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Thursday, 19 March 20
A CRUDE TSUNAMI: UP TO 3 MILLION BPD OF EXTRA OIL CAN HIT THE MARKET FROM APRIL, MORE COMING IN MAY - RYSTAD ENERGY
 The extra oil coming into the global market from April will be as much as 3 million barrels per day (bpd), Rystad Energy estimates. Two million bpd is what OPEC+ countries are realistically able to add next month based on their storage, spare capacity and ramp up capabilities. Another million bpd could come if a cease-fire is agreed upon in Libya and the country reaches pre-shut-in levels.
The additional product comes at a time when there is an existing global supply surplus. Before the OPEC+ meeting earlier this month, Rystad Energy had calculated that cuts of about 2 million bpd were needed to balance the market.
Since then, the world’s global demand has also seen a steep decline as flight cancellations, industrial shutdowns, quarantines and travel bans have further reduced the need for oil consumption by many more millions of bpd, widening the imbalance that already existed before the OPEC+ meeting.
The oil price is soon expected to slide even lower once the extra supply becomes available from April. But that’s not the end of it, as OPEC+ could add another 800,000 barrels of oil from May, ramping up production from its spare capacity even further.
Separately, Libya itself could make use of more of its total production capacity in a cease-fire scenario, which is as high as 2.8 million bpd. The country’s current output is less than 100,000 barrels per day due to the ongoing conflict.
“Any large political power sometimes needs to remind its adversaries and competitors of its might. We believe Saudi Arabia seeks to teach the market a lesson,” says Bjørnar Tonhaugen, Rystad Energy’s Head of Oil Markets.
There is a risk of production shut-ins as the world’s oil storage capabilities will be put to the test, with oil’s spot price subsequently collapsing, Tonhaugen adds, in which case countries with higher break-even prices will be the first to be affected.
Breaking down the additional oil production capability of the OPEC+ countries, Saudi Arabia will be the producer that plans to add the most, reaching total supply capabilities of 12.3 million bpd. We believe their upstream crude production capacity, without any additional drilling, is limited to around 11.5 million bpd in the short term.
For now, we expect the country’s April crude production to rise to between 10.8 million and 11 million bpd from 9.8 million bpd in February, and further to 11.2 million bpd in May. The remaining oil could come from its global storage facilities, in order to meet the 12.3 million bpd target.
We expect that Russia can increase production by at least 300,000 bpd in the next 90 days, according to guidance provided by Energy Minister Alexander Novak, but for now we include a more conservative increase of about 200,000 bpd in our estimates.
We expect UAE production to increase by about 200,000 bpd to 3.20 million bpd in April from February’s 3.04 million bpd, mostly from its flagship Murban onshore field. We acknowledge that the UAE could manage to increase production even higher if it utilizes its entire spare capacity.
A 110,000-bpd increase is also expected from Kuwait in April, raising its total production to 2.80 million bpd, with less upside risk than for UAE, Russia and Saudi Arabia.
The last major country with ample available spare capacity to potentially bring to the market in April is Iraq. Based on our analysis, Iraq will ramp-up production by 250,000 bpd to nearly 4.9 million bpd in April. If Iraq finds buyers for this additional crude, its total spare capacity of 480,000 bpd could be back online by June.
Source: Rystad Energy
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Monday, 08 January 24
KOSPO TO BUY 80000 MT OF INDONESIAN LOW CALORIFIC VALUE COAL FOR FEB 2024
Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO), is inviting bids for the supply of Indonesian Low Calorific Value Coal from qualified suppliers for Korean ...
Monday, 08 January 24
SEABORNE TRADE REACHES 12.4BN TONNES - CLARKSONS
China will establish a back-up coal production system by 2027 to stabilise prices and secure coal supply, the state planner said on Wednesday, even ...
Monday, 08 January 24
CAPESIZES START THE NEW YEAR ON POSITIVE NOTE - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Capesize
This week the capsize market has been marked by a mix of activities and challenges. Despite a slow start following the Christmas and N ...
Friday, 05 January 24
MORGAN STANLEY SEES LOWER OIL PRICES IN 2024 ON OVERSUPPLY CONCERNS - REUTERS
Morgan Stanley sees Brent crude prices anchored near $80 per barrel in the first half in 2024 before declining towards the end of the year as it ex ...
Friday, 05 January 24
INDIA'S COAL OUTPUT RISES NEARLY 11 PC IN DEC TO 92.87 MT - PTI
India’s coal production increased by 10.75 per cent to 92.87 million tonne in December 2023 as compared to the year-ago period, an official s ...
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- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Australian Coal Association
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Planning Commission, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
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