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Monday, 09 March 20
OPEC+ 'NO DEAL' A BLOW TO THE MARKET - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Speaking after today’s OPEC+ meeting broke up, Ann-Louise Hittle, vice president, Macro Oils, at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Today’s outcome is a psychological blow for the market, as the steep plunge in oil prices shows.
“And the market is now facing the spectre of unrestrained production once the current OPEC+ agreement expires in March.
“However, we do not think Saudi Arabia will push hard to lift their output in the northern hemisphere spring.
“Given weak demand and the likelihood this weakness will persist into the second quarter, it will be hard for any producer to increase their output sharply once the original production deal expires at the end of this month.”
Demand risks
She added: “One factor to bear in mind is that the plunge in demand we saw in Q1 was created by circumstances in China. The country’s coronavirus (Covid-19) containment measures have been far more stringent than those imposed anywhere else, and are not likely to be copied elsewhere.
“The lack of a production deal carries risk. This would become apparent if global economic growth weakens and oil demand continues to contract more sharply than expected thanks to the double whammy of coronavirus containment measures and falling GDP.”
Hittle said: “Our current projection sees global liquids demand fall by 2.7 million b/d year-on-year in the first quarter of 2020, the first year-on-year decline on a quarterly basis since Q2 2009.
“It is the most severe decline since Q4 2008, the height of the 2008-2009 global economic crisis, which saw demand tumble by 2.8 million b/d year-on-year.”
Hittle said: “If the impact the coronavirus has had on global oil demand is sustained, then by the second half of the year we’d expect to see weaker GDP. This will have a far greater impact on oil demand than just temporary reductions in jet fuel and gasoline demand.
“A longer, sustained outbreak of coronavirus threatens to hit oil demand with a double whammy: already weak demand will soften further because of containment measures, and this will weaken GDP.”
What next?
What does this mean for OPEC and OPEC+? It would mean that the group would likely need to monitor economic indicators closely. It may even mean that they could be forced to call an emergency meeting during the second quarter.
She added: “A sustained bout of low oil prices will further reduce cash flow and investment into the US oil patch, causing further hits to Lower 48 production growth later this year. It takes at least six to nine months for reductions in spend to lead to lower oil production in the US Lower 48.
“In that time, their access to capital may be limited and their free cash flow badly hit.
“The only silver lining in a very dark cloud is for refining – the sector will be hit hard by weak demand, but it is at least saved from tightening crude differentials associated with a major cut in OPEC supplies.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Friday, 06 September 24
REBOUND IN OIL DEMAND COULD LIFT MARKET IN LATTER HALF OF 2024 - BIMCO
Supply/demand
Based on a strong second half demand, the supply/balance is forecast to strengthen in 2024 but weaken slightly in 2025 as n ...
Friday, 06 September 24
GLOBAL SEABORNE LNG TRADE HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE LAST YEAR - BANCHERO COSTA
Global seaborne LNG trade has continued to increase last year, helped also by the events in Ukraine which forced Europe to diversify away from Russ ...
Wednesday, 28 August 24
SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS INTO INDIA INCREASED BY +9.9% Y-O-Y TO 146.6 MLN T - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace over the past year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels said Banchero Costa Research in its lates ...
Tuesday, 06 August 24
EXERCISE CAUTION WITH AMMONIA SWITCH - BALTIC EXCHANGE
A new study from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) has thrown a spanner into the plan to transition ships from diesel fuel to ammonia ...
Friday, 02 August 24
ENERGY MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: COAL AND NATURAL GAS PRICES REACH RECORD HIGHS - WORLD BANK
The recent surge in natural gas and coal prices has been so swift that the main benchmarks were roughly three times higher in 2022Q2 compared to a ...
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- Parliament of New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
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- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
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- Central Electricity Authority - India
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- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
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- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Planning Commission, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
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