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Friday, 20 March 20
VOLATILITY TO INCREASE IN TANKER MARKET FOLLOWING OIL PRICE WAR - DREWRY
Crude oil prices plunged by more than a third in the past week after OPEC+ failed to agree on production cut as demand softened in the aftermath of coronavirus (COVID-19). In its recent report, the IEA estimates global oil demand at 99.9 mbpd in 2020, which is around 90,000 bpd lower than in 2019 and a sharp downgrade from the agency’s forecast in February, which predicted global oil demand will grow 825,000 bpd in 2020.
The market expected OPEC+ to cut supply as the COVID-19 epidemic has spread from China to Europe, the Americas and Middle East. However, the negotiations failed due to strong resistance from Russia, which is of the view that the policy of capping production by OPEC+ producers to support the oil price is facilitating the development of US shale oil, with Russia losing its market share to increasing exports from the US.
After the failure of production cut talks in Vienna, Saudi Arabia started a price war by slashing the official selling prices for crude for key buyers in the international market and hinted at raising crude oil production to full capacity of 12.3 mbpd from April 2020. The ‘shock and awe’ tactics of Saudi Arabia could be a move to impose maximum pain in the quickest possible way to Russia and other producers, in an effort to renegotiate the proposed production cut and then quickly reverse the production surge and thereafter implement the production cut if a deal is reached.
However, the recent move by Saudi Arabia could lead to:
a) Renegotiation on a production cut between OPEC and Russia
b) Prolonged price war between OPEC, Russia and US producers
If there are fresh negotiations to implement a production cut by OPEC+ producers to accommodate the effect of declining oil demand, crude oil prices are expected to normalise.
But if there is a prolonged price war between Saudi Arabia, Russia and US shale oil producers, lower crude oil prices will lead to some improvement in global oil demand and refinery runs. At the same time, onshore stocking activity will also increase, especially in countries such as China as they build their Strategic Petroleum Reserve. A global supply glut is also likely to lead to an increase in floating storage especially among oil producers.
At the same time, sustained weakness in oil prices will eventually hurt US shale oil producers because of their relatively higher cost of production. In such circumstances, the market share of Middle Eastern crude will increase at the expense of US crude.
Meanwhile, tanker rates surged due to a sudden increase in VLCC chartering from Bahri, Saudi Arabia’s national shipping arm. Bahri fixed at least 18 VLCCs since the Kingdom aims to pump more crude into the market as its price war with Russia escalates. The VLCC earnings on Middle East–China (TD3C) route skyrocketed to $166,000pd on 11 March from $30,300pd on 06 March.
If Saudi Arabia manages to strike a deal with Russia to cut production in the short term, tanker rates will plummet to the pre-price war levels because of the ongoing weakness in crude oil trade on account of the spread of COVID-19 globally. On the other hand, if there is a prolonged price war, tonnage demand will rise initially with the increase in oil demand and stocking activity, which in turn will keep freight rates above pre-price war levels.
However, once sustained weakness in oil prices starts hurting US crude production, Middle Eastern crude will start displacing US crude in Asia. This in turn will squeeze tonne-mile demand for tankers as the distance between the US to Asia is almost double the distance between the Middle East to Asia. Thus we estimate that every barrel per day of annual decline in US exports to Asia at the expense of the Middle East will lead to about a 2.5% decline in overall tonne-mile demand for tankers. Freight rates in such a situation will plunge below the pre-price war levels.
Source: Drewry
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Saturday, 21 March 20
PANAMAX: 82,000DWT SHIP AGREED $4,250 FOR A COAL TRIP VIA INDONESIA REDELIVERY SOUTH CHINA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market made some headway this past week despite being buffeted by the global pandemic storm. With the market in a constan ...
Friday, 20 March 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE DROPS SLIGHTLY - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price dropped slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge ...
Friday, 20 March 20
OIL PRICES COULD FALL BELOW ZERO: ANALYST - FOX BUSINESS
Plunging oil prices could be headed a lot lower – possibly below zero, according to one Wall Street analyst.
West Texas Interm ...
Friday, 20 March 20
84% OF FEBRUARY BUNKER SALES IN SINGAPORE ARE LOW-SULPHUR FUELS - BIMCO
Low-sulphur fuels accounted for 84% of total February sales in Singapore, slightly up from 83% in January. The sale of low-sulphur fuel oil (LSFO) ...
Thursday, 19 March 20
A CRUDE TSUNAMI: UP TO 3 MILLION BPD OF EXTRA OIL CAN HIT THE MARKET FROM APRIL, MORE COMING IN MAY - RYSTAD ENERGY
The extra oil coming into the global market from April will be as much as 3 million barrels per day (bpd), Rystad Energy estimates. Two million bpd ...
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Showing 1056 to 1060 news of total 6871 |
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- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
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