spot freight rates declined mid-month before climbing again as the market was supported by high demand for tankers as charterers rushed to place cargoes amid a collapse in demand due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Increased options for time-chartering, including for floating storage, underscored the build-up of excess supply of crude and products in the market. For the month, dirty spot rates averaged 69% higher m-o-m in March. Clean tanker spot freight rates rose 12% m-o-m, as the need to find homes for excess product supplies supported the market.
Trade
Crude and product trade flows have been notably affected by the COVID-19 pandemic and the uncertain outlook going forward, although there has been some lag in how the various regions have been affected. US crude exports had a strong start to the year, averaging 3.5 mb/d in 1Q20, a gain of 0.8 mb/d over the same quarter last year, as the US remained a net liquids exporter for the seventh-consecutive month. Meanwhile, China’s crude imports averaged 10.5 mb/d over the first two months of 2020, declining from December as disruptions caused by COVID-19 led to some imports being diverted or delayed. Product trade was also affected, with imports and exports averaging 0.3 mb/d lower in the first two months of the year compared to December. Official data showed India’s crude imports increasing slightly in February, although some estimates show a higher jump as the country took in some discounted cargoes diverted from China. India’s crude and product trade is likely to be broadly impacted in March by a government-ordered lockdown.
Stock Movements
OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 5.6 mb, m-o-m, in February to stand at 2,945 mb. This was 64.3 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 24.7 mb above the latest five-year average. Within components, crude stocks fell by 6.1 mb, while product stocks rose by 11.7 mb, m-o-m. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks rose by 5.0 days, m-o-m, in February to stand at 72.7 days. This was 11.5 days above the same period in 2019, and 10.3 days above the latest five-year average. Preliminary data for March showed that US total commercial oil stocks increased by 8.2 mb, m-o-m, to stand at 1,922 mb. This was 31.8 mb, or 1.7%, above the same period a year ago, and 16.2 mb, or 0.8%, lower than the latest five-year average. Within components, crude stocks rose by 25.1 mb, while product stocks fell by 16.8 mb, m-o-m.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 stood at 29.9 mb/d, 1.2 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Following the recent agreement reached at the extraordinary OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meetings, the demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is expected at 24.5 mb/d, around 5.4 mb/d lower than the 2019 level, though this remains heavily subject to uncertainty surrounding current market conditions.
Source: OPEC
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Monday, 09 March 20
OPEC+ 'NO DEAL' A BLOW TO THE MARKET - WOOD MACKENZIE
Speaking after today’s OPEC+ meeting broke up, Ann-Louise Hittle, vice president, Macro Oils, at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Today’s o ...
Monday, 09 March 20
KOREA EAST-WEST POWER INVITED BIDS FOR 150,000 MT OF MIN 4,400 - MAX 5,499 NAR COAL
COALspot.com: KOREA EAST-WEST POWER CO. LTD. of South Korea has issued an international tender for total 150,000 MT of LCV coal for May – Jun ...
Sunday, 08 March 20
SUPRAMAX: A 55,000DWT VESSEL FIXING DELIVERY FROM EAST KALIMANTAN FOR A TRIP TO VIETNAM AT $9,100 - BALTIC BRIEFING
SUPRAMAX/ULTRAMAX - A 56,000DWT VESSEL FIXED DELIVERY SOUTH CHINA TRIP VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY EAST COAST INDIA, IN THE $6,000S
SUPRAMAX/U ...
Friday, 06 March 20
CHINA RESUMES 83.4 PCT COAL PRODUCTION CAPACITY AMID EPIDEMIC - XINHUA
China has resumed 83.4 percent of its coal production capacity amid the fight against the novel coronavirus outbreak, the National Energy Administr ...
Friday, 06 March 20
COLOMBIAN COAL OUTPUT FELL 2% IN 2019 - REUTERS
Coal production in Colombia, the fifth-largest coal exporter in the world, fell 2% to 82.2 million tonnes in 2019 after output at one of the princi ...
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- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Australian Coal Association
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Planning Commission, India
- The University of Queensland
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
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