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Monday, 02 December 19
OPEC PREPS FOR OIL'S 2020 BALANCING ACT - WOOD MACKENZIE
 What steps should OPEC and its non-OPEC partners take to keep the market in balance in 2020? Ahead of OPEC’s meeting in Vienna on 5 and 6 December, I turned to Ann-Louise Hittle, Vice President Macro Oils, for answers.
What does good look like for OPEC in 2020? Given the uncertainty around global supply growth, demand and geopolitics, OPEC will do well to get an outcome like 2019. Brent will average U.S.$64 per barrel in 2019, down on last year’s U.S.$71, but still the second-highest annual price since 2014. It’s a measure of OPEC’s success so far in balancing what is a fundamentally an oversupplied market.
Will demand recover in 2020? We think so. This year has disappointed because of a series of one-off factors and the slowing global economy. The 0.6 million barrels per day (b/d) outcome will be well down on the 1.1 million b/d we forecast back in January 2019.
Sanctions-related demand destruction in Venezuela and Iran, plus warm weather in Europe shouldn’t feature next year. We think annual growth will double in 2020 to 1.4 million b/d. China will be key – we expect growth there to double to 0.6 million b/d, buoyed by strong demand for marine gasoil, as bunker volumes move in response to the new low-sulphur IMO regulations on shipping fuels.
Is global supply still growing rapidly? Yes, we expect an increase of 1.8 million b/d in 2020 –assuming OPEC+ maintains its current production cuts.
What’s changing is the mix, and for the first time in years, the U.S. Lower 48 won’t dominate as much. U.S. is about half the 2020 growth, with the rest coming from other non-OPEC producers including Guyana, Brazil and Norway. The giant Norwegian field, Johan Sverdrup, on stream since October, will add 0.3 million b/d in 2020.
So, U.S. tight oil is still growing? Yes, but at a much slower rate. We expect an increase of 0.5 million b/d, well below the 2018 annual peak of 1.5 million b/d. The rig count is down by 18%, or almost 200 rigs from the November 2018 high, across all tight oil plays. Monthly production growth year-on-year peaked at 1.8 million b/d in August 2018 and could slip to just 0.4 million b/d by end 2020.
Did we anticipate that? We expected 2018 to be the peak year of U.S. tight oil growth – but not the rate of slowdown we’re seeing unfold. Investors are forcing U.S. independents, which account for 80% of tight oil production, to pare back spend on growth and generate cash flow.
What growth there is by end 2020 will come mostly from the Majors (ExxonMobil, Chevron, BP and Shell) whose plans are unaffected by capital constraints.
There’s a certain irony that the free market, through shareholder influence, is succeeding in slowing growth – to OPEC’s advantage.
Time will tell how long it lasts – we think we’ll see tight oil growth recover in 2021 though not back to peak rates.
What about OPEC production? A lot of OPEC oil is off the market – volumes are 2.5 million b/d below a year ago. Around half of that is involuntary, due to U.S. sanctions on Venezuelan and Iranian exports. The other 1.2 million b/d are deliberate cuts by OPEC+. Admirable adherence by key producers in the OPEC+ group has been instrumental in balancing the market and holding Brent above U.S.$60 this year. Without cuts, prices would be much lower.
What does OPEC need to do in December? The current agreement on cuts expires in March 2020. OPEC+ needs to rollover through to the end of 2020. But with global supply growth outpacing demand in 2020, we’ll need further cuts if demand growth disappoints again. OPEC will have to move promptly, in this case, and take out additional production if it wants to support price.
Will fundamentals or geopolitics drive the market in 2020? A bit of both. Tension in the Middle East and U.S. global influence are risks again next year. U.S. foreign policy has been emboldened by the rise of tight oil in 2019, indirectly affecting export sanctions – on Venezuela and Iran – and the attack on the giant Abqaiq facility in Saudi Arabia in September.
None of the geopolitical challenges of 2019 has gone away. But we can see signs already that the U.S. is refocusing on domestic policy in the run-up to the presidential election next November.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Monday, 25 November 19
COAL SUPPLY BY CIL TO POWER SECTOR DROPS OVER 8 PC TO 253 MT IN APRIL-OCTOBER - PTI
Supply of coal by state-owned CIL to the power sector registered a decline of 8.5 per cent to 253 million tonnes in the April-October period of thi ...
Monday, 25 November 19
A 53,000DWT SHIP FIXED AT $9,500 DELIVERY SINGAPORE TRIP, VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY VIETNAM - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
After a week of value being eroded on the Capesize market, Friday brought improved sentiment across most of the routes. The 5TC averag ...
Monday, 25 November 19
KOWEPO INVITED 6.79 MILLION TONS OF (SUB)BITUMINOUS STEAM COAL BIDS
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea Western Power Co., Ltd. (KOWEPO) has issued an international tender for 6,798,000 tons of coal for 5 years ...
Friday, 22 November 19
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE REMAINS FLAT - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price remained flat during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Friday, 22 November 19
FORTY PERCENT OF ADARO'S COAL SALES VOLUME IN 9M19 GOES TO THE SOUTHEAST ASIA REGION
PT Adaro Energy Tbk released its consolidated financial statements yesterday, for the nine month period, ending September 30, 2019.
...
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- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- MS Steel International - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
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