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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Sunday, 10 September 23
CHINA AUGUST COAL IMPORTS OF 44.3 MLN T HIT RECORD - REUTERS
China, the world’s top coal consumer, imported 44.3 million metric tons of the fuel last month, customs data showed, the highest amount in an ...
Tuesday, 22 August 23
CHINA'S COAL PRODUCTION LOGS STEADY GROWTH IN JANUARY-JULY: XINHUA
China’s output of raw coal went up 3.6 percent year on year in the first seven months of this year, official data showed.
The ...
Sunday, 13 August 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: LNG SUPPLY RISKS LINGER - ING
Energy – OPEC sees deficit over remainder of 2023
Oil prices came under some pressure yesterday with ICE Brent settling a litt ...
Wednesday, 09 August 23
COAL TRADE TO RETURN TO 2019 LEVELS - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The International Energy Agency’s mid-year Coal Market Update for 2023 brings both positive and concerning news for the global coal industry. ...
Sunday, 23 July 23
ANALYSIS-INDIA'S COAL MINING BET STUMBLES AS WARY BANKS WEIGH RISING RISKS - REUTERS
India’s drive to ramp up coal output to meet growing energy demand is faltering due to banks’ reluctance to finance newly auctioned min ...
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- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Planning Commission, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
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