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Friday, 27 December 19
MISERY LOOMS OVER TOP COAL SHIPPERS AS CHINA TO BUY LESS IN 2020 BLOOMBERG
 China isn’t cutting back on consumption of the most-polluting fossil fuel just yet, but it is set to reduce imports.
The world’s biggest coal buyer will likely purchase less from overseas in 2020 after a boost this year, according to analysts. With domestic production rising to a record and overall demand nearing a plateau, miners from top exporters such as Indonesia and Australia will find themselves squeezed.
China’s coal imports have raced ahead in 2019, surprising many who had predicted that the government would strictly clamp down on shipments in the later months just as it did in 2018. With economic growth at its weakest in decades amid a trade war with the U.S., import curbs were eased on the nation’s most-consumed fuel to help mitigate the pain of a slowdown.
Beijing regularly limits coal imports to buttress domestic miners amid a broader campaign to reduce the nation’s reliance on the fuel. Underpinning forecasts for lower imports in 2020 is the outlook for rising domestic supply as China promotes bigger and more efficient mining operations.
“New supply will create a coal glut,” said Michelle Leung, an analyst with Bloomberg Intelligence. That’s likely to cut China’s net imports by 8% in 2020 and hurt profitability of miners in Australia and Indonesia, she added.
China bought 299 million tons of coal for power and steel in the first 11 months, 10% higher than year-ago levels and a record for the period. It’s on course to exceed a 200 million- to 300 million-ton range touted by an industry official as necessary to support domestic miners and maintain balanced trade with exporting nations.
With more local supply to come in 2020, Chinese import controls will be a lasting feature and lead to a 25 million-ton drop in thermal coal purchases next year, Morgan Stanley estimates. The cutback will offset demand growth elsewhere in Asia, and seaborne prices may extend a slump to average $66 a ton from about $79 in 2019, the bank said.
For a country that burns and produces half the world’s coal, the strength of China’s import curbs may vary depending on the government’s competing priorities of protecting domestic miners and power plants. Utilities will face added pressure from January when market reforms are expected to result in lower electricity prices, which may hit their bottom line.
“The government wants to boost the economy any way it can, and a good way to do that is to let generators get the cheapest coal,” said James Stevenson, global director for coal research at IHS Markit Ltd. “At the same time, it doesn’t want imported coal risking domestic mining jobs.”
Market Revamp
Zeng Hao, an analyst at Fenwei Energy Information Services Co., is among the few expecting China to further relax its grip on coal imports in 2020 as policy makers would be disinclined to intervene in “market-based activity” amid the slowing economy, he said.
Economists surveyed by Bloomberg this month expect China’s top leadership to set the target for economic growth at “about 6%” for 2020, which implies a continuation of the growth slowdown. The goal for this year is 6% to 6.5%.
Given the oversupply in China’s coal market, domestic prices are likely to remain at low levels next year, said Zhai Yu, a senior consultant at Wood Mackenzie Ltd. based in Beijing. That will reduce the attractiveness of overseas cargoes.
Spot coal at the main Qinhuangdao port is at a three-year low of 543 yuan a ton. A slide toward 500 yuan could motivate the government to step up restrictions on imports, he said.
Source: Bloomberg
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Saturday, 11 January 20
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Friday, 10 January 20
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Thursday, 09 January 20
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- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
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- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
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- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
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- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
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- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
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- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
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- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
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- White Energy Company Limited
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- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
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- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
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- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
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- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
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- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Marubeni Corporation - India
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- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
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- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
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- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
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- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
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- Siam City Cement - Thailand
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- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
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- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
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- Australian Coal Association
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
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- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
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- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
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- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
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- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Planning Commission, India
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- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
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