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Tuesday, 17 March 20
IT IS NOW UNQUESTIONABLE THAT 2020 WILL BE A MILESTONE YEAR FOR THE OIL MARKET, AS WELL AS THE WHOLE GLOBAL ECONOMY - ALLIED
AlliedIt is now unquestionable that 2020 will be a milestone year for the oil market, as well as the whole global economy. The impact from the COVID-19 outbreak will surely be considerable on oil trade, yet at this point it seems the tanker market has been taken by storm by the Saudi Arabia – Russia dispute on oil production output which has suddenly plunged oil prices to record lows while sending tanker freight rates to brand new highs, said Yiannis Vamvakas, Research Analyst of Allied Research. 
 
Yiannis Vamvakas further noted that, the severity of this impact, the time-duration of all these developments, as well as the reaction from key market participants is extremely difficult to predict right now, yet it is worth reviewing some crucial points.
 
On the production side, Yiannis Vamvakas noted that, last week’s news that Saudi Arabia and Russia could not come to a mutual agreement and would ramp up production was definitely unexpected. Given the weakened global demand levels that have been noted of late, all this seems counterintuitive for both. The fact that these two producer giants could not reach an agreement had as a result Brent oil to slide close to US$33 per barrel, while WTI reached a price of just above US$31 per barrel. 
 
Additionally, he said, it is worth mentioning that last week we witnessed the biggest daily oil price loss since the Gulf War of 1991, with a drop of around 25%. The disagreement between OPEC and Russia came after the latter’s refusal to support any further production cuts that OPEC proposed as a measure to counter the effects of the coronavirus outbreak. 
 
According to local sources, Saudi Arabia has already decided to increase its crude production above 10 million bpd next month from its current level of 9.7 million bpd. Russia, at the same time, has stated that it could lift production as well and that it could cope with low oil prices for up to ten years. Meanwhile the plunge in oil prices below US$40 has had a crucial impact on the US shale oil market. Several key producers in the US have already decreased their drilling plans, while the rig count is expected to fall by more than 45%. All this is a stark reminder of 2014, yet this time around demand figures are not as encouraging, a fact that has further darkened outlook.
 
On the demand side, Allied Research noted that, the IEA announced that oil demand is expected to decrease in 2020 for the first time in more than a decade. More specifically, forecasts are showing that oil demand will drop by approximately 90,000 bpd, falling to 99.9 million bpd in 2020. The key reason for these developments is the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak on several key industries (such as the travel industry). Estimates are showing that jet fuel demand is likely to slump by 11% on an annual basis, from last year’s 7.2 million bpd. Meanwhile, one of the most for now has been Asia which encompasses some of the most significant importers. Current demand for oil in China is estimated to have declined by 1.8m b/d. Yet, given the latest developments, the impact will not be limited there, with Europe and the US now following through. On the positive side, oil consumption is expected to rebound and increase by 2.1 million bpd in 2021.
 
However, with oil producers now in the midst of a “battle”, market fundamentals are in a constant state of shift. Undoubtedly, the crisis that we are facing will most likely be temporary, but to what extent the market will be “scarred” in the long term is hard to predict right now. It is likely that we will see a robust demand rebound once this have calmed down, but it is difficult to see yet to what extent. For the time being, it looks as though the tanker market is basking in the windfall benefits that have come along, as to how long these benefits will last remains to be seen, Yiannis Vamvakas concluded in its latest weekly analysis report.


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