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Friday, 20 March 20
VOLATILITY TO INCREASE IN TANKER MARKET FOLLOWING OIL PRICE WAR - DREWRY
Crude oil prices plunged by more than a third in the past week after OPEC+ failed to agree on production cut as demand softened in the aftermath of coronavirus (COVID-19). In its recent report, the IEA estimates global oil demand at 99.9 mbpd in 2020, which is around 90,000 bpd lower than in 2019 and a sharp downgrade from the agency’s forecast in February, which predicted global oil demand will grow 825,000 bpd in 2020.
The market expected OPEC+ to cut supply as the COVID-19 epidemic has spread from China to Europe, the Americas and Middle East. However, the negotiations failed due to strong resistance from Russia, which is of the view that the policy of capping production by OPEC+ producers to support the oil price is facilitating the development of US shale oil, with Russia losing its market share to increasing exports from the US.
After the failure of production cut talks in Vienna, Saudi Arabia started a price war by slashing the official selling prices for crude for key buyers in the international market and hinted at raising crude oil production to full capacity of 12.3 mbpd from April 2020. The ‘shock and awe’ tactics of Saudi Arabia could be a move to impose maximum pain in the quickest possible way to Russia and other producers, in an effort to renegotiate the proposed production cut and then quickly reverse the production surge and thereafter implement the production cut if a deal is reached.
However, the recent move by Saudi Arabia could lead to:
a) Renegotiation on a production cut between OPEC and Russia
b) Prolonged price war between OPEC, Russia and US producers
If there are fresh negotiations to implement a production cut by OPEC+ producers to accommodate the effect of declining oil demand, crude oil prices are expected to normalise.
But if there is a prolonged price war between Saudi Arabia, Russia and US shale oil producers, lower crude oil prices will lead to some improvement in global oil demand and refinery runs. At the same time, onshore stocking activity will also increase, especially in countries such as China as they build their Strategic Petroleum Reserve. A global supply glut is also likely to lead to an increase in floating storage especially among oil producers.
At the same time, sustained weakness in oil prices will eventually hurt US shale oil producers because of their relatively higher cost of production. In such circumstances, the market share of Middle Eastern crude will increase at the expense of US crude.
Meanwhile, tanker rates surged due to a sudden increase in VLCC chartering from Bahri, Saudi Arabia’s national shipping arm. Bahri fixed at least 18 VLCCs since the Kingdom aims to pump more crude into the market as its price war with Russia escalates. The VLCC earnings on Middle East–China (TD3C) route skyrocketed to $166,000pd on 11 March from $30,300pd on 06 March.
If Saudi Arabia manages to strike a deal with Russia to cut production in the short term, tanker rates will plummet to the pre-price war levels because of the ongoing weakness in crude oil trade on account of the spread of COVID-19 globally. On the other hand, if there is a prolonged price war, tonnage demand will rise initially with the increase in oil demand and stocking activity, which in turn will keep freight rates above pre-price war levels.
However, once sustained weakness in oil prices starts hurting US crude production, Middle Eastern crude will start displacing US crude in Asia. This in turn will squeeze tonne-mile demand for tankers as the distance between the US to Asia is almost double the distance between the Middle East to Asia. Thus we estimate that every barrel per day of annual decline in US exports to Asia at the expense of the Middle East will lead to about a 2.5% decline in overall tonne-mile demand for tankers. Freight rates in such a situation will plunge below the pre-price war levels.
Source: Drewry
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Tuesday, 23 May 23
INDIA: COAL OUTPUT UP 8.9%, SUPPLY RISES 11.7% IN APRIL - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
India’s coal production jumped 8.85% to 73.14 million tonne (MT) in April 2023 and the total coal despatch during the month went up 11.66% to ...
Tuesday, 23 May 23
CHINA COAL OUTPUT UP 4.5 PCT IN APRIL - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted stable expansion in April, official data showed.
The country produced 380 million tonnes of raw ...
Saturday, 20 May 23
NON-OPEC OIL SUPPLY DEVELOPMENT - OPEC
In 2022, non-OPEC supply is estimated to have increased by 1.9 mb/d y-o-y. Out of this, US liquids production increased by 1.2 mb/d, mainly on the ...
Saturday, 20 May 23
GLOBAL COAL TRADE HAS REALLY PICKED UP PACE IN RECENT MONTHS, NOW FULLY BACK TO PRE-COVID LEVELS - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace in recent months, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels. In Jan-Apr 2023, total global seaborne coa ...
Saturday, 20 May 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
India is one of the world's largest coal producers and one of the world's largest importers of coal. The country uses coal mainly for power ...
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Showing 101 to 105 news of total 6871 |
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- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The University of Queensland
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
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