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Wednesday, 25 March 20
CORONAVIRUS CRISIS IS CRUSHING GLOBAL GDP GROWTH - FITCH RATINGS
 The coronavirus crisis is crushing global GDP growth according to Fitch Ratings in its latest quarterly “Global Economic Outlook” (GEO) published today.
“The level of world GDP is falling. For all intents and purposes we are in global recession territory,” said Brian Coulton, chief economist at Fitch Ratings.
We have nearly halved the Fitch baseline global growth forecast for 2020 – to just 1.3% from 2.5% in the December 2019 GEO. The revision leaves 2020 global GDP USD850 billion lower than in the previous forecast. But we could very easily see an outright decline in global GDP this year if more pervasive lockdown measures have to be rolled out across all the G7 economies. Emergency macro policy responses are purely about damage limitation at this stage but should help secure a ‘V-shaped’ recovery in 2H20, although this assumes that the health crisis eases.
The shock to the Chinese economy has been very severe. GDP is likely to fall by over 5% (not annualised) in 1Q20 and to be down by 1% year-on-year. Falling GDP in China is virtually unprecedented and, in the near term at least, these numbers look worse than most previous hypothetical ‘hard-landing’ scenarios. The good news is that the daily number of new COVID-19 cases in China has fallen very sharply, which should pave the way for a marked economic recovery in 2Q20 – high-frequency indicators already point to this starting in March.
Nevertheless, the delayed impact of supply-chain disruptions and lower Chinese demand on the rest of the world will continue to be felt profoundly for some time, particularly in the rest of Asia and the eurozone.
Moreover the rapid spread of the virus outside China has prompted sharp declines in travel and tourism, and the cancellation of business and leisure events worldwide as ‘social distancing’ takes hold. And some other large advanced countries – most notably Italy and Spain (and more recently in France, though after our forecast numbers were finalized) have engaged in aggressive official lockdown responses similar to those seen in China. These countries are likely to see very sizeable outright declines in GDP in the coming months.
The interruptions to economic activity seen in China – and now in Italy – are on a scale and speed rarely seen other than during periods of military conflict, natural disasters or financial crises. While there is huge uncertainty, quarterly declines in GDP of 3% to 5% (not annualised) in a full lockdown scenario look feasible. The risk is that we shortly see these abrupt interruptions happening simultaneously across all major economies as the global pandemic spreads.
Our baseline global economic forecasts have been aggressively lowered. Even though we expect a recovery in China from 2Q20, Chinese growth is expected to fall just 3.7% for the year as a whole, down from 6.1% in 2019. We forecast Italian GDP to fall by 2% this year and Spanish GDP by almost 1%.
Our baseline forecasts do not yet assume that full-scale lockdowns take place in across all the major European countries or the US (forecasts were finalised on 16 March). But even on this basis we now expect eurozone growth to be minus 0.4% this year. The baseline forecast for US growth is 1% in 2020 compared with a pre-virus outlook of 2% and GDP is expected to fall by 0.5% (or 2% annualised) in 2Q20.
This reflects the likelihood that travel, tourism, and business and leisure events will be disrupted for months, the collapse in the equity market, lower business and consumer confidence, and other disruptions to US economic activity that are emerging as authorities seek to contain the virus. We expect global growth to fall to 1.3% in 2020 from 2.7% in 2019, which would be weaker than global downturns in the early 1990s and in 2001.
The high risk of escalating lockdown responses across the major economies means that the chances of a weaker outcome are very substantial. A downside variant to our baseline forecast shows global GDP falling this year – an extremely rare occurrence in the post-war period – with GDP in Europe down by over 1.5%, US GDP down by nearly 1% and Chinese growth slipping to just over 2%.
Our oil price forecast has been lowered to USD41/bbl (Brent) for 2020 (annual average) from USD62.5/bbl in the December GEO. With the collapse of ‘OPEC+’ co-operation boosting prospects for OPEC supply, we now expect oil prices to average USD48/bbl in 2021 compared to our previous forecast of USD60/bbl.
Emergency macro policy responses are being announced on a massive scale, following a similar playbook to the global financial crisis. These include aggressive interest rate cuts, huge injections of central bank liquidity, macro-prudential easing and the creation of credit support facilities. Large-scale fiscal easing packages and the unveiling of hundred billion dollar-scale sovereign credit-guarantee schemes are also being used to help the private sector withstand shocks from measures necessary to contain the health crisis.
“Rapid and large-scale macro policy responses are all about damage limitation in the near-term, but policy easing should help GDP normalize and recover quickly in the second half of the year on the assumption that the health crisis subsides,” said Coulton. “However the uncertainties here are huge and we are really only at the beginning of the process of trying to understand the full impact of the crisis on the world economy”.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Tuesday, 05 May 20
SUPRAMAXES: YTD SLIDE HAS BEEN 45%, WITH THE AVERAGE FOR 2020 TCA HOLDING AT US$5,793 - ALLIED
It has been almost three months since the WHO officially categorized the current coronavirus outbreak as a global pandemic, an outbreak that has br ...
Monday, 04 May 20
U.S. ESTIMATED COAL PRODUCTION FALL 39.4% YEAR ON YEAR IN THE WEEK ENDED APRIL 25 - EIA
Estimated U.S. coal production totaled about 8.6 million short tons (MMst) For the week ended April 25, 2020, says EIA in its latest report.
E ...
Saturday, 02 May 20
SUPRAMAX: ASIA, STRONGER NUMBERS - A 55.000-DWT WAS FIXED FROM INDONESIA TO CHINA IN THE MID $6,000S - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A tepid week for the big ships, as macro concerns continued to weigh heavily on the index. All of the major voyage routes lost value, ...
Friday, 01 May 20
KOSPO INVITED OFFER FOR 5600 NCV COAL FOR Q3 2020 LOADING
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an International tender for 260,000 Metric Tons (MT) steam coal for Boryeong Power ...
Friday, 01 May 20
GLOBAL COAL DEMAND TO FALL BY ABOUT 8% IN 2020,THE LARGEST DROP SINCE WORLD WAR II - IEA
We expect global coal demand to fall by about 8% in 2020, the largest drop since World War II, with coal use declining in virtually every sector of ...
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- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
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