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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Friday, 01 May 20
GLOBAL COAL DEMAND TO FALL BY 8% IN Q1 2020 RELATIVE TO Q1 2019 - IEA
We expect global coal demand to fall by 8% in Q1 2020 relative to Q1 2019. This significant drop was driven by lower demand in the electricity sect ...
Friday, 01 May 20
LUKOIL SHARES LUBRICANT EXPERIENCE AFTER FIRST 100 DAYS OF OPERATION ON VLSFO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
After 100 days of VLSFO operation, LUKOIL Marine Lubricants is sharing recent experience on VLSFO operation with NAVIGO M ...
Wednesday, 29 April 20
OIL CLOSES IN ON PEAK OVERSUPPLY - WOOD MACKENZIE
Are we now deep in the abyss? Up to our necks in it, if the oil price is any guide. Brent has now tested sub-US$20/bbl in this downturn and WTI sub ...
Monday, 27 April 20
INCIDENT INVESTIGATION: SEARCH FOR THE CAUSE, NOT THE VILLAIN - GARD
Incident investigations often conclude with placing the blame for an incident on the crew. Causes of the incidents are usually identified as proced ...
Monday, 27 April 20
A 58,000DWT VESSEL WAS FIXED DELIVERY SINGAPORE TRIP VIA INDONESIA, RE-DELIVERY WC INDIA, AT $4,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The tide turned this week for the Capesize market, as voyage rates registered dramatically falling fuel costs. This was led primarily ...
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- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- Planning Commission, India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
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