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Wednesday, 12 February 20
CHANGES IN LNG MARKET COULD UNDERCUT PLANS FOR NEW JAPANESE COAL PLANTS - CLYDE RUSSELL
Reuters: Clyde Russell
The collapse in the spot price of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in Asia is a short-term phenomenon that may well end up having a longer-term impact, especially on thermal coal.
The spot price dropped to $2.95 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) for the week ended Feb. 7, the lowest price in records stretching back to 2010. It has lost 57% of its value since the pre-winter peak of $6.80 per mmBtu in mid-October, and is down 74% from the peak price in 2018 and 86% from the all-time high from February 2014.
While it’s unlikely that spot LNG prices will stay at the current depressed levels indefinitely, the trend toward structurally lower prices appears sustainable. There is still no shortage of LNG projects being built, with 17 million tonnes of capacity due to be commissioned this year alone, and considerably more likely in the next five years, as projects from Russia to East Africa start to come online.
This supply surge is likely to have two impacts on prices. Firstly, it will ensure that spot prices remain under downward pressure, and secondly, it will likely accelerate the shift away from long-term, oil-linked contracts to shorter-term, more flexibly priced deals.
This change in the way LNG is priced should give pause for considerable thought to any would-be developers of thermal coal power projects based on imported fuel in Asia, especially Japan. As a country that relies on imports for virtually all its energy, Japan has long prioritized security of supply and diversity in its energy mix. But perhaps the sands have shifted enough to lead to a re-think.
It would in all likelihood be possible to sign long-term or medium-term LNG supply pacts that are not linked to the price of crude oil, but rather to other instruments such as U.S. Henry Hub natural gas, or European gas prices, or even seaborne thermal coal costs. This could give Japan the security of supply it desires, but virtually eliminate the problem LNG has always had, its high cost relative to thermal coal.
Source: IEEFA | Reuters
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Monday, 04 July 22
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE SLIGHTLY DOWN IN JULY
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference for July delivery drops 1.52 per cent month on month.
The Indonesian Coal Price Refere ...
Sunday, 03 July 22
CHINESE VICE PREMIER STRESSES CLEAN, EFFICIENT USE OF COAL - XINHUA
Chinese Vice Premier Han Zheng has stressed efforts to promote the clean and efficient use of coal, and pursue green, low-carbon and high-quality d ...
Sunday, 03 July 22
SOVEREIGN SECTOR OUTLOOK REVISED TO NEUTRAL ON UKRAINE WAR IMPACT - FITCH RATINGS
The deterioration in global sovereign credit conditions this year relative to our expectations at end-2021 has caused Fitch Ratings to change its g ...
Saturday, 02 July 22
GLOBAL SEABORNE COAL EXPORTS IN 2021 INCREASED BY 4.4% Y-O-Y TO 1147 MLN TONNES - BANCHERO COSTA
In the full 12 months of 2021, global seaborne coal exports increased by +4.4% y-o-y to 1147 mln tonnes, from 1099 mln tonnes in 2020, according to ...
Friday, 01 July 22
INDIA'S TOP CEMENT MAKER PAYING FOR RUSSIAN COAL IN CHINESE YUAN - REUTERS
India’s biggest cement producer, UltraTech Cement ULTC.NS, is importing a cargo of Russian coal and paying using Chinese yuan, according to a ...
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