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Wednesday, 25 March 20
CORONAVIRUS CRISIS IS CRUSHING GLOBAL GDP GROWTH - FITCH RATINGS
 The coronavirus crisis is crushing global GDP growth according to Fitch Ratings in its latest quarterly “Global Economic Outlook” (GEO) published today.
“The level of world GDP is falling. For all intents and purposes we are in global recession territory,” said Brian Coulton, chief economist at Fitch Ratings.
We have nearly halved the Fitch baseline global growth forecast for 2020 – to just 1.3% from 2.5% in the December 2019 GEO. The revision leaves 2020 global GDP USD850 billion lower than in the previous forecast. But we could very easily see an outright decline in global GDP this year if more pervasive lockdown measures have to be rolled out across all the G7 economies. Emergency macro policy responses are purely about damage limitation at this stage but should help secure a ‘V-shaped’ recovery in 2H20, although this assumes that the health crisis eases.
The shock to the Chinese economy has been very severe. GDP is likely to fall by over 5% (not annualised) in 1Q20 and to be down by 1% year-on-year. Falling GDP in China is virtually unprecedented and, in the near term at least, these numbers look worse than most previous hypothetical ‘hard-landing’ scenarios. The good news is that the daily number of new COVID-19 cases in China has fallen very sharply, which should pave the way for a marked economic recovery in 2Q20 – high-frequency indicators already point to this starting in March.
Nevertheless, the delayed impact of supply-chain disruptions and lower Chinese demand on the rest of the world will continue to be felt profoundly for some time, particularly in the rest of Asia and the eurozone.
Moreover the rapid spread of the virus outside China has prompted sharp declines in travel and tourism, and the cancellation of business and leisure events worldwide as ‘social distancing’ takes hold. And some other large advanced countries – most notably Italy and Spain (and more recently in France, though after our forecast numbers were finalized) have engaged in aggressive official lockdown responses similar to those seen in China. These countries are likely to see very sizeable outright declines in GDP in the coming months.
The interruptions to economic activity seen in China – and now in Italy – are on a scale and speed rarely seen other than during periods of military conflict, natural disasters or financial crises. While there is huge uncertainty, quarterly declines in GDP of 3% to 5% (not annualised) in a full lockdown scenario look feasible. The risk is that we shortly see these abrupt interruptions happening simultaneously across all major economies as the global pandemic spreads.
Our baseline global economic forecasts have been aggressively lowered. Even though we expect a recovery in China from 2Q20, Chinese growth is expected to fall just 3.7% for the year as a whole, down from 6.1% in 2019. We forecast Italian GDP to fall by 2% this year and Spanish GDP by almost 1%.
Our baseline forecasts do not yet assume that full-scale lockdowns take place in across all the major European countries or the US (forecasts were finalised on 16 March). But even on this basis we now expect eurozone growth to be minus 0.4% this year. The baseline forecast for US growth is 1% in 2020 compared with a pre-virus outlook of 2% and GDP is expected to fall by 0.5% (or 2% annualised) in 2Q20.
This reflects the likelihood that travel, tourism, and business and leisure events will be disrupted for months, the collapse in the equity market, lower business and consumer confidence, and other disruptions to US economic activity that are emerging as authorities seek to contain the virus. We expect global growth to fall to 1.3% in 2020 from 2.7% in 2019, which would be weaker than global downturns in the early 1990s and in 2001.
The high risk of escalating lockdown responses across the major economies means that the chances of a weaker outcome are very substantial. A downside variant to our baseline forecast shows global GDP falling this year – an extremely rare occurrence in the post-war period – with GDP in Europe down by over 1.5%, US GDP down by nearly 1% and Chinese growth slipping to just over 2%.
Our oil price forecast has been lowered to USD41/bbl (Brent) for 2020 (annual average) from USD62.5/bbl in the December GEO. With the collapse of ‘OPEC+’ co-operation boosting prospects for OPEC supply, we now expect oil prices to average USD48/bbl in 2021 compared to our previous forecast of USD60/bbl.
Emergency macro policy responses are being announced on a massive scale, following a similar playbook to the global financial crisis. These include aggressive interest rate cuts, huge injections of central bank liquidity, macro-prudential easing and the creation of credit support facilities. Large-scale fiscal easing packages and the unveiling of hundred billion dollar-scale sovereign credit-guarantee schemes are also being used to help the private sector withstand shocks from measures necessary to contain the health crisis.
“Rapid and large-scale macro policy responses are all about damage limitation in the near-term, but policy easing should help GDP normalize and recover quickly in the second half of the year on the assumption that the health crisis subsides,” said Coulton. “However the uncertainties here are huge and we are really only at the beginning of the process of trying to understand the full impact of the crisis on the world economy”.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Monday, 09 March 20
OPEC+ 'NO DEAL' A BLOW TO THE MARKET - WOOD MACKENZIE
Speaking after today’s OPEC+ meeting broke up, Ann-Louise Hittle, vice president, Macro Oils, at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Today’s o ...
Monday, 09 March 20
KOREA EAST-WEST POWER INVITED BIDS FOR 150,000 MT OF MIN 4,400 - MAX 5,499 NAR COAL
COALspot.com: KOREA EAST-WEST POWER CO. LTD. of South Korea has issued an international tender for total 150,000 MT of LCV coal for May – Jun ...
Sunday, 08 March 20
SUPRAMAX: A 55,000DWT VESSEL FIXING DELIVERY FROM EAST KALIMANTAN FOR A TRIP TO VIETNAM AT $9,100 - BALTIC BRIEFING
SUPRAMAX/ULTRAMAX - A 56,000DWT VESSEL FIXED DELIVERY SOUTH CHINA TRIP VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY EAST COAST INDIA, IN THE $6,000S
SUPRAMAX/U ...
Friday, 06 March 20
CHINA RESUMES 83.4 PCT COAL PRODUCTION CAPACITY AMID EPIDEMIC - XINHUA
China has resumed 83.4 percent of its coal production capacity amid the fight against the novel coronavirus outbreak, the National Energy Administr ...
Friday, 06 March 20
COLOMBIAN COAL OUTPUT FELL 2% IN 2019 - REUTERS
Coal production in Colombia, the fifth-largest coal exporter in the world, fell 2% to 82.2 million tonnes in 2019 after output at one of the princi ...
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- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Australian Coal Association
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
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