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Tuesday, 17 March 20
IT IS NOW UNQUESTIONABLE THAT 2020 WILL BE A MILESTONE YEAR FOR THE OIL MARKET, AS WELL AS THE WHOLE GLOBAL ECONOMY - ALLIED
 It is now unquestionable that 2020 will be a milestone year for the oil market, as well as the whole global economy. The impact from the COVID-19 outbreak will surely be considerable on oil trade, yet at this point it seems the tanker market has been taken by storm by the Saudi Arabia – Russia dispute on oil production output which has suddenly plunged oil prices to record lows while sending tanker freight rates to brand new highs, said Yiannis Vamvakas, Research Analyst of Allied Research.
Yiannis Vamvakas further noted that, the severity of this impact, the time-duration of all these developments, as well as the reaction from key market participants is extremely difficult to predict right now, yet it is worth reviewing some crucial points.
On the production side, Yiannis Vamvakas noted that, last week’s news that Saudi Arabia and Russia could not come to a mutual agreement and would ramp up production was definitely unexpected. Given the weakened global demand levels that have been noted of late, all this seems counterintuitive for both. The fact that these two producer giants could not reach an agreement had as a result Brent oil to slide close to US$33 per barrel, while WTI reached a price of just above US$31 per barrel.
Additionally, he said, it is worth mentioning that last week we witnessed the biggest daily oil price loss since the Gulf War of 1991, with a drop of around 25%. The disagreement between OPEC and Russia came after the latter’s refusal to support any further production cuts that OPEC proposed as a measure to counter the effects of the coronavirus outbreak.
According to local sources, Saudi Arabia has already decided to increase its crude production above 10 million bpd next month from its current level of 9.7 million bpd. Russia, at the same time, has stated that it could lift production as well and that it could cope with low oil prices for up to ten years. Meanwhile the plunge in oil prices below US$40 has had a crucial impact on the US shale oil market. Several key producers in the US have already decreased their drilling plans, while the rig count is expected to fall by more than 45%. All this is a stark reminder of 2014, yet this time around demand figures are not as encouraging, a fact that has further darkened outlook.
On the demand side, Allied Research noted that, the IEA announced that oil demand is expected to decrease in 2020 for the first time in more than a decade. More specifically, forecasts are showing that oil demand will drop by approximately 90,000 bpd, falling to 99.9 million bpd in 2020. The key reason for these developments is the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak on several key industries (such as the travel industry). Estimates are showing that jet fuel demand is likely to slump by 11% on an annual basis, from last year’s 7.2 million bpd. Meanwhile, one of the most for now has been Asia which encompasses some of the most significant importers. Current demand for oil in China is estimated to have declined by 1.8m b/d. Yet, given the latest developments, the impact will not be limited there, with Europe and the US now following through. On the positive side, oil consumption is expected to rebound and increase by 2.1 million bpd in 2021.
However, with oil producers now in the midst of a “battle”, market fundamentals are in a constant state of shift. Undoubtedly, the crisis that we are facing will most likely be temporary, but to what extent the market will be “scarred” in the long term is hard to predict right now. It is likely that we will see a robust demand rebound once this have calmed down, but it is difficult to see yet to what extent. For the time being, it looks as though the tanker market is basking in the windfall benefits that have come along, as to how long these benefits will last remains to be seen, Yiannis Vamvakas concluded in its latest weekly analysis report.
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Wednesday, 18 March 20
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Despite we all knew about the Covid-19 weeks ago, few could realize the size of the thread until the last few days. The examples of China and Italy ...
Tuesday, 17 March 20
PRELIMINARY FIELD EXPERIENCES ON THE EFFECTS OF LSFO AND VLSFO ON CYLINDER CONDITION - HANS JENSEN LUBRICATORS
It is now more than two months since the 0.5% sulphur cap entered into force, which have affected the operation of more than 70,000 vessels. As ant ...
Monday, 16 March 20
ULTRAMAX: S8 INDONESIA-INDIA AND S10 INDONESIA-CHINA ROUTES BOTH POSTED GAINS OF $1,412, AND $1,289 ON THE WEEK, TO CLOSE AT $5,575, AND $6,089 RESPECTIVELY - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market came to work on Monday, with little expectation, or confidence, that the days ahead were going to bring anything o ...
Sunday, 15 March 20
CAPTIVE COAL OUTPUT RISES 19% IN APRIL-FEBRUARY - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Coal production from captive mines in the first eleven months of the ongoing fiscal have increased by 18.8% year-on-year (y-o-y) to 51.7 million to ...
Friday, 13 March 20
PANAMAX: SLIGHTLY STRONGER NUMBERS IN BOTH BASINS THIS WEEK - FEARNLEYS
Cape
Still very sad times for the big ships, and merit in further trading at present levels is highly debatable for most tonnage. Spot fixtures ...
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- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Australian Coal Association
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
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