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Tuesday, 17 March 20
IT IS NOW UNQUESTIONABLE THAT 2020 WILL BE A MILESTONE YEAR FOR THE OIL MARKET, AS WELL AS THE WHOLE GLOBAL ECONOMY - ALLIED
 It is now unquestionable that 2020 will be a milestone year for the oil market, as well as the whole global economy. The impact from the COVID-19 outbreak will surely be considerable on oil trade, yet at this point it seems the tanker market has been taken by storm by the Saudi Arabia – Russia dispute on oil production output which has suddenly plunged oil prices to record lows while sending tanker freight rates to brand new highs, said Yiannis Vamvakas, Research Analyst of Allied Research.
Yiannis Vamvakas further noted that, the severity of this impact, the time-duration of all these developments, as well as the reaction from key market participants is extremely difficult to predict right now, yet it is worth reviewing some crucial points.
On the production side, Yiannis Vamvakas noted that, last week’s news that Saudi Arabia and Russia could not come to a mutual agreement and would ramp up production was definitely unexpected. Given the weakened global demand levels that have been noted of late, all this seems counterintuitive for both. The fact that these two producer giants could not reach an agreement had as a result Brent oil to slide close to US$33 per barrel, while WTI reached a price of just above US$31 per barrel.
Additionally, he said, it is worth mentioning that last week we witnessed the biggest daily oil price loss since the Gulf War of 1991, with a drop of around 25%. The disagreement between OPEC and Russia came after the latter’s refusal to support any further production cuts that OPEC proposed as a measure to counter the effects of the coronavirus outbreak.
According to local sources, Saudi Arabia has already decided to increase its crude production above 10 million bpd next month from its current level of 9.7 million bpd. Russia, at the same time, has stated that it could lift production as well and that it could cope with low oil prices for up to ten years. Meanwhile the plunge in oil prices below US$40 has had a crucial impact on the US shale oil market. Several key producers in the US have already decreased their drilling plans, while the rig count is expected to fall by more than 45%. All this is a stark reminder of 2014, yet this time around demand figures are not as encouraging, a fact that has further darkened outlook.
On the demand side, Allied Research noted that, the IEA announced that oil demand is expected to decrease in 2020 for the first time in more than a decade. More specifically, forecasts are showing that oil demand will drop by approximately 90,000 bpd, falling to 99.9 million bpd in 2020. The key reason for these developments is the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak on several key industries (such as the travel industry). Estimates are showing that jet fuel demand is likely to slump by 11% on an annual basis, from last year’s 7.2 million bpd. Meanwhile, one of the most for now has been Asia which encompasses some of the most significant importers. Current demand for oil in China is estimated to have declined by 1.8m b/d. Yet, given the latest developments, the impact will not be limited there, with Europe and the US now following through. On the positive side, oil consumption is expected to rebound and increase by 2.1 million bpd in 2021.
However, with oil producers now in the midst of a “battle”, market fundamentals are in a constant state of shift. Undoubtedly, the crisis that we are facing will most likely be temporary, but to what extent the market will be “scarred” in the long term is hard to predict right now. It is likely that we will see a robust demand rebound once this have calmed down, but it is difficult to see yet to what extent. For the time being, it looks as though the tanker market is basking in the windfall benefits that have come along, as to how long these benefits will last remains to be seen, Yiannis Vamvakas concluded in its latest weekly analysis report.
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Wednesday, 18 March 20
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Despite we all knew about the Covid-19 weeks ago, few could realize the size of the thread until the last few days. The examples of China and Italy ...
Tuesday, 17 March 20
PRELIMINARY FIELD EXPERIENCES ON THE EFFECTS OF LSFO AND VLSFO ON CYLINDER CONDITION - HANS JENSEN LUBRICATORS
It is now more than two months since the 0.5% sulphur cap entered into force, which have affected the operation of more than 70,000 vessels. As ant ...
Monday, 16 March 20
ULTRAMAX: S8 INDONESIA-INDIA AND S10 INDONESIA-CHINA ROUTES BOTH POSTED GAINS OF $1,412, AND $1,289 ON THE WEEK, TO CLOSE AT $5,575, AND $6,089 RESPECTIVELY - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market came to work on Monday, with little expectation, or confidence, that the days ahead were going to bring anything o ...
Sunday, 15 March 20
CAPTIVE COAL OUTPUT RISES 19% IN APRIL-FEBRUARY - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Coal production from captive mines in the first eleven months of the ongoing fiscal have increased by 18.8% year-on-year (y-o-y) to 51.7 million to ...
Friday, 13 March 20
PANAMAX: SLIGHTLY STRONGER NUMBERS IN BOTH BASINS THIS WEEK - FEARNLEYS
Cape
Still very sad times for the big ships, and merit in further trading at present levels is highly debatable for most tonnage. Spot fixtures ...
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- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Planning Commission, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
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