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Monday, 09 March 20
OPEC+ 'NO DEAL' A BLOW TO THE MARKET - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Speaking after today’s OPEC+ meeting broke up, Ann-Louise Hittle, vice president, Macro Oils, at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Today’s outcome is a psychological blow for the market, as the steep plunge in oil prices shows.
“And the market is now facing the spectre of unrestrained production once the current OPEC+ agreement expires in March.
“However, we do not think Saudi Arabia will push hard to lift their output in the northern hemisphere spring.
“Given weak demand and the likelihood this weakness will persist into the second quarter, it will be hard for any producer to increase their output sharply once the original production deal expires at the end of this month.”
Demand risks
She added: “One factor to bear in mind is that the plunge in demand we saw in Q1 was created by circumstances in China. The country’s coronavirus (Covid-19) containment measures have been far more stringent than those imposed anywhere else, and are not likely to be copied elsewhere.
“The lack of a production deal carries risk. This would become apparent if global economic growth weakens and oil demand continues to contract more sharply than expected thanks to the double whammy of coronavirus containment measures and falling GDP.”
Hittle said: “Our current projection sees global liquids demand fall by 2.7 million b/d year-on-year in the first quarter of 2020, the first year-on-year decline on a quarterly basis since Q2 2009.
“It is the most severe decline since Q4 2008, the height of the 2008-2009 global economic crisis, which saw demand tumble by 2.8 million b/d year-on-year.”
Hittle said: “If the impact the coronavirus has had on global oil demand is sustained, then by the second half of the year we’d expect to see weaker GDP. This will have a far greater impact on oil demand than just temporary reductions in jet fuel and gasoline demand.
“A longer, sustained outbreak of coronavirus threatens to hit oil demand with a double whammy: already weak demand will soften further because of containment measures, and this will weaken GDP.”
What next?
What does this mean for OPEC and OPEC+? It would mean that the group would likely need to monitor economic indicators closely. It may even mean that they could be forced to call an emergency meeting during the second quarter.
She added: “A sustained bout of low oil prices will further reduce cash flow and investment into the US oil patch, causing further hits to Lower 48 production growth later this year. It takes at least six to nine months for reductions in spend to lead to lower oil production in the US Lower 48.
“In that time, their access to capital may be limited and their free cash flow badly hit.
“The only silver lining in a very dark cloud is for refining – the sector will be hit hard by weak demand, but it is at least saved from tightening crude differentials associated with a major cut in OPEC supplies.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Wednesday, 11 March 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.07 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 133.16 points Monday, up 0.07 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
Wednesday, 11 March 20
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
On the 4th of September the Baltic Dry Index marked its highest level for 2019, reaching 2,518 points, while the rest of the dry indices also recor ...
Tuesday, 10 March 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS
It might be already overstated, but it seems to be important to point out once again how peculiar the current circumstances are.
Before the st ...
Tuesday, 10 March 20
EIA FORECASTS U.S ELECTRIC POWER SECTOR DEMAND FOR COAL WILL FALL BY 81 MMST (15%) IN 2020
EIA forecasts that U.S. coal production will total 595 million short tons (MMst) in 2020, down 95 MMst (14%) from 2019. According to EIA's Shor ...
Tuesday, 10 March 20
CORONAVIRUS: DEMAND DOWNGRADES FOR BULK COMMODITIES - WOOD MACKENZIE
The coronavirus outbreak is a rapidly evolving news story – and a real wildcard for bulks demand. Our global experts are monitoring the impac ...
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- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The University of Queensland
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
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