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Wednesday, 18 December 19
AVERAGE PRICES OF COAL IN 2018 WERE MORE THAN 60% HIGHER THAN IN 2016 - IEA
 Coal use grew again in 2018.
Global coal demand increased by 1.1%, continuing the rebound that began in 2017 after three years of decline said IEA. The main driver was coal power generation, which rose almost 2% in 2018 to reach an all-time high. Coal maintained its position as the largest source of electricity in the world with a 38% share. The China, India and other Asian economies led the expansion, while coal power generation fell in Europe and North America. In non-power sectors, despite a lot of coal-to-gas switching in China, demand remained stable. The international coal trade grew by 4% in 2018, surpassing 1.4 billion tonnes, said IEA
A big production jump.
IEA noted that, the coal production grew by 3.3% in 2018, mainly driven by the demand growth. Four of the world’s six largest coal‑producing countries increased their output, with three of them – India, Indonesia and the Russian producing their largest outputs ever. Indonesia and Russia recorded all-time high coal exports. Average prices in 2018 were more than 60% higher than in 2016, making coal very profitable. Export revenues of USD 67 billion – the highest ever – made coal Australia’s top commodity export.
India and Southeast Asia rely on coal to develop
Coal still fuels India’s robust economic growth. India aims to become an economy of USD 5 trillion by 2024, in part by investing heavily in infrastructure. This will boost energy demand for industry and, especially, for electricity production, IEA said. Although India has succeeded in bringing some form of electricity access to almost all of its citizens, the country’s per capita power consumption is still low, giving it significant scope to grow. Power generation from renewables is forecast to expand strongly, with wind capacity doubling and solar photovoltaics (PV) increasing fourfold between 2018 and 2024. But that is not enough to prevent coal power generation increasing by 4.6% per year through 2024. Overall, India’s coal demand is expected to grow by more than that of any other country, in absolute terms, over the forecast period.
Vigorous growth in Southeast Asia, new plants in South Asia.
Coal demand in Southeast Asia is forecast to grow by more than 5% per year through 2024, led by Indonesia and Viet Nam. The region’s strong economic growth will drive electricity and industrial consumption, which will both be fuelled in part by coal. South Asian countries are also in need of more electricity supply for the growing populations, and they are often turning to coal to provide it. Pakistan has recently commissioned over 4 GW of new coal power plants, with similar capacity under construction. Bangladesh is about to commission the first unit of the 10 GW it has in the pipeline.
Chinese coal demand is very resilient
In China, the world’s biggest coal producer and consumer, consumption will plateau around 2022. Stronger-than-expected electricity consumption and infrastructure development have pushed coal use up in the last few years. In our forecast, the decline of coal use in the residential and small industrial sectors continues because of air pollution concerns. Coal use in heavy industry also drops, driven by structural changes in the economy as well as macroeconomic conditions in the coming years. Our forecast sees coal power generation growing, although at a slowing rate. Its share of the power generation mix is expected to fall from 67% in 2018 to 59% in 2024. Overall, coal demand in China plateaus by 2022 and then starts to decline slowly.
The five‑year-plan factor. The trajectory outlined above remains subject to the policies and targets that will be included in the Chinese government’s 14th five-year plan (which will be released in 2020). Future coal demand will potentially be affected by the government’s economic growth objectives as well as its policies on nuclear power, wind and solar, and coal conversion projects. While reducing air pollution and CO2 emissions will be policy priorities for China, coal is expected to continue play an important role in sustaining economic growth and guaranteeing energy security.
The coal trade’s shift to the Pacific continues
Exporters in the Pacific Basin will do better than will those in the Atlantic. Asian demand continues to be strong. With the collapse of the European market, Atlantic producers, including the United States and Colombia, struggle whereas Australia and South Africa fare better. Russia is progressively oriented towards Asian markets. Increasing domestic needs eat into Indonesian exports. Demand from China and India remains strong in our forecast but is an area of uncertainty because of government policies to limit reliance on imports.
A final caveat
Our coal demand forecast has not changed much from last year said IEA. Despite all the policy changes and announcements, our forecast is very similar to those we have made over the past few years. There are few signs of change. In 2019, for example, a combination of unusual circumstances appears to have led to the largest ever drop in coal power generation, which will most likely give rise to a decline in global coal consumption. However, this is within the range of the annual fluctuations over the course of a decade in which global demand is set to remain broadly stable.
Climate policy, natural gas prices and China could change coal’s future course. The main difference in this report from last year is that the downside potential is increasing IEA said. Stronger-than-expected climate policies targeting coal are probably the main factor that could affect coal demand. Lower natural gas prices could also change our forecast, as well as slower economic growth. Last but not least, as already discussed above, China will ultimately determine global coal trends through 2024 and beyond since it currently accounts for half of global consumption.
Source: IEA
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Friday, 06 September 24
REBOUND IN OIL DEMAND COULD LIFT MARKET IN LATTER HALF OF 2024 - BIMCO
Supply/demand
Based on a strong second half demand, the supply/balance is forecast to strengthen in 2024 but weaken slightly in 2025 as n ...
Friday, 06 September 24
GLOBAL SEABORNE LNG TRADE HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE LAST YEAR - BANCHERO COSTA
Global seaborne LNG trade has continued to increase last year, helped also by the events in Ukraine which forced Europe to diversify away from Russ ...
Wednesday, 28 August 24
SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS INTO INDIA INCREASED BY +9.9% Y-O-Y TO 146.6 MLN T - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace over the past year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels said Banchero Costa Research in its lates ...
Tuesday, 06 August 24
EXERCISE CAUTION WITH AMMONIA SWITCH - BALTIC EXCHANGE
A new study from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) has thrown a spanner into the plan to transition ships from diesel fuel to ammonia ...
Friday, 02 August 24
ENERGY MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: COAL AND NATURAL GAS PRICES REACH RECORD HIGHS - WORLD BANK
The recent surge in natural gas and coal prices has been so swift that the main benchmarks were roughly three times higher in 2022Q2 compared to a ...
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- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
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