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Wednesday, 25 March 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 There is no doubt that the Covid-19 pandemic crisis is a world-shattering event that will change the world as we know it. Societies are facing challenging moments, markets have been violently disrupted and it will become even more visible later on that governments around the world will experience major shifts in their respective political and economic power.
As we have already witnessed, Brent prices are experiencing their lowest levels in 17 years, closing at $27.2 per barrel last Friday, whereas West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) closed at $23 per barrel. According to Goldman Sachs analysts, the price of Brent, which is the international benchmark, “could dip as low as $20 per barrel and test operational stress levels”.
A week ago, Bank of America warned that the US is close to a new major recession due to the worldwide spread of the Covid-19. Simultaneously, oil producing countries keep on increasing their production at record levels amidst a price war between Russia and Saudi Arabia, after OPEC+ (OPEC and Russia) failed to come to a consensus over additional production cuts. Official selling prices lowered by as much as 20% have been also used as “weapons” in this price war.
At the moment, global demand for oil hovers around 100 million barrels per day. Yet, as consumption is gradually decreasing due to the tremendous economic shake of the COVID-19 and the subsequent containment measures, demand could possibly plunge an additional 20% according to some first estimations. The final outcome of this crisis still remains unknown; however, certain analysts reassure that some more optimistic scenarios are possible to play out. According to Andreas de Vries, advisor at Saudi Aramco, the successful containment policies against the Covid-19 pandemic and the implementation of stimulus packages could stem the secondary and tertiary effects on the economy.
The oil market status quo calls for an a pragmatic resolution aiming to terminate the price war. Nevertheless, a termination of the price war will not be able to push prices back to $60 plus per barrel, with levels around $40 seeming more realistic if major producers come to an agreement. As de Vries highlights, even in the best-case scenario, the average crude price will still remain considerably below what most producing countries need in order to successfully balance their respective budgets. Indeed, the extent of the virus containment measures that are currently being implemented will affect to a massive degree a number of sectors that are heavyweights for the economies of many of the producing nations, like tourism for example.
At the same time there is a growing number of voices that warns for a series of major economic consequences, with the worst-case scenario being a global economy devastated by a wave of continuous bankruptcies. We are seeing significant economic stimulus announced around the world, with the U.S. expected to reach soon a deal on a $2 trillion coronavirus aid, but the effectiveness of the implementation of these packages remains uncertain at this stage. A failure of these stimulus measures to support vital sectors of the economies around the world will lead to a prolonged crisis that could prove worse than the big downturn of 2008, but for now let’s remain reservedly optimistic and hope it doesn’t come to that.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 07 April 20
IS CHINA EMBARKING ON A MAJOR EXPANSION OF COAL-FIRED POWER GENERATION? - WOOD MACKENZIE
As energy companies worldwide grapple with the economic impact of the coronavirus pandemic, long-term planning continues. Ahead of the release of t ...
Tuesday, 07 April 20
COAL INDIA'S DISPATCHES DROP, OUTPUT INCREASES - THE HINDU
India’s largest coal producer Coal India Ltd. (CIL) has seen a 10% fall in dispatches in March 2020 due to a sharp fall in demand from the po ...
Tuesday, 07 April 20
CORONAVIRUS AND LOCKDOWNS DRAG DOWN THE INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE IN APRIL
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of the Indonesian ther ...
Monday, 06 April 20
A 52,000DWT SHIP FIXING DELIVERY SINGAPORE TRIP, VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY TAIWAN, AT $3,100 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market this past week looks to have come off life support and found some improved sentiment. The week began rather ordina ...
Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this me ...
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- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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