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Wednesday, 12 February 20
CHANGES IN LNG MARKET COULD UNDERCUT PLANS FOR NEW JAPANESE COAL PLANTS - CLYDE RUSSELL
Reuters: Clyde Russell
The collapse in the spot price of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in Asia is a short-term phenomenon that may well end up having a longer-term impact, especially on thermal coal.
The spot price dropped to $2.95 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) for the week ended Feb. 7, the lowest price in records stretching back to 2010. It has lost 57% of its value since the pre-winter peak of $6.80 per mmBtu in mid-October, and is down 74% from the peak price in 2018 and 86% from the all-time high from February 2014.
While it’s unlikely that spot LNG prices will stay at the current depressed levels indefinitely, the trend toward structurally lower prices appears sustainable. There is still no shortage of LNG projects being built, with 17 million tonnes of capacity due to be commissioned this year alone, and considerably more likely in the next five years, as projects from Russia to East Africa start to come online.
This supply surge is likely to have two impacts on prices. Firstly, it will ensure that spot prices remain under downward pressure, and secondly, it will likely accelerate the shift away from long-term, oil-linked contracts to shorter-term, more flexibly priced deals.
This change in the way LNG is priced should give pause for considerable thought to any would-be developers of thermal coal power projects based on imported fuel in Asia, especially Japan. As a country that relies on imports for virtually all its energy, Japan has long prioritized security of supply and diversity in its energy mix. But perhaps the sands have shifted enough to lead to a re-think.
It would in all likelihood be possible to sign long-term or medium-term LNG supply pacts that are not linked to the price of crude oil, but rather to other instruments such as U.S. Henry Hub natural gas, or European gas prices, or even seaborne thermal coal costs. This could give Japan the security of supply it desires, but virtually eliminate the problem LNG has always had, its high cost relative to thermal coal.
Source: IEEFA | Reuters
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Wednesday, 02 February 22
COAL STORAGE IN CHINA’S POWER PLANTS NEAR RECORD HIGHS - XINHUA
Coal inflows into China’s power plants have picked up, bringing their coal storage to near record highs, the National Development and Reform ...
Wednesday, 02 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Oil prices have rallied to the highest level since October 2014 breaking above $90/bbl recently. November 2014 was the point when OPEC unleashed pr ...
Monday, 31 January 22
HOW INDONESIA'S COAL EXPORT BAN COULD IMPACT INDIA - IEEFA
What does it mean for power generation and energy security?
Not long ago, India faced coal shortages due to a decline in domestic co ...
Sunday, 30 January 22
AIR PRODUCTS' COAL GASIFICATION PROPOSAL TRIGGERS LOOMING POLICY DISPUTES IN INDONESIA - IEEFA
Plan to substitute Indonesia’s LPG imports with dimethyl ether may be hard to realize due to conflicting business interests
In ...
Sunday, 30 January 22
ENDGAME FOR NEW COAL POWER PROJECTS? - IEEFA INDIA
Retired coal units must be replaced only by assets that can provide grid flexibility
Reportedly, an expert committee appointed by th ...
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- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
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- Eastern Coal Council - USA
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- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
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- India Bulls Power Limited - India
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- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
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- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
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- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
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- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
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- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
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- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
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- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
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- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
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- Videocon Industries ltd - India
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- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
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