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Monday, 16 December 19
THE OUTLOOK FOR U.S. THERMAL COAL IS INCREASINGLY STRESSED - MOODY'S
 - Slowing global economic growth, trade tensions will continue to exert influence
- Coal's secular decline will persist in 2020
Moody's Investors Service maintains negative 2020 outlooks for the US coal and US steel industries and a stable outlook for the global base metals sector, amid slowing economic growth and trade frictions, the rating agency says in its annual report.
The stable outlook for global base metals is driven by supply/demand fundamentals despite weaker GDP rates and lower Purchasing Managers Indexes (PMIs). However, a challenging macro operating environment warrants some caution for the sector.
"Geopolitical and economic concerns as well as trade tensions will once again overshadow the global base metals markets in 2020, continuing the pressures experienced as 2019 as deceleration in global economies took hold," says Carol Cowan, Moody's Senior Vice President. "ESG considerations will also continue to increase in visibility, demanding more transparency and improvement from the industry."
Moody's negative outlook for the US steel industry reflects its expectation that weaker fundamentals will hold in 2020, prices will not rebound significantly and planned new capacity will weigh on market sentiment.
"It's a tale of 2 steels – EAF producers will continue to benefit from lower scrap costs, helping mitigate lower realized steel prices, while blast furnace producers will continue to face higher iron ore costs and likely-increasing costs related to environmental compliance," says Cowan.
Meanwhile, Moody's expects US coal producers' cumulative EBITDA to decline by more than 3% over the next 12 months, due to a substantive decrease in export prices in 2019 among other factors.
"The outlook for thermal coal is increasingly stressed, with ESG factors weighing heavily on demand from utilities," says Benjamin Nelson, Moody's VP-Senior Credit Officer. "Our long-term outlook for North American thermal coal calls for a substantial volume reduction over the next decade, driven by utilities switching to natural gas, where we expect prices will remain low, and renewable energy, which still benefit from government subsidies."
Moody's outlooks for 2020 consider fundamental credit conditions that will affect sectors for the next 12-18 months.
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Saturday, 26 June 21
KOSPO INVITED BIDS FOR 480,000 MT OF COAL PER ANNUM
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an International tender for total 480,000 MT of NCV 1 Min. 5,600 (Spec 1) /Min. 5,0 ...
Thursday, 24 June 21
FEBRUARY'S INCREASE IN COAL-FIRED ELECTRIC GENERATION REDUCED U.S. COAL STOCKPILES - EIA
Coal stockpiles at U.S. power plants decreased significantly from December 2020 to February 2021, including a draw of nearly 16 million tons in Feb ...
Wednesday, 23 June 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The first half of 2021 has brought a very sharp and continued recovery in the dry bulk market and while many where expecting a relatively strong ma ...
Thursday, 17 June 21
2020 PROVED TO BE A TRULY TERRIBLE YEAR FOR GLOBAL SEABORNE COAL TRADE; CHINA'S COAL IMPORTS - BANCHERO COSTA
2020 proved to be a truly terrible year for global seaborne coal trade.
Total global loadings in the 12 months of 2020 were down -12 ...
Thursday, 17 June 21
FITCH RATINGS RAISES SHORT-TERM OIL AND GAS PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
Fitch Ratings has increased its 2021 and 2022 oil price assumptions for the Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) benchmarks due to stronger year ...
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- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
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- Economic Council, Georgia
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