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Tuesday, 14 January 20
MABUX: BUNKER MARKET THIS MORNING, JAN.14
MABUX World Bunker Index (consists of a range of prices for 380 HSFO, 180 HSFO and MGO (Gasoil) in the main world hubs) changed insignificant and irregular on Jan.13:
380 HSFO – USD/MT – 388.82 (+0.72)
VLSFO – USD/MT – 660.00 (-1.00)
MGO – USD/MT – 702.06 (+0.75)
Meantime, world oil indexes fell on Jan.13 as investors shifted their focus away from easing Mideast tensions to this week’s scheduled signing of an initial U.S.-China trade deal.
Brent for March settlement declined by $0.78 to $64.20 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. West Texas Intermediate for February fell by $0.96 to $58.08 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The Brent benchmark traded at the premium of $6.12 to WTI. Gasoil for February delivery lost $16.75.
Today morning global oil indexes do not have any firm trend.
It is expected that the U.S. and China agreement is already largely discounted in the price level, and is unlikely to provide a strong boost to oil prices. A U.S.-China trade deal is due to be signed in Washington on Jan.15. The Trump administration has invited at least 200 people to a ceremony for the signing, but the two nations have not yet finalised details of what will be signed.
This year, Chinese crude oil demand growth could be just half of the estimated growth for 2019, and the lowest growth pace since the financial crisis in 2008. Apparent demand for oil in China—calculated by adding domestic production to net imports and changes to inventories—is set to increase by just 2.4 percent in 2020, less than half the 5.2-percent growth estimated for 2019. the impact of the U.S.-China trade war will continue to be felt in the Chinese economy, whose growth will linger at 6 percent.
Last week, the U.S. House of Representatives voted to curb U.S. President Donald Trump’s power to strike Iran. Meanwhile, in comments to Fox News, Vice President Mike Pence said the Islamic Republic has asked militias in the Middle East not to carry out attacks against U.S. interests. The situation in Iran remained volatile, however, as its citizens protested after the government admitted on Jan.11 that it had mistakenly show down a Ukrainian passenger jet, killing all 176 people on board. Iran’s government said it was forming a working group to probe the crash and compensate victims.
OPEC not only continued to cut its crude oil production in December 2019, but it also managed to reach its deeper-cut target for Q1 2020 a month earlier than planned. As in all previous months, Saudi Arabia overcomplied significantly with its share of the cuts, helping the cartel achieve the new quota effective January a month early (Saudi Arabia’s December oil production was 9.82 million bpd: a way below the December quota of 10.3 million bpd. The Saudis were still compensating for rogue OPEC members Iraq and Nigeria, which, despite cutting their respective production, were still not complying with their December quotas. OPEC’s total crude oil production stood at 29.55 million bpd in December, down by 100,000 bpd compared to November.
Rystad Energy continues to see a downward risk to prices, with further pressure on OPEC to implement even deeper production cuts in order to keep Brent oil prices around $60 per barrel through 2020. Oil prices still react dramatically to news of tensions in the Persian Gulf, although less dramatically now than they would have before the US shale revolution. The importance of the region for oil markets is obvious, given that seven Gulf countries alone – Saudi Arabia, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, Iran, Oman and Qatar – produced around 24 million bpd of crude oil in December 2019. Rystad Energy forecasts that the ‘call’ on OPEC will average about 28.3 million bpd during the final nine months of 2020. By comparison, OPECs actual production in December 2019 was 29.6 million bpd, and the cartel’s new implied production target for the first quarter of 2020 is 29.2 million bpd.
The Chinese Maritime Safety Administration (MSA) has rooted out two cases of ships using fuel that did not comply with the new IMO 2020 regulations. In statement issued on 10 January, the Standard Club revealed that it had received reports about the incidents. In one case, the ship was under a Port State Control inspection in Qingdao when the MSA verified the use of fuel oil with a sulphur content of .6777% mm. The MSA also found that a ship berthed in Xiamen has been burning non-compliant fuel. The ship had been at berth nearly six days after changing over to compliant fuel – and it is likely that previous high sulphur fuel residue remained in the engine fuel system resulting in emissions over the China ECA limit. It is ‘not clear yet whether the MSA will fine the ships for the IMO 2020 violations.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) said, by 2040, India’s oil consumption is set to increase at the fastest pace than any major economy in the world as the country is becoming increasingly influential in global energy markets. Currently, India is the world’s third largest consumer of oil, the fourth largest oil refiner, and a net exporter of refined products. India’s oil demand growth rate is expected to surpass the growth pace of China in the middle of the 2020s, making India a very attractive market for refinery investment. Besides, India’s oil import dependency is set to rise significantly in coming decades, from an already high dependency of over 80 percent in 2018.
We expect bunker prices may go down today in a range of minus 3-6 USD for IFO and minus 9-15 USD for MGO.
Source: MABUX
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Thursday, 25 January 24
THE RED SEA ESCALATION IMPLICATIONS ON GLOBAL SEABORNE TRADE - MARIA BERTZELETOU
In recent days, discussions have intensified about the potential impact on the seaborne trade and ton-miles due to the evolving dynamics of market ...
Thursday, 25 January 24
RED SEA SHIPPING DISRUPTIONS KEEP GEOPOLITICAL PREMIUM FOR COMMODITIES - FITCH RATINGS
Shipping disruptions and re-routing away from the Red Sea will maintain the geopolitical premium in the main commodity markets, including for oil a ...
Friday, 19 January 24
INDONESIA TARGETS 710 MLN METRIC TONS COAL OUTPUT IN 2024 AFTER RECORD 2023 - REUTERS
Indonesia, a major thermal coal exporter, aims to produce 710 million metric tons of coal in 2024, its mining minister said on Monday, after postin ...
Friday, 19 January 24
DRUMMOND COLOMBIA COAL OUTPUT ROSE 7.1% IN 2023 - REUTERS
Coal production from miner Drummond’s Colombia operations rose 7.1% in 2023 to 29.5 million metric tons, while exports declined by 2.6% to 27 ...
Friday, 19 January 24
CHINA'S 2023 COAL OUTPUT HITS RECORD HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal output reached a record high in 2023, data from the statistics bureau showed on Wednesday, amid an ongoing focus on energy secur ...
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- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Planning Commission, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
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