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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Monday, 24 June 24
PHILIPPINES COAL SUPPLY ENOUGH UNTIL 2030 - PHILSTAR GLOBAL
The country’s existing coal-fired power plants are sufficient to ensure enough base load capacity in the next six years, Energy Secretary Rap ...
Friday, 14 June 24
NEXTDECADE, SAUDI ARAMCO SIGN 20-YEAR LNG SUPPLY DEAL - REUTERS
U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) provider NextDecade has signed a non-binding agreement with Saudi Aramco 2222.SE to supply 1.2 million tonnes per ...
Friday, 14 June 24
NEWBUILDING PRICES CLIMB 3% TO HIGHEST LEVEL IN 16 YEARS - NIELS RASMUSSEN
“Since the start of the year, newbuilding prices have risen 3% to their highest level since 2008. Compared to their most recent low in late 2 ...
Friday, 14 June 24
INDIA TARGETS HIGHER DOMESTIC COAL PRODUCTION, REDUCED IMPORTS: GOVT - REUTERS
India wants to reduce coal imports and increase domestic production, federal coal minister G. Kishan Reddy said on Thursday.
The cou ...
Thursday, 13 June 24
US LNG TO ASIA FOR POWER GENERATION EXPECTED TO CUT EMISSIONS VERSUS COAL - RYSTAD ENERGY
The value-chain emissions of liquified natural gas (LNG) are lower on average than for coal-fired power generation, even when the fuel is shipp ...
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- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Planning Commission, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhatia International Limited - India
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