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Tuesday, 14 January 20
MABUX: BUNKER MARKET THIS MORNING, JAN.14
MABUX World Bunker Index (consists of a range of prices for 380 HSFO, 180 HSFO and MGO (Gasoil) in the main world hubs) changed insignificant and irregular on Jan.13:
380 HSFO – USD/MT – 388.82 (+0.72)
VLSFO – USD/MT – 660.00 (-1.00)
MGO – USD/MT – 702.06 (+0.75)
Meantime, world oil indexes fell on Jan.13 as investors shifted their focus away from easing Mideast tensions to this week’s scheduled signing of an initial U.S.-China trade deal.
Brent for March settlement declined by $0.78 to $64.20 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. West Texas Intermediate for February fell by $0.96 to $58.08 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The Brent benchmark traded at the premium of $6.12 to WTI. Gasoil for February delivery lost $16.75.
Today morning global oil indexes do not have any firm trend.
It is expected that the U.S. and China agreement is already largely discounted in the price level, and is unlikely to provide a strong boost to oil prices. A U.S.-China trade deal is due to be signed in Washington on Jan.15. The Trump administration has invited at least 200 people to a ceremony for the signing, but the two nations have not yet finalised details of what will be signed.
This year, Chinese crude oil demand growth could be just half of the estimated growth for 2019, and the lowest growth pace since the financial crisis in 2008. Apparent demand for oil in China—calculated by adding domestic production to net imports and changes to inventories—is set to increase by just 2.4 percent in 2020, less than half the 5.2-percent growth estimated for 2019. the impact of the U.S.-China trade war will continue to be felt in the Chinese economy, whose growth will linger at 6 percent.
Last week, the U.S. House of Representatives voted to curb U.S. President Donald Trump’s power to strike Iran. Meanwhile, in comments to Fox News, Vice President Mike Pence said the Islamic Republic has asked militias in the Middle East not to carry out attacks against U.S. interests. The situation in Iran remained volatile, however, as its citizens protested after the government admitted on Jan.11 that it had mistakenly show down a Ukrainian passenger jet, killing all 176 people on board. Iran’s government said it was forming a working group to probe the crash and compensate victims.
OPEC not only continued to cut its crude oil production in December 2019, but it also managed to reach its deeper-cut target for Q1 2020 a month earlier than planned. As in all previous months, Saudi Arabia overcomplied significantly with its share of the cuts, helping the cartel achieve the new quota effective January a month early (Saudi Arabia’s December oil production was 9.82 million bpd: a way below the December quota of 10.3 million bpd. The Saudis were still compensating for rogue OPEC members Iraq and Nigeria, which, despite cutting their respective production, were still not complying with their December quotas. OPEC’s total crude oil production stood at 29.55 million bpd in December, down by 100,000 bpd compared to November.
Rystad Energy continues to see a downward risk to prices, with further pressure on OPEC to implement even deeper production cuts in order to keep Brent oil prices around $60 per barrel through 2020. Oil prices still react dramatically to news of tensions in the Persian Gulf, although less dramatically now than they would have before the US shale revolution. The importance of the region for oil markets is obvious, given that seven Gulf countries alone – Saudi Arabia, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, Iran, Oman and Qatar – produced around 24 million bpd of crude oil in December 2019. Rystad Energy forecasts that the ‘call’ on OPEC will average about 28.3 million bpd during the final nine months of 2020. By comparison, OPECs actual production in December 2019 was 29.6 million bpd, and the cartel’s new implied production target for the first quarter of 2020 is 29.2 million bpd.
The Chinese Maritime Safety Administration (MSA) has rooted out two cases of ships using fuel that did not comply with the new IMO 2020 regulations. In statement issued on 10 January, the Standard Club revealed that it had received reports about the incidents. In one case, the ship was under a Port State Control inspection in Qingdao when the MSA verified the use of fuel oil with a sulphur content of .6777% mm. The MSA also found that a ship berthed in Xiamen has been burning non-compliant fuel. The ship had been at berth nearly six days after changing over to compliant fuel – and it is likely that previous high sulphur fuel residue remained in the engine fuel system resulting in emissions over the China ECA limit. It is ‘not clear yet whether the MSA will fine the ships for the IMO 2020 violations.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) said, by 2040, India’s oil consumption is set to increase at the fastest pace than any major economy in the world as the country is becoming increasingly influential in global energy markets. Currently, India is the world’s third largest consumer of oil, the fourth largest oil refiner, and a net exporter of refined products. India’s oil demand growth rate is expected to surpass the growth pace of China in the middle of the 2020s, making India a very attractive market for refinery investment. Besides, India’s oil import dependency is set to rise significantly in coming decades, from an already high dependency of over 80 percent in 2018.
We expect bunker prices may go down today in a range of minus 3-6 USD for IFO and minus 9-15 USD for MGO.
Source: MABUX
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Tuesday, 14 January 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
Uncertainty in the global geopolitical sphere seems to have not come to an end along with 2019, as 2020 commenced with renewed tensions between the ...
Tuesday, 14 January 20
DRY BULK MARKET: "THIS IS NOT THE END OF COAL" SAYS IEA - BALTIC EXCHANGE
A historic drop in coal-fired electricity generation will not sway global coal demand from its upward trajectory through to 2024, though growth wil ...
Saturday, 11 January 20
ARE YOU 95% CONFIDENT THAT YOUR VERY LOW SULPHUR FUEL IS ON SPEC AND MARPOL COMPLIANT? - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Bunker fuel is a commodity and, like all commodities, is produced and sold according to specifications. Bunkers are usual ...
Saturday, 11 January 20
NEW PRICING COULD SPELL TROUBLE FOR CHINA'S COAL SECTOR - CHINA DIALOGUE
Benchmark coal tariffs have been the foundation of China’s electricity pricing since 2004 but this mechanism was replaced on January 1 with a ...
Saturday, 11 January 20
BALTIC BRIEFING TANKER REPORT - WEEK 2
VLCC
Escalating tensions between the USA and Iran, in addition to a continuing strong market, made for an interesting week, with rates firming ...
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- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- White Energy Company Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Minerals Council of Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The University of Queensland
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
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