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Friday, 20 March 20
VOLATILITY TO INCREASE IN TANKER MARKET FOLLOWING OIL PRICE WAR - DREWRY
Crude oil prices plunged by more than a third in the past week after OPEC+ failed to agree on production cut as demand softened in the aftermath of coronavirus (COVID-19). In its recent report, the IEA estimates global oil demand at 99.9 mbpd in 2020, which is around 90,000 bpd lower than in 2019 and a sharp downgrade from the agency’s forecast in February, which predicted global oil demand will grow 825,000 bpd in 2020.
The market expected OPEC+ to cut supply as the COVID-19 epidemic has spread from China to Europe, the Americas and Middle East. However, the negotiations failed due to strong resistance from Russia, which is of the view that the policy of capping production by OPEC+ producers to support the oil price is facilitating the development of US shale oil, with Russia losing its market share to increasing exports from the US.
After the failure of production cut talks in Vienna, Saudi Arabia started a price war by slashing the official selling prices for crude for key buyers in the international market and hinted at raising crude oil production to full capacity of 12.3 mbpd from April 2020. The ‘shock and awe’ tactics of Saudi Arabia could be a move to impose maximum pain in the quickest possible way to Russia and other producers, in an effort to renegotiate the proposed production cut and then quickly reverse the production surge and thereafter implement the production cut if a deal is reached.
However, the recent move by Saudi Arabia could lead to:
a) Renegotiation on a production cut between OPEC and Russia
b) Prolonged price war between OPEC, Russia and US producers
If there are fresh negotiations to implement a production cut by OPEC+ producers to accommodate the effect of declining oil demand, crude oil prices are expected to normalise.
But if there is a prolonged price war between Saudi Arabia, Russia and US shale oil producers, lower crude oil prices will lead to some improvement in global oil demand and refinery runs. At the same time, onshore stocking activity will also increase, especially in countries such as China as they build their Strategic Petroleum Reserve. A global supply glut is also likely to lead to an increase in floating storage especially among oil producers.
At the same time, sustained weakness in oil prices will eventually hurt US shale oil producers because of their relatively higher cost of production. In such circumstances, the market share of Middle Eastern crude will increase at the expense of US crude.
Meanwhile, tanker rates surged due to a sudden increase in VLCC chartering from Bahri, Saudi Arabia’s national shipping arm. Bahri fixed at least 18 VLCCs since the Kingdom aims to pump more crude into the market as its price war with Russia escalates. The VLCC earnings on Middle East–China (TD3C) route skyrocketed to $166,000pd on 11 March from $30,300pd on 06 March.
If Saudi Arabia manages to strike a deal with Russia to cut production in the short term, tanker rates will plummet to the pre-price war levels because of the ongoing weakness in crude oil trade on account of the spread of COVID-19 globally. On the other hand, if there is a prolonged price war, tonnage demand will rise initially with the increase in oil demand and stocking activity, which in turn will keep freight rates above pre-price war levels.
However, once sustained weakness in oil prices starts hurting US crude production, Middle Eastern crude will start displacing US crude in Asia. This in turn will squeeze tonne-mile demand for tankers as the distance between the US to Asia is almost double the distance between the Middle East to Asia. Thus we estimate that every barrel per day of annual decline in US exports to Asia at the expense of the Middle East will lead to about a 2.5% decline in overall tonne-mile demand for tankers. Freight rates in such a situation will plunge below the pre-price war levels.
Source: Drewry
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Saturday, 21 March 20
PANAMAX: 82,000DWT SHIP AGREED $4,250 FOR A COAL TRIP VIA INDONESIA REDELIVERY SOUTH CHINA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market made some headway this past week despite being buffeted by the global pandemic storm. With the market in a constan ...
Friday, 20 March 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE DROPS SLIGHTLY - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price dropped slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge ...
Friday, 20 March 20
OIL PRICES COULD FALL BELOW ZERO: ANALYST - FOX BUSINESS
Plunging oil prices could be headed a lot lower – possibly below zero, according to one Wall Street analyst.
West Texas Interm ...
Friday, 20 March 20
84% OF FEBRUARY BUNKER SALES IN SINGAPORE ARE LOW-SULPHUR FUELS - BIMCO
Low-sulphur fuels accounted for 84% of total February sales in Singapore, slightly up from 83% in January. The sale of low-sulphur fuel oil (LSFO) ...
Thursday, 19 March 20
A CRUDE TSUNAMI: UP TO 3 MILLION BPD OF EXTRA OIL CAN HIT THE MARKET FROM APRIL, MORE COMING IN MAY - RYSTAD ENERGY
The extra oil coming into the global market from April will be as much as 3 million barrels per day (bpd), Rystad Energy estimates. Two million bpd ...
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Showing 1056 to 1060 news of total 6871 |
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- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Minerals Council of Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Australian Coal Association
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Planning Commission, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- White Energy Company Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
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