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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Friday, 17 April 20
PANDEMIC TO BRING ASIA'S 2020 GROWTH TO HALT FOR 1ST TIME IN 60 YEARS - IMF: REUTERS
Asia’s economic growth this year will grind to a halt for the first time in 60 years, as the coronavirus crisis takes an “unprecedented ...
Friday, 17 April 20
OPEC BRACES FOR OIL MARKET'S "HISTORIC SHOCK"
OPEC released its much anticipated April monthly report.
Crude Oil Price Movements
Crude oil prices collapsed in March 2020, rec ...
Friday, 17 April 20
SAUDI ARABIA'S MAY 2020 OSPS FOR CRUDE EXPORTS BODE WELL FOR ASIAN REFINERS - WOOD MACKENZIE
On 13 April, Saudi Arabia announced the Official Selling Prices (OSPs) for its May crude oil exports. The new OSPs speak volumes about Saudi Arabia ...
Friday, 17 April 20
SEABORNE COAL PRICES UNDER PRESSURE AS DEMAND SOFTENS IN CHINA, INDIA - CLYDE RUSSELL
Worrying signs are emerging for coal exporters to the world’s biggest markets in Asia, as top buyers China and India move to favour domestic ...
Thursday, 16 April 20
THERMAL POWER SECTOR FACES BLEAK SCENARIO POST-COVID SITUATION - THE HINDU BUSINESS LINE
The centre should take a fresh look at coal-energy value chain as the sector tops the chart on loan defaults.
Covid-19 may have serv ...
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- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
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