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Friday, 14 February 20
WHY THE WORLD ECONOMY WILL BE FACING CHINA'S CORONAVIRUS FOR A LONG TIME - CNBC
 Everywhere we look we see the headlines and commentators talking about the coronavirus and its impact on tourism, trade and investment between China and the West — and China and the U.S., in particular. However, there are far-reaching effects that have not been contemplated fully beyond the intuitive assessment.
Things move slowly. China has long been known as a country with patience, which in business language translates to longer lead times in the transactional arena, sometimes exhaustive negotiations, and relationships are built over time. Many of these relationships are created in the environment of trade shows, conferences, information exchange platforms, and trade delegations. China has finely tuned this method of cross-border introductions and it is a continuous process.
Combined with this is the growth of the multinational business presence in China. Major retailers, manufacturers, pharmaceuticals, biotech, automotive and other sectors are firmly planted in China with technology and personnel. Now, with the essentially closed border with China, the rest of the world waits and watches. To the business community, this is unsettling, to say the least, because there is no accurate predictor of when a vaccine may be found or when the world threat eradicated. Even when those pronouncements are ultimately made by Beijing there is the inherent distrust of information disseminated by the Chinese government.
So what does all of this mean for cross-border business in the short and long term?
An aerial view reveals that the movement of people and technology and deal closure have simply come to a halt. When the Chinese government, or other governments, or the WHO pronounce that it is safe to travel to China again, that will not be the end of it. There has been a worldwide reaction to the scare. The tradeshow and related cancellations have occurred not only in China but throughout Asia and into Europe. Therefore, a wide swath of activities are upended across all business sectors.
The rate of new cases slowed on Wednesday. As of this writing, there have been more than 45,000 cases of Covid-19 and over 1,100 deaths. Businesses from cruise ships to luxury brands and air travel, as well as global markets like oil, have all been hit. There can be no question that it will be a slow and painful process moving back to normalcy. Professional offices remain closed indefinitely, and 90% of businesses are closed or at dramatically reduced hours. Theaters, factories and others where people congregate are closed.
We are all familiar with the recent comparisons of coronavirus with SARS, but there is no real comparison. SARS was perceived as essentially a Hong Kong-centric event and everyone wondered if that would be the death of the HK economy, coming a few years after the handover. Moreover, social media and its impact on global interaction were just launching, and China’s interaction with the world economy was in its infancy.
Transparency will be the key to short term confidence which will lead to a long-term recovery. This is despite short-term pain and embarrassment. All governments can learn a lesson from this, but Beijing has yet to learn it. It may very well be that Wuhan, as ground zero for the Coronavirus, never recovers. The headlines today paint Wuhan as a pariah city, in a wartime battle and in lockdown. The Chinese Chernobyl. These characterizations will not be easily shed. Wuhan, as the capital of Hubei province, has positioned itself as a foreign investment hub and has developed trade, manufacturing and export and development zones to highlight its growth and position within China. Companies will have to assess whether or not their investments should remain in Wuhan or be moved.
Considering China’s impact on the world economy, China will not be off limits to future investment forever. Instead, there will be wariness and unbridled caution for the foreseeable future. Businesses will seek alternatives to avoid commercial and liability issues.
In the best case, returning to normal is not a reasonable expectation in the short term. In the long term, China must take all steps necessary to demonstrate its commitment to transparency regarding all factors relating to the virus. In today’s economy, there are many alternatives for trade and investment and China must recognize that its global trade partners need regular and repeated reassurances. Additionally, China will need to inject substantial financial incentives into the economy to balance against commercial and optical risks.
In the best of circumstances, this process will take six to nine months to see the way forward to a stable and commercially feasible reintroduction of business, confidence and renewed investment. This will require unrelenting adjustments as events require. There is no single action or vaccine that will erase the impact of the coronavirus. A group of actions are needed to restore the zeal and excitement for consumer, business, investment and tourism.
Anything less will create a lingering atmosphere of caution and distrust.
Source: CNBC
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Thursday, 25 January 24
THE RED SEA ESCALATION IMPLICATIONS ON GLOBAL SEABORNE TRADE - MARIA BERTZELETOU
In recent days, discussions have intensified about the potential impact on the seaborne trade and ton-miles due to the evolving dynamics of market ...
Thursday, 25 January 24
RED SEA SHIPPING DISRUPTIONS KEEP GEOPOLITICAL PREMIUM FOR COMMODITIES - FITCH RATINGS
Shipping disruptions and re-routing away from the Red Sea will maintain the geopolitical premium in the main commodity markets, including for oil a ...
Friday, 19 January 24
INDONESIA TARGETS 710 MLN METRIC TONS COAL OUTPUT IN 2024 AFTER RECORD 2023 - REUTERS
Indonesia, a major thermal coal exporter, aims to produce 710 million metric tons of coal in 2024, its mining minister said on Monday, after postin ...
Friday, 19 January 24
DRUMMOND COLOMBIA COAL OUTPUT ROSE 7.1% IN 2023 - REUTERS
Coal production from miner Drummond’s Colombia operations rose 7.1% in 2023 to 29.5 million metric tons, while exports declined by 2.6% to 27 ...
Friday, 19 January 24
CHINA'S 2023 COAL OUTPUT HITS RECORD HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal output reached a record high in 2023, data from the statistics bureau showed on Wednesday, amid an ongoing focus on energy secur ...
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- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PTC India Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The University of Queensland
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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