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Wednesday, 18 December 19
AVERAGE PRICES OF COAL IN 2018 WERE MORE THAN 60% HIGHER THAN IN 2016 - IEA
 Coal use grew again in 2018.
Global coal demand increased by 1.1%, continuing the rebound that began in 2017 after three years of decline said IEA. The main driver was coal power generation, which rose almost 2% in 2018 to reach an all-time high. Coal maintained its position as the largest source of electricity in the world with a 38% share. The China, India and other Asian economies led the expansion, while coal power generation fell in Europe and North America. In non-power sectors, despite a lot of coal-to-gas switching in China, demand remained stable. The international coal trade grew by 4% in 2018, surpassing 1.4 billion tonnes, said IEA
A big production jump.
IEA noted that, the coal production grew by 3.3% in 2018, mainly driven by the demand growth. Four of the world’s six largest coal‑producing countries increased their output, with three of them – India, Indonesia and the Russian producing their largest outputs ever. Indonesia and Russia recorded all-time high coal exports. Average prices in 2018 were more than 60% higher than in 2016, making coal very profitable. Export revenues of USD 67 billion – the highest ever – made coal Australia’s top commodity export.
India and Southeast Asia rely on coal to develop
Coal still fuels India’s robust economic growth. India aims to become an economy of USD 5 trillion by 2024, in part by investing heavily in infrastructure. This will boost energy demand for industry and, especially, for electricity production, IEA said. Although India has succeeded in bringing some form of electricity access to almost all of its citizens, the country’s per capita power consumption is still low, giving it significant scope to grow. Power generation from renewables is forecast to expand strongly, with wind capacity doubling and solar photovoltaics (PV) increasing fourfold between 2018 and 2024. But that is not enough to prevent coal power generation increasing by 4.6% per year through 2024. Overall, India’s coal demand is expected to grow by more than that of any other country, in absolute terms, over the forecast period.
Vigorous growth in Southeast Asia, new plants in South Asia.
Coal demand in Southeast Asia is forecast to grow by more than 5% per year through 2024, led by Indonesia and Viet Nam. The region’s strong economic growth will drive electricity and industrial consumption, which will both be fuelled in part by coal. South Asian countries are also in need of more electricity supply for the growing populations, and they are often turning to coal to provide it. Pakistan has recently commissioned over 4 GW of new coal power plants, with similar capacity under construction. Bangladesh is about to commission the first unit of the 10 GW it has in the pipeline.
Chinese coal demand is very resilient
In China, the world’s biggest coal producer and consumer, consumption will plateau around 2022. Stronger-than-expected electricity consumption and infrastructure development have pushed coal use up in the last few years. In our forecast, the decline of coal use in the residential and small industrial sectors continues because of air pollution concerns. Coal use in heavy industry also drops, driven by structural changes in the economy as well as macroeconomic conditions in the coming years. Our forecast sees coal power generation growing, although at a slowing rate. Its share of the power generation mix is expected to fall from 67% in 2018 to 59% in 2024. Overall, coal demand in China plateaus by 2022 and then starts to decline slowly.
The five‑year-plan factor. The trajectory outlined above remains subject to the policies and targets that will be included in the Chinese government’s 14th five-year plan (which will be released in 2020). Future coal demand will potentially be affected by the government’s economic growth objectives as well as its policies on nuclear power, wind and solar, and coal conversion projects. While reducing air pollution and CO2 emissions will be policy priorities for China, coal is expected to continue play an important role in sustaining economic growth and guaranteeing energy security.
The coal trade’s shift to the Pacific continues
Exporters in the Pacific Basin will do better than will those in the Atlantic. Asian demand continues to be strong. With the collapse of the European market, Atlantic producers, including the United States and Colombia, struggle whereas Australia and South Africa fare better. Russia is progressively oriented towards Asian markets. Increasing domestic needs eat into Indonesian exports. Demand from China and India remains strong in our forecast but is an area of uncertainty because of government policies to limit reliance on imports.
A final caveat
Our coal demand forecast has not changed much from last year said IEA. Despite all the policy changes and announcements, our forecast is very similar to those we have made over the past few years. There are few signs of change. In 2019, for example, a combination of unusual circumstances appears to have led to the largest ever drop in coal power generation, which will most likely give rise to a decline in global coal consumption. However, this is within the range of the annual fluctuations over the course of a decade in which global demand is set to remain broadly stable.
Climate policy, natural gas prices and China could change coal’s future course. The main difference in this report from last year is that the downside potential is increasing IEA said. Stronger-than-expected climate policies targeting coal are probably the main factor that could affect coal demand. Lower natural gas prices could also change our forecast, as well as slower economic growth. Last but not least, as already discussed above, China will ultimately determine global coal trends through 2024 and beyond since it currently accounts for half of global consumption.
Source: IEA
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Thursday, 19 December 19
COAL POWER GENERATION CONTINUES TO DECLINE IN GERMANY: DESTATIS, XINHUA REPORTED
The volume of electricity generated in coal-fired power plants in Germany decreased “markedly” by 37 percent to 34 billion kilowatt-hou ...
Thursday, 19 December 19
BANGLADESH'S NBR CUTS VAT ON COAL IMPORT FOR POWER PLANTS - THE DAILY STAR
The National Board of Revenue (NBR) reduced value added tax on the import of coal for power plants to 5 percent from present 15 percent for five ye ...
Wednesday, 18 December 19
ASIA IS SET TO SUPPORT GLOBAL COAL DEMAND FOR THE NEXT FIVE YEARS - IEA
Press Release: Global coal demand is expected to decline in 2019 but remain broadly stable over the next five years, supported by robust growth in ...
Wednesday, 18 December 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As we all know very well by now, the reduction in the maximum allowable sulphur content of marine fuels in 2020 is likely to have a massive impact ...
Tuesday, 17 December 19
AUSTRALIA ENERGY MARKET OPERATOR TURNS SCROOGE ON COAL LOBBY: RUSSELL
Australia, which vies with Indonesia for the title of the world’s largest coal exporter, is planning for an electricity future where use of t ...
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- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Planning Commission, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- White Energy Company Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
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