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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Tuesday, 11 April 23
OIL RISES ON CHINA STIMULUS EXPECTATIONS, WEAKER DOLLAR - REUTERS
Oil prices rose on Tuesday on expectations of potential economic stimulus by China, healthy demand in the rest of Asia and a drop in U.S. crude sto ...
Sunday, 09 April 23
CHINA’S BUSINESS INCOME REBOUND POINTS TO IMPROVING ECONOMY: OFFICIAL - XINHUA
Chinese businesses have posted a strong rebound in sales revenue since the beginning of this year in the latest signal of an improving economy.
...
Sunday, 09 April 23
COAL INDIA TO BOOST SUPPLIES TO INDUSTRIES AS UTILITIES’ INVENTORIES RISE - REUTERS
Coal India Ltd will increase supplies to industries, the world’s largest coal miner said on Wednesday as fuel inventories at utilities run by ...
Thursday, 06 April 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
LNG Current Supply/Demand Dynamics
This year, LNG supply will likely exceed demand, so prices will need to decline to levels that will encourag ...
Sunday, 26 March 23
EUROPE’S RUSH TO LNG COULD TURN INTO 'WORLD’S MOST EXPENSIVE AND UNNECESSARY INSURANCE POLICY'- CNBC
Europe’s rapid buildout of liquefied natural gas infrastructure is on track to far exceed demand by the end of the decade, according to new r ...
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- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- White Energy Company Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
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