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Friday, 27 December 19
MISERY LOOMS OVER TOP COAL SHIPPERS AS CHINA TO BUY LESS IN 2020 BLOOMBERG
 China isn’t cutting back on consumption of the most-polluting fossil fuel just yet, but it is set to reduce imports.
The world’s biggest coal buyer will likely purchase less from overseas in 2020 after a boost this year, according to analysts. With domestic production rising to a record and overall demand nearing a plateau, miners from top exporters such as Indonesia and Australia will find themselves squeezed.
China’s coal imports have raced ahead in 2019, surprising many who had predicted that the government would strictly clamp down on shipments in the later months just as it did in 2018. With economic growth at its weakest in decades amid a trade war with the U.S., import curbs were eased on the nation’s most-consumed fuel to help mitigate the pain of a slowdown.
Beijing regularly limits coal imports to buttress domestic miners amid a broader campaign to reduce the nation’s reliance on the fuel. Underpinning forecasts for lower imports in 2020 is the outlook for rising domestic supply as China promotes bigger and more efficient mining operations.
“New supply will create a coal glut,” said Michelle Leung, an analyst with Bloomberg Intelligence. That’s likely to cut China’s net imports by 8% in 2020 and hurt profitability of miners in Australia and Indonesia, she added.
China bought 299 million tons of coal for power and steel in the first 11 months, 10% higher than year-ago levels and a record for the period. It’s on course to exceed a 200 million- to 300 million-ton range touted by an industry official as necessary to support domestic miners and maintain balanced trade with exporting nations.
With more local supply to come in 2020, Chinese import controls will be a lasting feature and lead to a 25 million-ton drop in thermal coal purchases next year, Morgan Stanley estimates. The cutback will offset demand growth elsewhere in Asia, and seaborne prices may extend a slump to average $66 a ton from about $79 in 2019, the bank said.
For a country that burns and produces half the world’s coal, the strength of China’s import curbs may vary depending on the government’s competing priorities of protecting domestic miners and power plants. Utilities will face added pressure from January when market reforms are expected to result in lower electricity prices, which may hit their bottom line.
“The government wants to boost the economy any way it can, and a good way to do that is to let generators get the cheapest coal,” said James Stevenson, global director for coal research at IHS Markit Ltd. “At the same time, it doesn’t want imported coal risking domestic mining jobs.”
Market Revamp
Zeng Hao, an analyst at Fenwei Energy Information Services Co., is among the few expecting China to further relax its grip on coal imports in 2020 as policy makers would be disinclined to intervene in “market-based activity” amid the slowing economy, he said.
Economists surveyed by Bloomberg this month expect China’s top leadership to set the target for economic growth at “about 6%” for 2020, which implies a continuation of the growth slowdown. The goal for this year is 6% to 6.5%.
Given the oversupply in China’s coal market, domestic prices are likely to remain at low levels next year, said Zhai Yu, a senior consultant at Wood Mackenzie Ltd. based in Beijing. That will reduce the attractiveness of overseas cargoes.
Spot coal at the main Qinhuangdao port is at a three-year low of 543 yuan a ton. A slide toward 500 yuan could motivate the government to step up restrictions on imports, he said.
Source: Bloomberg
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Friday, 23 February 24
STRONG OUTLOOK FOR THE TANKER MARKET IN 2024 AND BEYOND - DNV
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Friday, 23 February 24
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Thursday, 22 February 24
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Monday, 19 February 24
METALS INVESTMENT: THE DARKEST HOUR IS JUST BEFORE THE DAWN - WOOD MACKENZIE
Things often seem at their worst just before they get better. In terms of meeting our net zero 2050 scenario, we’ve reached a watershed momen ...
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- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Minerals Council of Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
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