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Tuesday, 14 January 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
 Uncertainty in the global geopolitical sphere seems to have not come to an end along with 2019, as 2020 commenced with renewed tensions between the US and Iran.These events escalated considerably and once again brought to the forefront the possibility for further geopolitical instability and disruptions to the global economic ecosystem (including along with it the shipping markets). The shockwaves of the increased tensions between the two countries pushed oil price above the US$ 70 per barrel mark, while gold, the safe haven choice for investors, rose to a seven-year high of around US$1,575/oz. The slowdown noted during the last few days though has helped alleviate recent concerns regarding global trade, but nevertheless the initial signals of 2020 are not exactly encouraging.
The risk of potential supply disruptions in the Middle East region has increased since last week, a fact that could generate significant problems for shipping routes from the Middle East Gulf to Europe and Asia. Despite the assurances made by Saudi Arabian= officials that oil production and supply will not encounter any issues, no one can predict with certainty what the next steps by Iran or the U.S. will be. Oil and LNG are the= commodities that are in the highest danger from the recent escalation in the tensions
between Washington and Teheran. It is worth mentioning that the Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important oil chokepoint with the daily trade passing through in 2018 being estimated at 21 million b/d. Iran had in the past threatened to close the passage in case of war in the region. This uncertainty is likely to lead to higher freight rates in the region (possibly with higher risk insurance premiums), but with the impact that a further escalation may have to the global trade being yet difficult to predict.
Putting the Middle East conflict aside, focus is also placed on the continuing trade tension saga between the US and China, with Phase 1 of the trade deal between the two countries expected to be signed later this week. The effect of this deal is questionable, as the 86-page agreement has not yet been made public, with several experts doubting how effective this deal is. Given that China’s growth rate is expected to decelerate even further this year (World Bank estimates a rate of 5.9% for 2020), market participants are waiting on the trade and economic data that China is expected to publish later this week in order to shape a better view as to the prospects of this Asian giant. The impact from the trade conflict were significant last year, with global trade growth being just 1.4%, the lowest since the 2008 financial crisis. This year global trade growth is expected to slightly improve but with the rate still remaining at comparatively low levels. Meanwhile, at the end of this month, we also expect Britain to leave the EU, a step that will bring the two on the next phase of the negotiation process where the future trading relationship between the two sides will be discussed. The result of these negotiations and the impact that they may have on the global economy is still fairly sketchy. Furthermore, we must not forget that we have the US presidential elections set to take place this November, the result of which will surely have a long-term impact on the US, as well the global economy.
All in all, global growth forecasts are not so optimistic for 2020, with several investment experts suggesting that the likelihood of recession this year has increased and even if we do not encounter one this year, the growth rate will remain close to the low of 2.3-2.5% that we witnessed last year as well.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Tuesday, 14 January 20
MABUX: BUNKER MARKET THIS MORNING, JAN.14
MABUX World Bunker Index (consists of a range of prices for 380 HSFO, 180 HSFO and MGO (Gasoil) in the main world hubs) changed insignificant and i ...
Tuesday, 14 January 20
DRY BULK MARKET: "THIS IS NOT THE END OF COAL" SAYS IEA - BALTIC EXCHANGE
A historic drop in coal-fired electricity generation will not sway global coal demand from its upward trajectory through to 2024, though growth wil ...
Saturday, 11 January 20
ARE YOU 95% CONFIDENT THAT YOUR VERY LOW SULPHUR FUEL IS ON SPEC AND MARPOL COMPLIANT? - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Bunker fuel is a commodity and, like all commodities, is produced and sold according to specifications. Bunkers are usual ...
Saturday, 11 January 20
NEW PRICING COULD SPELL TROUBLE FOR CHINA'S COAL SECTOR - CHINA DIALOGUE
Benchmark coal tariffs have been the foundation of China’s electricity pricing since 2004 but this mechanism was replaced on January 1 with a ...
Saturday, 11 January 20
BALTIC BRIEFING TANKER REPORT - WEEK 2
VLCC
Escalating tensions between the USA and Iran, in addition to a continuing strong market, made for an interesting week, with rates firming ...
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- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The University of Queensland
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Australian Coal Association
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
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