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Friday, 14 February 20
WHY THE WORLD ECONOMY WILL BE FACING CHINA'S CORONAVIRUS FOR A LONG TIME - CNBC
 Everywhere we look we see the headlines and commentators talking about the coronavirus and its impact on tourism, trade and investment between China and the West — and China and the U.S., in particular. However, there are far-reaching effects that have not been contemplated fully beyond the intuitive assessment.
Things move slowly. China has long been known as a country with patience, which in business language translates to longer lead times in the transactional arena, sometimes exhaustive negotiations, and relationships are built over time. Many of these relationships are created in the environment of trade shows, conferences, information exchange platforms, and trade delegations. China has finely tuned this method of cross-border introductions and it is a continuous process.
Combined with this is the growth of the multinational business presence in China. Major retailers, manufacturers, pharmaceuticals, biotech, automotive and other sectors are firmly planted in China with technology and personnel. Now, with the essentially closed border with China, the rest of the world waits and watches. To the business community, this is unsettling, to say the least, because there is no accurate predictor of when a vaccine may be found or when the world threat eradicated. Even when those pronouncements are ultimately made by Beijing there is the inherent distrust of information disseminated by the Chinese government.
So what does all of this mean for cross-border business in the short and long term?
An aerial view reveals that the movement of people and technology and deal closure have simply come to a halt. When the Chinese government, or other governments, or the WHO pronounce that it is safe to travel to China again, that will not be the end of it. There has been a worldwide reaction to the scare. The tradeshow and related cancellations have occurred not only in China but throughout Asia and into Europe. Therefore, a wide swath of activities are upended across all business sectors.
The rate of new cases slowed on Wednesday. As of this writing, there have been more than 45,000 cases of Covid-19 and over 1,100 deaths. Businesses from cruise ships to luxury brands and air travel, as well as global markets like oil, have all been hit. There can be no question that it will be a slow and painful process moving back to normalcy. Professional offices remain closed indefinitely, and 90% of businesses are closed or at dramatically reduced hours. Theaters, factories and others where people congregate are closed.
We are all familiar with the recent comparisons of coronavirus with SARS, but there is no real comparison. SARS was perceived as essentially a Hong Kong-centric event and everyone wondered if that would be the death of the HK economy, coming a few years after the handover. Moreover, social media and its impact on global interaction were just launching, and China’s interaction with the world economy was in its infancy.
Transparency will be the key to short term confidence which will lead to a long-term recovery. This is despite short-term pain and embarrassment. All governments can learn a lesson from this, but Beijing has yet to learn it. It may very well be that Wuhan, as ground zero for the Coronavirus, never recovers. The headlines today paint Wuhan as a pariah city, in a wartime battle and in lockdown. The Chinese Chernobyl. These characterizations will not be easily shed. Wuhan, as the capital of Hubei province, has positioned itself as a foreign investment hub and has developed trade, manufacturing and export and development zones to highlight its growth and position within China. Companies will have to assess whether or not their investments should remain in Wuhan or be moved.
Considering China’s impact on the world economy, China will not be off limits to future investment forever. Instead, there will be wariness and unbridled caution for the foreseeable future. Businesses will seek alternatives to avoid commercial and liability issues.
In the best case, returning to normal is not a reasonable expectation in the short term. In the long term, China must take all steps necessary to demonstrate its commitment to transparency regarding all factors relating to the virus. In today’s economy, there are many alternatives for trade and investment and China must recognize that its global trade partners need regular and repeated reassurances. Additionally, China will need to inject substantial financial incentives into the economy to balance against commercial and optical risks.
In the best of circumstances, this process will take six to nine months to see the way forward to a stable and commercially feasible reintroduction of business, confidence and renewed investment. This will require unrelenting adjustments as events require. There is no single action or vaccine that will erase the impact of the coronavirus. A group of actions are needed to restore the zeal and excitement for consumer, business, investment and tourism.
Anything less will create a lingering atmosphere of caution and distrust.
Source: CNBC
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Friday, 06 September 24
REBOUND IN OIL DEMAND COULD LIFT MARKET IN LATTER HALF OF 2024 - BIMCO
Supply/demand
Based on a strong second half demand, the supply/balance is forecast to strengthen in 2024 but weaken slightly in 2025 as n ...
Friday, 06 September 24
GLOBAL SEABORNE LNG TRADE HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE LAST YEAR - BANCHERO COSTA
Global seaborne LNG trade has continued to increase last year, helped also by the events in Ukraine which forced Europe to diversify away from Russ ...
Wednesday, 28 August 24
SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS INTO INDIA INCREASED BY +9.9% Y-O-Y TO 146.6 MLN T - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace over the past year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels said Banchero Costa Research in its lates ...
Tuesday, 06 August 24
EXERCISE CAUTION WITH AMMONIA SWITCH - BALTIC EXCHANGE
A new study from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) has thrown a spanner into the plan to transition ships from diesel fuel to ammonia ...
Friday, 02 August 24
ENERGY MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: COAL AND NATURAL GAS PRICES REACH RECORD HIGHS - WORLD BANK
The recent surge in natural gas and coal prices has been so swift that the main benchmarks were roughly three times higher in 2022Q2 compared to a ...
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- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- White Energy Company Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The University of Queensland
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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