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Friday, 27 December 19
MISERY LOOMS OVER TOP COAL SHIPPERS AS CHINA TO BUY LESS IN 2020 BLOOMBERG
 China isn’t cutting back on consumption of the most-polluting fossil fuel just yet, but it is set to reduce imports.
The world’s biggest coal buyer will likely purchase less from overseas in 2020 after a boost this year, according to analysts. With domestic production rising to a record and overall demand nearing a plateau, miners from top exporters such as Indonesia and Australia will find themselves squeezed.
China’s coal imports have raced ahead in 2019, surprising many who had predicted that the government would strictly clamp down on shipments in the later months just as it did in 2018. With economic growth at its weakest in decades amid a trade war with the U.S., import curbs were eased on the nation’s most-consumed fuel to help mitigate the pain of a slowdown.
Beijing regularly limits coal imports to buttress domestic miners amid a broader campaign to reduce the nation’s reliance on the fuel. Underpinning forecasts for lower imports in 2020 is the outlook for rising domestic supply as China promotes bigger and more efficient mining operations.
“New supply will create a coal glut,” said Michelle Leung, an analyst with Bloomberg Intelligence. That’s likely to cut China’s net imports by 8% in 2020 and hurt profitability of miners in Australia and Indonesia, she added.
China bought 299 million tons of coal for power and steel in the first 11 months, 10% higher than year-ago levels and a record for the period. It’s on course to exceed a 200 million- to 300 million-ton range touted by an industry official as necessary to support domestic miners and maintain balanced trade with exporting nations.
With more local supply to come in 2020, Chinese import controls will be a lasting feature and lead to a 25 million-ton drop in thermal coal purchases next year, Morgan Stanley estimates. The cutback will offset demand growth elsewhere in Asia, and seaborne prices may extend a slump to average $66 a ton from about $79 in 2019, the bank said.
For a country that burns and produces half the world’s coal, the strength of China’s import curbs may vary depending on the government’s competing priorities of protecting domestic miners and power plants. Utilities will face added pressure from January when market reforms are expected to result in lower electricity prices, which may hit their bottom line.
“The government wants to boost the economy any way it can, and a good way to do that is to let generators get the cheapest coal,” said James Stevenson, global director for coal research at IHS Markit Ltd. “At the same time, it doesn’t want imported coal risking domestic mining jobs.”
Market Revamp
Zeng Hao, an analyst at Fenwei Energy Information Services Co., is among the few expecting China to further relax its grip on coal imports in 2020 as policy makers would be disinclined to intervene in “market-based activity” amid the slowing economy, he said.
Economists surveyed by Bloomberg this month expect China’s top leadership to set the target for economic growth at “about 6%” for 2020, which implies a continuation of the growth slowdown. The goal for this year is 6% to 6.5%.
Given the oversupply in China’s coal market, domestic prices are likely to remain at low levels next year, said Zhai Yu, a senior consultant at Wood Mackenzie Ltd. based in Beijing. That will reduce the attractiveness of overseas cargoes.
Spot coal at the main Qinhuangdao port is at a three-year low of 543 yuan a ton. A slide toward 500 yuan could motivate the government to step up restrictions on imports, he said.
Source: Bloomberg
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Sunday, 22 December 19
TRADING PLACES FOR 2020 - BALTIC EXCHANGE
In the sea of 2020 predictions, Saxo Bank’s Outrageous Predictions sail their own very unique course. For nearly 20 years the Danish investme ...
Saturday, 21 December 19
SUPRAMAX: A 63,000 DWT VESSEL, OPEN CIGADING, FIXED A TRIP VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY WEST COAST INDIA, AT $8,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market this past week has been attempting to recalibrate itself in consideration of weakening freight levels and increasi ...
Saturday, 21 December 19
SHIPPING'S SUPPLY AND DEMAND TRENDING OFF BALANCE - BIMCO
One of the most worrying trends that has developed recently – which will affect shipping demand in the years to come – is the falling t ...
Friday, 20 December 19
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE REMAINS FLAT - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price remained flat during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Thursday, 19 December 19
COAL POWER GENERATION CONTINUES TO DECLINE IN GERMANY: DESTATIS, XINHUA REPORTED
The volume of electricity generated in coal-fired power plants in Germany decreased “markedly” by 37 percent to 34 billion kilowatt-hou ...
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- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
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- White Energy Company Limited
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- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
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- Agrawal Coal Company - India
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- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
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- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
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- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
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- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
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- Deloitte Consulting - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
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- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
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- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
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- SMC Global Power, Philippines
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- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
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- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
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- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
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- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
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- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
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- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
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- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
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- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
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- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
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- The Treasury - Australian Government
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- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
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- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
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- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
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- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
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- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
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