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Tuesday, 14 January 20
MABUX: BUNKER MARKET THIS MORNING, JAN.14
MABUX World Bunker Index (consists of a range of prices for 380 HSFO, 180 HSFO and MGO (Gasoil) in the main world hubs) changed insignificant and irregular on Jan.13:
380 HSFO – USD/MT – 388.82 (+0.72)
VLSFO – USD/MT – 660.00 (-1.00)
MGO – USD/MT – 702.06 (+0.75)
Meantime, world oil indexes fell on Jan.13 as investors shifted their focus away from easing Mideast tensions to this week’s scheduled signing of an initial U.S.-China trade deal.
Brent for March settlement declined by $0.78 to $64.20 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. West Texas Intermediate for February fell by $0.96 to $58.08 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The Brent benchmark traded at the premium of $6.12 to WTI. Gasoil for February delivery lost $16.75.
Today morning global oil indexes do not have any firm trend.
It is expected that the U.S. and China agreement is already largely discounted in the price level, and is unlikely to provide a strong boost to oil prices. A U.S.-China trade deal is due to be signed in Washington on Jan.15. The Trump administration has invited at least 200 people to a ceremony for the signing, but the two nations have not yet finalised details of what will be signed.
This year, Chinese crude oil demand growth could be just half of the estimated growth for 2019, and the lowest growth pace since the financial crisis in 2008. Apparent demand for oil in China—calculated by adding domestic production to net imports and changes to inventories—is set to increase by just 2.4 percent in 2020, less than half the 5.2-percent growth estimated for 2019. the impact of the U.S.-China trade war will continue to be felt in the Chinese economy, whose growth will linger at 6 percent.
Last week, the U.S. House of Representatives voted to curb U.S. President Donald Trump’s power to strike Iran. Meanwhile, in comments to Fox News, Vice President Mike Pence said the Islamic Republic has asked militias in the Middle East not to carry out attacks against U.S. interests. The situation in Iran remained volatile, however, as its citizens protested after the government admitted on Jan.11 that it had mistakenly show down a Ukrainian passenger jet, killing all 176 people on board. Iran’s government said it was forming a working group to probe the crash and compensate victims.
OPEC not only continued to cut its crude oil production in December 2019, but it also managed to reach its deeper-cut target for Q1 2020 a month earlier than planned. As in all previous months, Saudi Arabia overcomplied significantly with its share of the cuts, helping the cartel achieve the new quota effective January a month early (Saudi Arabia’s December oil production was 9.82 million bpd: a way below the December quota of 10.3 million bpd. The Saudis were still compensating for rogue OPEC members Iraq and Nigeria, which, despite cutting their respective production, were still not complying with their December quotas. OPEC’s total crude oil production stood at 29.55 million bpd in December, down by 100,000 bpd compared to November.
Rystad Energy continues to see a downward risk to prices, with further pressure on OPEC to implement even deeper production cuts in order to keep Brent oil prices around $60 per barrel through 2020. Oil prices still react dramatically to news of tensions in the Persian Gulf, although less dramatically now than they would have before the US shale revolution. The importance of the region for oil markets is obvious, given that seven Gulf countries alone – Saudi Arabia, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, Iran, Oman and Qatar – produced around 24 million bpd of crude oil in December 2019. Rystad Energy forecasts that the ‘call’ on OPEC will average about 28.3 million bpd during the final nine months of 2020. By comparison, OPECs actual production in December 2019 was 29.6 million bpd, and the cartel’s new implied production target for the first quarter of 2020 is 29.2 million bpd.
The Chinese Maritime Safety Administration (MSA) has rooted out two cases of ships using fuel that did not comply with the new IMO 2020 regulations. In statement issued on 10 January, the Standard Club revealed that it had received reports about the incidents. In one case, the ship was under a Port State Control inspection in Qingdao when the MSA verified the use of fuel oil with a sulphur content of .6777% mm. The MSA also found that a ship berthed in Xiamen has been burning non-compliant fuel. The ship had been at berth nearly six days after changing over to compliant fuel – and it is likely that previous high sulphur fuel residue remained in the engine fuel system resulting in emissions over the China ECA limit. It is ‘not clear yet whether the MSA will fine the ships for the IMO 2020 violations.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) said, by 2040, India’s oil consumption is set to increase at the fastest pace than any major economy in the world as the country is becoming increasingly influential in global energy markets. Currently, India is the world’s third largest consumer of oil, the fourth largest oil refiner, and a net exporter of refined products. India’s oil demand growth rate is expected to surpass the growth pace of China in the middle of the 2020s, making India a very attractive market for refinery investment. Besides, India’s oil import dependency is set to rise significantly in coming decades, from an already high dependency of over 80 percent in 2018.
We expect bunker prices may go down today in a range of minus 3-6 USD for IFO and minus 9-15 USD for MGO.
Source: MABUX
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Thursday, 25 January 24
THE RED SEA ESCALATION IMPLICATIONS ON GLOBAL SEABORNE TRADE - MARIA BERTZELETOU
In recent days, discussions have intensified about the potential impact on the seaborne trade and ton-miles due to the evolving dynamics of market ...
Thursday, 25 January 24
RED SEA SHIPPING DISRUPTIONS KEEP GEOPOLITICAL PREMIUM FOR COMMODITIES - FITCH RATINGS
Shipping disruptions and re-routing away from the Red Sea will maintain the geopolitical premium in the main commodity markets, including for oil a ...
Friday, 19 January 24
INDONESIA TARGETS 710 MLN METRIC TONS COAL OUTPUT IN 2024 AFTER RECORD 2023 - REUTERS
Indonesia, a major thermal coal exporter, aims to produce 710 million metric tons of coal in 2024, its mining minister said on Monday, after postin ...
Friday, 19 January 24
DRUMMOND COLOMBIA COAL OUTPUT ROSE 7.1% IN 2023 - REUTERS
Coal production from miner Drummond’s Colombia operations rose 7.1% in 2023 to 29.5 million metric tons, while exports declined by 2.6% to 27 ...
Friday, 19 January 24
CHINA'S 2023 COAL OUTPUT HITS RECORD HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal output reached a record high in 2023, data from the statistics bureau showed on Wednesday, amid an ongoing focus on energy secur ...
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- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The University of Queensland
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Planning Commission, India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
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