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Tuesday, 14 January 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
 Uncertainty in the global geopolitical sphere seems to have not come to an end along with 2019, as 2020 commenced with renewed tensions between the US and Iran.These events escalated considerably and once again brought to the forefront the possibility for further geopolitical instability and disruptions to the global economic ecosystem (including along with it the shipping markets). The shockwaves of the increased tensions between the two countries pushed oil price above the US$ 70 per barrel mark, while gold, the safe haven choice for investors, rose to a seven-year high of around US$1,575/oz. The slowdown noted during the last few days though has helped alleviate recent concerns regarding global trade, but nevertheless the initial signals of 2020 are not exactly encouraging.
The risk of potential supply disruptions in the Middle East region has increased since last week, a fact that could generate significant problems for shipping routes from the Middle East Gulf to Europe and Asia. Despite the assurances made by Saudi Arabian= officials that oil production and supply will not encounter any issues, no one can predict with certainty what the next steps by Iran or the U.S. will be. Oil and LNG are the= commodities that are in the highest danger from the recent escalation in the tensions
between Washington and Teheran. It is worth mentioning that the Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important oil chokepoint with the daily trade passing through in 2018 being estimated at 21 million b/d. Iran had in the past threatened to close the passage in case of war in the region. This uncertainty is likely to lead to higher freight rates in the region (possibly with higher risk insurance premiums), but with the impact that a further escalation may have to the global trade being yet difficult to predict.
Putting the Middle East conflict aside, focus is also placed on the continuing trade tension saga between the US and China, with Phase 1 of the trade deal between the two countries expected to be signed later this week. The effect of this deal is questionable, as the 86-page agreement has not yet been made public, with several experts doubting how effective this deal is. Given that China’s growth rate is expected to decelerate even further this year (World Bank estimates a rate of 5.9% for 2020), market participants are waiting on the trade and economic data that China is expected to publish later this week in order to shape a better view as to the prospects of this Asian giant. The impact from the trade conflict were significant last year, with global trade growth being just 1.4%, the lowest since the 2008 financial crisis. This year global trade growth is expected to slightly improve but with the rate still remaining at comparatively low levels. Meanwhile, at the end of this month, we also expect Britain to leave the EU, a step that will bring the two on the next phase of the negotiation process where the future trading relationship between the two sides will be discussed. The result of these negotiations and the impact that they may have on the global economy is still fairly sketchy. Furthermore, we must not forget that we have the US presidential elections set to take place this November, the result of which will surely have a long-term impact on the US, as well the global economy.
All in all, global growth forecasts are not so optimistic for 2020, with several investment experts suggesting that the likelihood of recession this year has increased and even if we do not encounter one this year, the growth rate will remain close to the low of 2.3-2.5% that we witnessed last year as well.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Friday, 06 September 24
REBOUND IN OIL DEMAND COULD LIFT MARKET IN LATTER HALF OF 2024 - BIMCO
Supply/demand
Based on a strong second half demand, the supply/balance is forecast to strengthen in 2024 but weaken slightly in 2025 as n ...
Friday, 06 September 24
GLOBAL SEABORNE LNG TRADE HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE LAST YEAR - BANCHERO COSTA
Global seaborne LNG trade has continued to increase last year, helped also by the events in Ukraine which forced Europe to diversify away from Russ ...
Wednesday, 28 August 24
SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS INTO INDIA INCREASED BY +9.9% Y-O-Y TO 146.6 MLN T - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace over the past year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels said Banchero Costa Research in its lates ...
Tuesday, 06 August 24
EXERCISE CAUTION WITH AMMONIA SWITCH - BALTIC EXCHANGE
A new study from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) has thrown a spanner into the plan to transition ships from diesel fuel to ammonia ...
Friday, 02 August 24
ENERGY MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: COAL AND NATURAL GAS PRICES REACH RECORD HIGHS - WORLD BANK
The recent surge in natural gas and coal prices has been so swift that the main benchmarks were roughly three times higher in 2022Q2 compared to a ...
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- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
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