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Wednesday, 25 March 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 There is no doubt that the Covid-19 pandemic crisis is a world-shattering event that will change the world as we know it. Societies are facing challenging moments, markets have been violently disrupted and it will become even more visible later on that governments around the world will experience major shifts in their respective political and economic power.
As we have already witnessed, Brent prices are experiencing their lowest levels in 17 years, closing at $27.2 per barrel last Friday, whereas West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) closed at $23 per barrel. According to Goldman Sachs analysts, the price of Brent, which is the international benchmark, “could dip as low as $20 per barrel and test operational stress levels”.
A week ago, Bank of America warned that the US is close to a new major recession due to the worldwide spread of the Covid-19. Simultaneously, oil producing countries keep on increasing their production at record levels amidst a price war between Russia and Saudi Arabia, after OPEC+ (OPEC and Russia) failed to come to a consensus over additional production cuts. Official selling prices lowered by as much as 20% have been also used as “weapons” in this price war.
At the moment, global demand for oil hovers around 100 million barrels per day. Yet, as consumption is gradually decreasing due to the tremendous economic shake of the COVID-19 and the subsequent containment measures, demand could possibly plunge an additional 20% according to some first estimations. The final outcome of this crisis still remains unknown; however, certain analysts reassure that some more optimistic scenarios are possible to play out. According to Andreas de Vries, advisor at Saudi Aramco, the successful containment policies against the Covid-19 pandemic and the implementation of stimulus packages could stem the secondary and tertiary effects on the economy.
The oil market status quo calls for an a pragmatic resolution aiming to terminate the price war. Nevertheless, a termination of the price war will not be able to push prices back to $60 plus per barrel, with levels around $40 seeming more realistic if major producers come to an agreement. As de Vries highlights, even in the best-case scenario, the average crude price will still remain considerably below what most producing countries need in order to successfully balance their respective budgets. Indeed, the extent of the virus containment measures that are currently being implemented will affect to a massive degree a number of sectors that are heavyweights for the economies of many of the producing nations, like tourism for example.
At the same time there is a growing number of voices that warns for a series of major economic consequences, with the worst-case scenario being a global economy devastated by a wave of continuous bankruptcies. We are seeing significant economic stimulus announced around the world, with the U.S. expected to reach soon a deal on a $2 trillion coronavirus aid, but the effectiveness of the implementation of these packages remains uncertain at this stage. A failure of these stimulus measures to support vital sectors of the economies around the world will lead to a prolonged crisis that could prove worse than the big downturn of 2008, but for now let’s remain reservedly optimistic and hope it doesn’t come to that.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 11 March 20
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
On the 4th of September the Baltic Dry Index marked its highest level for 2019, reaching 2,518 points, while the rest of the dry indices also recor ...
Tuesday, 10 March 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS
It might be already overstated, but it seems to be important to point out once again how peculiar the current circumstances are.
Before the st ...
Tuesday, 10 March 20
EIA FORECASTS U.S ELECTRIC POWER SECTOR DEMAND FOR COAL WILL FALL BY 81 MMST (15%) IN 2020
EIA forecasts that U.S. coal production will total 595 million short tons (MMst) in 2020, down 95 MMst (14%) from 2019. According to EIA's Shor ...
Tuesday, 10 March 20
CORONAVIRUS: DEMAND DOWNGRADES FOR BULK COMMODITIES - WOOD MACKENZIE
The coronavirus outbreak is a rapidly evolving news story – and a real wildcard for bulks demand. Our global experts are monitoring the impac ...
Tuesday, 10 March 20
CHINA'S COAL-RICH PROVINCE ENSURES ENERGY SUPPLY AMID EPIDEMIC - XINHUA
China’s coal-rich province of Shanxi has seen more than 500 coal mines resume production in February, which ensured energy supply amid the ou ...
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- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Australian Coal Association
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
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