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Monday, 09 March 20
OPEC+ 'NO DEAL' A BLOW TO THE MARKET - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Speaking after today’s OPEC+ meeting broke up, Ann-Louise Hittle, vice president, Macro Oils, at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Today’s outcome is a psychological blow for the market, as the steep plunge in oil prices shows.
“And the market is now facing the spectre of unrestrained production once the current OPEC+ agreement expires in March.
“However, we do not think Saudi Arabia will push hard to lift their output in the northern hemisphere spring.
“Given weak demand and the likelihood this weakness will persist into the second quarter, it will be hard for any producer to increase their output sharply once the original production deal expires at the end of this month.”
Demand risks
She added: “One factor to bear in mind is that the plunge in demand we saw in Q1 was created by circumstances in China. The country’s coronavirus (Covid-19) containment measures have been far more stringent than those imposed anywhere else, and are not likely to be copied elsewhere.
“The lack of a production deal carries risk. This would become apparent if global economic growth weakens and oil demand continues to contract more sharply than expected thanks to the double whammy of coronavirus containment measures and falling GDP.”
Hittle said: “Our current projection sees global liquids demand fall by 2.7 million b/d year-on-year in the first quarter of 2020, the first year-on-year decline on a quarterly basis since Q2 2009.
“It is the most severe decline since Q4 2008, the height of the 2008-2009 global economic crisis, which saw demand tumble by 2.8 million b/d year-on-year.”
Hittle said: “If the impact the coronavirus has had on global oil demand is sustained, then by the second half of the year we’d expect to see weaker GDP. This will have a far greater impact on oil demand than just temporary reductions in jet fuel and gasoline demand.
“A longer, sustained outbreak of coronavirus threatens to hit oil demand with a double whammy: already weak demand will soften further because of containment measures, and this will weaken GDP.”
What next?
What does this mean for OPEC and OPEC+? It would mean that the group would likely need to monitor economic indicators closely. It may even mean that they could be forced to call an emergency meeting during the second quarter.
She added: “A sustained bout of low oil prices will further reduce cash flow and investment into the US oil patch, causing further hits to Lower 48 production growth later this year. It takes at least six to nine months for reductions in spend to lead to lower oil production in the US Lower 48.
“In that time, their access to capital may be limited and their free cash flow badly hit.
“The only silver lining in a very dark cloud is for refining – the sector will be hit hard by weak demand, but it is at least saved from tightening crude differentials associated with a major cut in OPEC supplies.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Tuesday, 29 November 22
SEABORNE COAL FLOWS IN 2022 - SIGNAL
This year is crucial for the energy mix in European countries, as the EU has imposed new sanctions on Russia. It is important to emphasize that the ...
Friday, 25 November 22
APAC THERMAL COAL PRICES CORRECT FROM RECORD HIGH - FITCH RATINGS
Prices of Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg coal have corrected following falling European gas and coal prices, and more supply from Australia could help miti ...
Thursday, 24 November 22
VIETNAM BOOSTS COAL USE PLAN FOR 2030 AS G7 CLIMATE OFFER STALLS - REUTERS
Vietnam has increased its coal power target for 2030 under a revised draft energy plan, government documents seen by Reuters show, while renewables ...
Tuesday, 22 November 22
THE GENCON 2022 CHARTERPARTY - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
BIMCO has published a revamped version of the popular GENCON charterparty. Our author, Helena Biggs, was a member of the ...
Tuesday, 22 November 22
INDIA POWER BINGES ON COAL, OUTPACES ASIA - REUTERS
India’s coal-fired power output has increased much faster than any other country in the Asia Pacific since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine ...
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- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Planning Commission, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- White Energy Company Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
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