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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Tuesday, 23 May 23
INDIA: COAL OUTPUT UP 8.9%, SUPPLY RISES 11.7% IN APRIL - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
India’s coal production jumped 8.85% to 73.14 million tonne (MT) in April 2023 and the total coal despatch during the month went up 11.66% to ...
Tuesday, 23 May 23
CHINA COAL OUTPUT UP 4.5 PCT IN APRIL - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted stable expansion in April, official data showed.
The country produced 380 million tonnes of raw ...
Saturday, 20 May 23
NON-OPEC OIL SUPPLY DEVELOPMENT - OPEC
In 2022, non-OPEC supply is estimated to have increased by 1.9 mb/d y-o-y. Out of this, US liquids production increased by 1.2 mb/d, mainly on the ...
Saturday, 20 May 23
GLOBAL COAL TRADE HAS REALLY PICKED UP PACE IN RECENT MONTHS, NOW FULLY BACK TO PRE-COVID LEVELS - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace in recent months, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels. In Jan-Apr 2023, total global seaborne coa ...
Saturday, 20 May 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
India is one of the world's largest coal producers and one of the world's largest importers of coal. The country uses coal mainly for power ...
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- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Planning Commission, India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
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