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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Thursday, 09 November 23
GREEK AND CHINESE COMPANIES OWN 34% OF THE GLOBAL FLEET’S CARGO CAPACITY - BIMCO
“The global fleet of cargo carrying ships consists of around 61,000 ships with a deadweight capacity of about 2,200 million tonnes. The ships ...
Monday, 23 October 23
CHINA SEPT COAL OUTPUT HITS SIX-MONTH HIGH ON RISING POWER DEMAND - REUTERS
China’s September coal output rose 0.4% from August to the highest level since March, official data showed on Wednesday, on rising power dema ...
Monday, 23 October 23
INDIA COAL INVENTORIES DROP AT FASTEST PACE IN TWO YEARS, BOOSTING IMPORTS - REUTERS
Coal inventories at Indian power plants in the first half of October fell at their fastest rate in two years, an analysis of government data showed ...
Tuesday, 19 September 23
LNG SHIPPING STOCKS: THE ASIAN GROWTH UP-INDICES
Last week, the UP World LNG Shipping Index (UPI) gained 3.81 points or 2.51%, closing at 155.85 points. This index tracks the performance of LNG sh ...
Sunday, 10 September 23
GOLDMAN SACHS PREDICTS OIL PRICE TO HIT $100 ON OPEC CUTS - YAHOO FINANCE
Oil supply cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia could lead to Brent crude jumping as high as $107 a barrel in 2024, Goldman Sachs Commodities Research h ...
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- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
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