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Friday, 14 February 20
WHY THE WORLD ECONOMY WILL BE FACING CHINA'S CORONAVIRUS FOR A LONG TIME - CNBC
 Everywhere we look we see the headlines and commentators talking about the coronavirus and its impact on tourism, trade and investment between China and the West — and China and the U.S., in particular. However, there are far-reaching effects that have not been contemplated fully beyond the intuitive assessment.
Things move slowly. China has long been known as a country with patience, which in business language translates to longer lead times in the transactional arena, sometimes exhaustive negotiations, and relationships are built over time. Many of these relationships are created in the environment of trade shows, conferences, information exchange platforms, and trade delegations. China has finely tuned this method of cross-border introductions and it is a continuous process.
Combined with this is the growth of the multinational business presence in China. Major retailers, manufacturers, pharmaceuticals, biotech, automotive and other sectors are firmly planted in China with technology and personnel. Now, with the essentially closed border with China, the rest of the world waits and watches. To the business community, this is unsettling, to say the least, because there is no accurate predictor of when a vaccine may be found or when the world threat eradicated. Even when those pronouncements are ultimately made by Beijing there is the inherent distrust of information disseminated by the Chinese government.
So what does all of this mean for cross-border business in the short and long term?
An aerial view reveals that the movement of people and technology and deal closure have simply come to a halt. When the Chinese government, or other governments, or the WHO pronounce that it is safe to travel to China again, that will not be the end of it. There has been a worldwide reaction to the scare. The tradeshow and related cancellations have occurred not only in China but throughout Asia and into Europe. Therefore, a wide swath of activities are upended across all business sectors.
The rate of new cases slowed on Wednesday. As of this writing, there have been more than 45,000 cases of Covid-19 and over 1,100 deaths. Businesses from cruise ships to luxury brands and air travel, as well as global markets like oil, have all been hit. There can be no question that it will be a slow and painful process moving back to normalcy. Professional offices remain closed indefinitely, and 90% of businesses are closed or at dramatically reduced hours. Theaters, factories and others where people congregate are closed.
We are all familiar with the recent comparisons of coronavirus with SARS, but there is no real comparison. SARS was perceived as essentially a Hong Kong-centric event and everyone wondered if that would be the death of the HK economy, coming a few years after the handover. Moreover, social media and its impact on global interaction were just launching, and China’s interaction with the world economy was in its infancy.
Transparency will be the key to short term confidence which will lead to a long-term recovery. This is despite short-term pain and embarrassment. All governments can learn a lesson from this, but Beijing has yet to learn it. It may very well be that Wuhan, as ground zero for the Coronavirus, never recovers. The headlines today paint Wuhan as a pariah city, in a wartime battle and in lockdown. The Chinese Chernobyl. These characterizations will not be easily shed. Wuhan, as the capital of Hubei province, has positioned itself as a foreign investment hub and has developed trade, manufacturing and export and development zones to highlight its growth and position within China. Companies will have to assess whether or not their investments should remain in Wuhan or be moved.
Considering China’s impact on the world economy, China will not be off limits to future investment forever. Instead, there will be wariness and unbridled caution for the foreseeable future. Businesses will seek alternatives to avoid commercial and liability issues.
In the best case, returning to normal is not a reasonable expectation in the short term. In the long term, China must take all steps necessary to demonstrate its commitment to transparency regarding all factors relating to the virus. In today’s economy, there are many alternatives for trade and investment and China must recognize that its global trade partners need regular and repeated reassurances. Additionally, China will need to inject substantial financial incentives into the economy to balance against commercial and optical risks.
In the best of circumstances, this process will take six to nine months to see the way forward to a stable and commercially feasible reintroduction of business, confidence and renewed investment. This will require unrelenting adjustments as events require. There is no single action or vaccine that will erase the impact of the coronavirus. A group of actions are needed to restore the zeal and excitement for consumer, business, investment and tourism.
Anything less will create a lingering atmosphere of caution and distrust.
Source: CNBC
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Friday, 06 September 24
REBOUND IN OIL DEMAND COULD LIFT MARKET IN LATTER HALF OF 2024 - BIMCO
Supply/demand
Based on a strong second half demand, the supply/balance is forecast to strengthen in 2024 but weaken slightly in 2025 as n ...
Friday, 06 September 24
GLOBAL SEABORNE LNG TRADE HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE LAST YEAR - BANCHERO COSTA
Global seaborne LNG trade has continued to increase last year, helped also by the events in Ukraine which forced Europe to diversify away from Russ ...
Wednesday, 28 August 24
SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS INTO INDIA INCREASED BY +9.9% Y-O-Y TO 146.6 MLN T - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace over the past year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels said Banchero Costa Research in its lates ...
Tuesday, 06 August 24
EXERCISE CAUTION WITH AMMONIA SWITCH - BALTIC EXCHANGE
A new study from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) has thrown a spanner into the plan to transition ships from diesel fuel to ammonia ...
Friday, 02 August 24
ENERGY MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: COAL AND NATURAL GAS PRICES REACH RECORD HIGHS - WORLD BANK
The recent surge in natural gas and coal prices has been so swift that the main benchmarks were roughly three times higher in 2022Q2 compared to a ...
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- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Planning Commission, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Australian Coal Association
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
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