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Tuesday, 10 March 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS
 It might be already overstated, but it seems to be important to point out once again how peculiar the current circumstances are.
Before the start of the year, it was one of the favorite topics amongst participants in the shipping industry how challenging 2020 would be. However, no one could have guessed the level of this challenge. With some certainty, we can argue that Covid-19 spread will be a strong test, from a social, as well as an economical perspective. Instead of making further assumptions as to how the virus outbreak may or may not affect different market aspects, we could take things from a different angle and view hoping to better understand how different mechanisms are currently reacting to this unique situation, Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping Research said in his latest weekly report.
Thomas Chasapis further noted that, the global economic slowdown seems to be the inevitable outcome, emphatically evident from the recent trends being portrayed in global markets. Beyond this, the real question is as to how big this step back will eventually be. Week over week all forecasts regarding economic development and macroeconomic trends seem very prone to downward revisions, given that the virus spread seems to be more dynamic and unpredictable as time goes by. A glimpse of optimism was noted during the past weeks, given the decreasing rate of new cases testing positive to the COVID-19 virus in China. However, witnessing the hefty growth in cases reported in Italy (and across Europe), a strong wave of doubt and uncertainty has firmly hit the general economic environment. The discussions surrounding a wider quantitative easing will certainly help stabilize financial markets, a tool that has helped in many cases of severe downward pressure in the past. Regardless though of the effort made by central institutions and given the unpredictable time duration of this tail risk, it will eventually be a unique test as to the credit risks present in the financial industry. Furthermore, witnessing the steep collapse of more than 30% in oil price, the scene has become even more volatile. Theoretically, "cheap" oil would be a boost for growth and consumer spending power. However, when overall demand is, to say the least, fragile, in what way this "abundant" supply could affect the real economy seems rather questionable.
How does all the above translate over to the shipping industry? Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping Research says, certainly, the anticipation of a major step back in economic growth (which means respectively a significant slowdown in seaborne trade), can't be under any case be considered a "good" sign. A somehow opposing argument to this is the fact that dry FFA long-term contracts have increased since the beginning of the year. Maybe, this is just an optimistic opinion shared by a small minority, or maybe the fundamentals are strong, and this periodical affect is unrelated to the macro economical prospect of the dry bulk sector.
In any case, given the mixed macroeconomic environment, it would be wise to focus for the time being on the near-term picture noted in the dry bulk sector. The past couple of weeks the market seems to be in a state of transition, seemingly in a process of recovering from a freight market bottom (especially for the medium size segments – Panamaxes and Supramaxes). Time is the key variable here. As the virus spread doesn't seem to be yet under check, sentiment will turn ever more negative, while extra pressure will be applied to cash reserves and cash flows as well as to daily operating activities. On the other hand, the window of a steeper upward potential is growing, given the higher slippage rate of cargo volumes that potentially could take shape. This may well mean that we could see exaggerated returns take place from the early onset of the summer period.
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Friday, 06 September 24
REBOUND IN OIL DEMAND COULD LIFT MARKET IN LATTER HALF OF 2024 - BIMCO
Supply/demand
Based on a strong second half demand, the supply/balance is forecast to strengthen in 2024 but weaken slightly in 2025 as n ...
Friday, 06 September 24
GLOBAL SEABORNE LNG TRADE HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE LAST YEAR - BANCHERO COSTA
Global seaborne LNG trade has continued to increase last year, helped also by the events in Ukraine which forced Europe to diversify away from Russ ...
Wednesday, 28 August 24
SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS INTO INDIA INCREASED BY +9.9% Y-O-Y TO 146.6 MLN T - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace over the past year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels said Banchero Costa Research in its lates ...
Tuesday, 06 August 24
EXERCISE CAUTION WITH AMMONIA SWITCH - BALTIC EXCHANGE
A new study from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) has thrown a spanner into the plan to transition ships from diesel fuel to ammonia ...
Friday, 02 August 24
ENERGY MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: COAL AND NATURAL GAS PRICES REACH RECORD HIGHS - WORLD BANK
The recent surge in natural gas and coal prices has been so swift that the main benchmarks were roughly three times higher in 2022Q2 compared to a ...
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- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
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- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
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- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
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- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
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- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
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- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Planning Commission, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- White Energy Company Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Australian Coal Association
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
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