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Wednesday, 25 March 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 There is no doubt that the Covid-19 pandemic crisis is a world-shattering event that will change the world as we know it. Societies are facing challenging moments, markets have been violently disrupted and it will become even more visible later on that governments around the world will experience major shifts in their respective political and economic power.
As we have already witnessed, Brent prices are experiencing their lowest levels in 17 years, closing at $27.2 per barrel last Friday, whereas West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) closed at $23 per barrel. According to Goldman Sachs analysts, the price of Brent, which is the international benchmark, “could dip as low as $20 per barrel and test operational stress levels”.
A week ago, Bank of America warned that the US is close to a new major recession due to the worldwide spread of the Covid-19. Simultaneously, oil producing countries keep on increasing their production at record levels amidst a price war between Russia and Saudi Arabia, after OPEC+ (OPEC and Russia) failed to come to a consensus over additional production cuts. Official selling prices lowered by as much as 20% have been also used as “weapons” in this price war.
At the moment, global demand for oil hovers around 100 million barrels per day. Yet, as consumption is gradually decreasing due to the tremendous economic shake of the COVID-19 and the subsequent containment measures, demand could possibly plunge an additional 20% according to some first estimations. The final outcome of this crisis still remains unknown; however, certain analysts reassure that some more optimistic scenarios are possible to play out. According to Andreas de Vries, advisor at Saudi Aramco, the successful containment policies against the Covid-19 pandemic and the implementation of stimulus packages could stem the secondary and tertiary effects on the economy.
The oil market status quo calls for an a pragmatic resolution aiming to terminate the price war. Nevertheless, a termination of the price war will not be able to push prices back to $60 plus per barrel, with levels around $40 seeming more realistic if major producers come to an agreement. As de Vries highlights, even in the best-case scenario, the average crude price will still remain considerably below what most producing countries need in order to successfully balance their respective budgets. Indeed, the extent of the virus containment measures that are currently being implemented will affect to a massive degree a number of sectors that are heavyweights for the economies of many of the producing nations, like tourism for example.
At the same time there is a growing number of voices that warns for a series of major economic consequences, with the worst-case scenario being a global economy devastated by a wave of continuous bankruptcies. We are seeing significant economic stimulus announced around the world, with the U.S. expected to reach soon a deal on a $2 trillion coronavirus aid, but the effectiveness of the implementation of these packages remains uncertain at this stage. A failure of these stimulus measures to support vital sectors of the economies around the world will lead to a prolonged crisis that could prove worse than the big downturn of 2008, but for now let’s remain reservedly optimistic and hope it doesn’t come to that.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 10 September 23
CHINA AUGUST COAL IMPORTS OF 44.3 MLN T HIT RECORD - REUTERS
China, the world’s top coal consumer, imported 44.3 million metric tons of the fuel last month, customs data showed, the highest amount in an ...
Tuesday, 22 August 23
CHINA'S COAL PRODUCTION LOGS STEADY GROWTH IN JANUARY-JULY: XINHUA
China’s output of raw coal went up 3.6 percent year on year in the first seven months of this year, official data showed.
The ...
Sunday, 13 August 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: LNG SUPPLY RISKS LINGER - ING
Energy – OPEC sees deficit over remainder of 2023
Oil prices came under some pressure yesterday with ICE Brent settling a litt ...
Wednesday, 09 August 23
COAL TRADE TO RETURN TO 2019 LEVELS - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The International Energy Agency’s mid-year Coal Market Update for 2023 brings both positive and concerning news for the global coal industry. ...
Sunday, 23 July 23
ANALYSIS-INDIA'S COAL MINING BET STUMBLES AS WARY BANKS WEIGH RISING RISKS - REUTERS
India’s drive to ramp up coal output to meet growing energy demand is faltering due to banks’ reluctance to finance newly auctioned min ...
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- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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