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Tuesday, 17 March 20
IT IS NOW UNQUESTIONABLE THAT 2020 WILL BE A MILESTONE YEAR FOR THE OIL MARKET, AS WELL AS THE WHOLE GLOBAL ECONOMY - ALLIED
 It is now unquestionable that 2020 will be a milestone year for the oil market, as well as the whole global economy. The impact from the COVID-19 outbreak will surely be considerable on oil trade, yet at this point it seems the tanker market has been taken by storm by the Saudi Arabia – Russia dispute on oil production output which has suddenly plunged oil prices to record lows while sending tanker freight rates to brand new highs, said Yiannis Vamvakas, Research Analyst of Allied Research.
Yiannis Vamvakas further noted that, the severity of this impact, the time-duration of all these developments, as well as the reaction from key market participants is extremely difficult to predict right now, yet it is worth reviewing some crucial points.
On the production side, Yiannis Vamvakas noted that, last week’s news that Saudi Arabia and Russia could not come to a mutual agreement and would ramp up production was definitely unexpected. Given the weakened global demand levels that have been noted of late, all this seems counterintuitive for both. The fact that these two producer giants could not reach an agreement had as a result Brent oil to slide close to US$33 per barrel, while WTI reached a price of just above US$31 per barrel.
Additionally, he said, it is worth mentioning that last week we witnessed the biggest daily oil price loss since the Gulf War of 1991, with a drop of around 25%. The disagreement between OPEC and Russia came after the latter’s refusal to support any further production cuts that OPEC proposed as a measure to counter the effects of the coronavirus outbreak.
According to local sources, Saudi Arabia has already decided to increase its crude production above 10 million bpd next month from its current level of 9.7 million bpd. Russia, at the same time, has stated that it could lift production as well and that it could cope with low oil prices for up to ten years. Meanwhile the plunge in oil prices below US$40 has had a crucial impact on the US shale oil market. Several key producers in the US have already decreased their drilling plans, while the rig count is expected to fall by more than 45%. All this is a stark reminder of 2014, yet this time around demand figures are not as encouraging, a fact that has further darkened outlook.
On the demand side, Allied Research noted that, the IEA announced that oil demand is expected to decrease in 2020 for the first time in more than a decade. More specifically, forecasts are showing that oil demand will drop by approximately 90,000 bpd, falling to 99.9 million bpd in 2020. The key reason for these developments is the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak on several key industries (such as the travel industry). Estimates are showing that jet fuel demand is likely to slump by 11% on an annual basis, from last year’s 7.2 million bpd. Meanwhile, one of the most for now has been Asia which encompasses some of the most significant importers. Current demand for oil in China is estimated to have declined by 1.8m b/d. Yet, given the latest developments, the impact will not be limited there, with Europe and the US now following through. On the positive side, oil consumption is expected to rebound and increase by 2.1 million bpd in 2021.
However, with oil producers now in the midst of a “battle”, market fundamentals are in a constant state of shift. Undoubtedly, the crisis that we are facing will most likely be temporary, but to what extent the market will be “scarred” in the long term is hard to predict right now. It is likely that we will see a robust demand rebound once this have calmed down, but it is difficult to see yet to what extent. For the time being, it looks as though the tanker market is basking in the windfall benefits that have come along, as to how long these benefits will last remains to be seen, Yiannis Vamvakas concluded in its latest weekly analysis report.
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Wednesday, 18 March 20
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Despite we all knew about the Covid-19 weeks ago, few could realize the size of the thread until the last few days. The examples of China and Italy ...
Tuesday, 17 March 20
PRELIMINARY FIELD EXPERIENCES ON THE EFFECTS OF LSFO AND VLSFO ON CYLINDER CONDITION - HANS JENSEN LUBRICATORS
It is now more than two months since the 0.5% sulphur cap entered into force, which have affected the operation of more than 70,000 vessels. As ant ...
Monday, 16 March 20
ULTRAMAX: S8 INDONESIA-INDIA AND S10 INDONESIA-CHINA ROUTES BOTH POSTED GAINS OF $1,412, AND $1,289 ON THE WEEK, TO CLOSE AT $5,575, AND $6,089 RESPECTIVELY - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market came to work on Monday, with little expectation, or confidence, that the days ahead were going to bring anything o ...
Sunday, 15 March 20
CAPTIVE COAL OUTPUT RISES 19% IN APRIL-FEBRUARY - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Coal production from captive mines in the first eleven months of the ongoing fiscal have increased by 18.8% year-on-year (y-o-y) to 51.7 million to ...
Friday, 13 March 20
PANAMAX: SLIGHTLY STRONGER NUMBERS IN BOTH BASINS THIS WEEK - FEARNLEYS
Cape
Still very sad times for the big ships, and merit in further trading at present levels is highly debatable for most tonnage. Spot fixtures ...
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- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Planning Commission, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
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