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Monday, 09 March 20
OPEC+ 'NO DEAL' A BLOW TO THE MARKET - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Speaking after today’s OPEC+ meeting broke up, Ann-Louise Hittle, vice president, Macro Oils, at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Today’s outcome is a psychological blow for the market, as the steep plunge in oil prices shows.
“And the market is now facing the spectre of unrestrained production once the current OPEC+ agreement expires in March.
“However, we do not think Saudi Arabia will push hard to lift their output in the northern hemisphere spring.
“Given weak demand and the likelihood this weakness will persist into the second quarter, it will be hard for any producer to increase their output sharply once the original production deal expires at the end of this month.”
Demand risks
She added: “One factor to bear in mind is that the plunge in demand we saw in Q1 was created by circumstances in China. The country’s coronavirus (Covid-19) containment measures have been far more stringent than those imposed anywhere else, and are not likely to be copied elsewhere.
“The lack of a production deal carries risk. This would become apparent if global economic growth weakens and oil demand continues to contract more sharply than expected thanks to the double whammy of coronavirus containment measures and falling GDP.”
Hittle said: “Our current projection sees global liquids demand fall by 2.7 million b/d year-on-year in the first quarter of 2020, the first year-on-year decline on a quarterly basis since Q2 2009.
“It is the most severe decline since Q4 2008, the height of the 2008-2009 global economic crisis, which saw demand tumble by 2.8 million b/d year-on-year.”
Hittle said: “If the impact the coronavirus has had on global oil demand is sustained, then by the second half of the year we’d expect to see weaker GDP. This will have a far greater impact on oil demand than just temporary reductions in jet fuel and gasoline demand.
“A longer, sustained outbreak of coronavirus threatens to hit oil demand with a double whammy: already weak demand will soften further because of containment measures, and this will weaken GDP.”
What next?
What does this mean for OPEC and OPEC+? It would mean that the group would likely need to monitor economic indicators closely. It may even mean that they could be forced to call an emergency meeting during the second quarter.
She added: “A sustained bout of low oil prices will further reduce cash flow and investment into the US oil patch, causing further hits to Lower 48 production growth later this year. It takes at least six to nine months for reductions in spend to lead to lower oil production in the US Lower 48.
“In that time, their access to capital may be limited and their free cash flow badly hit.
“The only silver lining in a very dark cloud is for refining – the sector will be hit hard by weak demand, but it is at least saved from tightening crude differentials associated with a major cut in OPEC supplies.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Friday, 06 September 24
REBOUND IN OIL DEMAND COULD LIFT MARKET IN LATTER HALF OF 2024 - BIMCO
Supply/demand
Based on a strong second half demand, the supply/balance is forecast to strengthen in 2024 but weaken slightly in 2025 as n ...
Friday, 06 September 24
GLOBAL SEABORNE LNG TRADE HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE LAST YEAR - BANCHERO COSTA
Global seaborne LNG trade has continued to increase last year, helped also by the events in Ukraine which forced Europe to diversify away from Russ ...
Wednesday, 28 August 24
SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS INTO INDIA INCREASED BY +9.9% Y-O-Y TO 146.6 MLN T - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace over the past year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels said Banchero Costa Research in its lates ...
Tuesday, 06 August 24
EXERCISE CAUTION WITH AMMONIA SWITCH - BALTIC EXCHANGE
A new study from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) has thrown a spanner into the plan to transition ships from diesel fuel to ammonia ...
Friday, 02 August 24
ENERGY MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: COAL AND NATURAL GAS PRICES REACH RECORD HIGHS - WORLD BANK
The recent surge in natural gas and coal prices has been so swift that the main benchmarks were roughly three times higher in 2022Q2 compared to a ...
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- Minerals Council of Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Australian Coal Association
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
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