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Wednesday, 25 March 20
CORONAVIRUS CRISIS IS CRUSHING GLOBAL GDP GROWTH - FITCH RATINGS
 The coronavirus crisis is crushing global GDP growth according to Fitch Ratings in its latest quarterly “Global Economic Outlook” (GEO) published today.
“The level of world GDP is falling. For all intents and purposes we are in global recession territory,” said Brian Coulton, chief economist at Fitch Ratings.
We have nearly halved the Fitch baseline global growth forecast for 2020 – to just 1.3% from 2.5% in the December 2019 GEO. The revision leaves 2020 global GDP USD850 billion lower than in the previous forecast. But we could very easily see an outright decline in global GDP this year if more pervasive lockdown measures have to be rolled out across all the G7 economies. Emergency macro policy responses are purely about damage limitation at this stage but should help secure a ‘V-shaped’ recovery in 2H20, although this assumes that the health crisis eases.
The shock to the Chinese economy has been very severe. GDP is likely to fall by over 5% (not annualised) in 1Q20 and to be down by 1% year-on-year. Falling GDP in China is virtually unprecedented and, in the near term at least, these numbers look worse than most previous hypothetical ‘hard-landing’ scenarios. The good news is that the daily number of new COVID-19 cases in China has fallen very sharply, which should pave the way for a marked economic recovery in 2Q20 – high-frequency indicators already point to this starting in March.
Nevertheless, the delayed impact of supply-chain disruptions and lower Chinese demand on the rest of the world will continue to be felt profoundly for some time, particularly in the rest of Asia and the eurozone.
Moreover the rapid spread of the virus outside China has prompted sharp declines in travel and tourism, and the cancellation of business and leisure events worldwide as ‘social distancing’ takes hold. And some other large advanced countries – most notably Italy and Spain (and more recently in France, though after our forecast numbers were finalized) have engaged in aggressive official lockdown responses similar to those seen in China. These countries are likely to see very sizeable outright declines in GDP in the coming months.
The interruptions to economic activity seen in China – and now in Italy – are on a scale and speed rarely seen other than during periods of military conflict, natural disasters or financial crises. While there is huge uncertainty, quarterly declines in GDP of 3% to 5% (not annualised) in a full lockdown scenario look feasible. The risk is that we shortly see these abrupt interruptions happening simultaneously across all major economies as the global pandemic spreads.
Our baseline global economic forecasts have been aggressively lowered. Even though we expect a recovery in China from 2Q20, Chinese growth is expected to fall just 3.7% for the year as a whole, down from 6.1% in 2019. We forecast Italian GDP to fall by 2% this year and Spanish GDP by almost 1%.
Our baseline forecasts do not yet assume that full-scale lockdowns take place in across all the major European countries or the US (forecasts were finalised on 16 March). But even on this basis we now expect eurozone growth to be minus 0.4% this year. The baseline forecast for US growth is 1% in 2020 compared with a pre-virus outlook of 2% and GDP is expected to fall by 0.5% (or 2% annualised) in 2Q20.
This reflects the likelihood that travel, tourism, and business and leisure events will be disrupted for months, the collapse in the equity market, lower business and consumer confidence, and other disruptions to US economic activity that are emerging as authorities seek to contain the virus. We expect global growth to fall to 1.3% in 2020 from 2.7% in 2019, which would be weaker than global downturns in the early 1990s and in 2001.
The high risk of escalating lockdown responses across the major economies means that the chances of a weaker outcome are very substantial. A downside variant to our baseline forecast shows global GDP falling this year – an extremely rare occurrence in the post-war period – with GDP in Europe down by over 1.5%, US GDP down by nearly 1% and Chinese growth slipping to just over 2%.
Our oil price forecast has been lowered to USD41/bbl (Brent) for 2020 (annual average) from USD62.5/bbl in the December GEO. With the collapse of ‘OPEC+’ co-operation boosting prospects for OPEC supply, we now expect oil prices to average USD48/bbl in 2021 compared to our previous forecast of USD60/bbl.
Emergency macro policy responses are being announced on a massive scale, following a similar playbook to the global financial crisis. These include aggressive interest rate cuts, huge injections of central bank liquidity, macro-prudential easing and the creation of credit support facilities. Large-scale fiscal easing packages and the unveiling of hundred billion dollar-scale sovereign credit-guarantee schemes are also being used to help the private sector withstand shocks from measures necessary to contain the health crisis.
“Rapid and large-scale macro policy responses are all about damage limitation in the near-term, but policy easing should help GDP normalize and recover quickly in the second half of the year on the assumption that the health crisis subsides,” said Coulton. “However the uncertainties here are huge and we are really only at the beginning of the process of trying to understand the full impact of the crisis on the world economy”.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Thursday, 16 April 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE FALLS 5 YUAN PER TONNE - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price fell by 5 yuan (about 70 U.S. cents) per tonne during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Co ...
Thursday, 16 April 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As everyone anticipated the results of the OPEC + G20 meeting last week, it was very interesting to watch the reaction of tanker rates that were in ...
Monday, 13 April 20
SUPRAMAX: A 56,000DWT SHIP WAS FIXED DELIVERY PARADIP, REDELIVERY CHINA, AT $4,700 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market this past week looks to have come off life support and found some improved sentiment. The week began rather ordina ...
Saturday, 11 April 20
FAQ: COVID-19 AND CLUB COVER - UK P&I
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has generated a significant number of enquiries and questions from Members in recent ...
Saturday, 11 April 20
KOEN POWER PLANTS INVITED BIDS FOR 1.5 -1.62 MMT OF STEAM COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea’s KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO., LTD. (KOEN) has issued an international tender for 1,500,000-1,620,000 Metric Tons (M ...
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- Parliament of New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The University of Queensland
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Planning Commission, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
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