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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Sunday, 16 April 23
CHINA JUGGLES FOUR MAJOR ECONOMIC CHANGES IN 2023 - WOOD MACKENZIE
Change is afoot in China. Economic growth is slowing, while rising political tensions between China and the US, coupled with global supply chain re ...
Sunday, 16 April 23
CHINA'S MARCH COAL IMPORTS JUMP TO 3-YEAR HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal imports surged in March to their highest in any month over the past three years as utilities increased purchases on expectations ...
Sunday, 16 April 23
OPEC KEEPS WORLD OIL DEMAND GROWTH OUTLOOK UNCHANGED
The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) declined in March by $3.43, or 4.2%, m-o-m to average $78.45/b. The ICE Brent first-month contract fell by $4.33, o ...
Sunday, 16 April 23
CHEAPER SPOT LNG PRICES TEMPT SOME ASIAN BUYERS AMID SUPPLY GAINS - REUTERS
Cheaper spot prices for liquefied natural gas (LNG) are luring price-sensitive buyers back in Asia, with China and India recording rising imports i ...
Tuesday, 11 April 23
COAL USE CLIMBS WORLDWIDE DESPITE PROMISES TO SLASH IT - AAP
The burning of coal for electricity, cement, steel and other uses went up in 2022 despite global promises to phase down the fuel that is the bigges ...
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- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Planning Commission, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The University of Queensland
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
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