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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Saturday, 25 March 23
COAL INDIA HAS STRONG CASE TO INCREASE PRICES, TALKS ON: CMD AGRAWAL - BUSINESS STANDARD
Coal India (CIL) Chairman and Managing Director Pramod Agrawal said on Monday there is a “strong case” for increasing coal prices, and ...
Saturday, 25 March 23
ASIAN CRUDE PALM OIL WATCH 1Q23 - FITCH RATINGS
Malaysian benchmark crude palm oil (CPO) spot prices have averaged around USD915 per tonne (t) so far in 1Q23, sharply lower than the average of ar ...
Saturday, 25 March 23
INDONESIA’S COAL EXPORT INCREASED BY 21.0% YOY TO 388.4 MLN T IN 2022 - BANCHERO COSTA
After a slow start in the first quarter, global coal trade has really picked up pace last year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels. In the f ...
Saturday, 25 March 23
GLOBAL LNG-ASIA SPOT PRICES SLIP AS WEAK NORTHERN DEMAND REMAINS - REUTERS
Asian spot prices of liquefied natural gas (LNG) declined this week, falling to a 21-month low, as weak demand in the northeast Asia region continu ...
Wednesday, 22 March 23
OIL PRICE FALL SPECULATIVE, TO HIT $140 BY YEAR-END -ANDURAND: REUTERS
The recent fall in oil prices due to banking jitters is speculative and oil will hit $140 a barrel by the end of the year, hedge fund manager Pierr ...
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- Australian Coal Association
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PTC India Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- MS Steel International - UAE
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