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Wednesday, 27 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As the end of the fourth quarter is approaching, one could say that the wet market has maintained the strong pace observed during the third quarter and will probably prove right those market specialists that predicted that tanker rates would be soaring coming into 2020 with the “IMO effect” ready to kick in.
The million dollar question is if this firm market recovery (both in asset prices as well as freight rates) is the beginning of a new cycle. What definitely helped boost earnings was the recent sanctions imposed by the USA to the Chinese Cosco tanker fleet that abruptly removed a significant amount of ships from the market and inevitably pushed the market to the recent highs. COSCO Dalian and its subsidiaries own 43 oil tankers, including 26 very large crude carriers (VLCCs) which consist over 3% of the VLCC fleet.
Despite the sanctions, the fundamental drive in this increase is still the coming IMO regulations that as many analysts predicted triggered an incremental move of cargoes from the desulphurization units towards major bunkering areas. Opportunities for profit were also created for traders finding market imbalances deriving from the shock of new regulations and the need to create a “new” mainstream fuel. It therefore seems that what we have been witnessing is not just a short lived spike but the start of the “IMO story”, which will be in full effect the first half of 2020.
On the Dry market, the BDI has been extremely volatile throughout the year, shifting sentiment several times as a result. The year kicked in with a steep decline amidst fears of the US-China trade talks, the Vale dam disaster and seasonal Chinese New Year celebrations declines.
Most feared 2019 could be a repeat of the lows observed back in 2016, while during Q1 we observed an SNP drought with only 103 bulk carriers changing hands. However, during the second quarter the market stabilized and increased steadily along with the feeling that the worst part of the year was already over and hopes for a rebound came along, with SNP transactions increasing to 137. The third quarter was overwhelming; freight rates increased rapidly and helped most companies return to the black, while more ships changed hands and transactions totaled 166. So when the last quarter begun, sentiment was firm and freights were high, while the majority of the industry was prepared for a very strong finish to the year.
To the surprise of most, the positive sentiment that prevailed during the past summer is currently questioned by the performance of the BDI and uncertainty over the new regulations has become a growing concern for dry bulk owners. Consequently, one would expect transactions to decline. However, SNP activity remained strong, with more than 85 transactions already confirmed half way into this quarter, while the majority of them was concluded to Greek owners, which itself constitutes a vote of confidence on an imminent rebound of the market sooner rather than later.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 30 November 19
IMO2020 GLOBAL SULPHUR CUT: GERMAN SHIPPING TO USE NEW TYPE OF FUEL VDR SURVEY
IMO2020 Global sulphur cut: German shipping to use new type of fuel VDR survey: Technical issues and costs are the biggest challenges - VDR
&nb ...
Saturday, 30 November 19
PANAMAX: LEVELS IMPROVED IN THE PACIFIC MARKET TOO WITH $11,000 BEING CONCLUDED ON AN 81,000DWT SHIP FOR AN INDONESIA TO CHINA COAL TRIP - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market has been well supported over the past week, led primarily by the Atlantic Basin. After bottoming last week, sentiment was s ...
Friday, 29 November 19
FITCHRATINGS MAINTAINS NEGATIVE 2020 OUTLOOK ON SHIPPING, AS TIGHTER SUPPLY HELPS, BUT SOFTER DEMAND DRAGS
Fitch’s Sector Outlook: Negative
We maintain a negative sector outlook for global shipping because of the forecast slowdown of ...
Friday, 29 November 19
INDONESIA PRODUCES 390 MLN TONNES OF COAL IN JAN-SEPT: MINISTER - REUTERS
Indonesia’s production of coal for the January-September period was 390 million tonnes, Energy and Mineral Resources Minister Arifin Tasrif s ...
Tuesday, 26 November 19
PREPARATIONS INTENSIFY AS 1 JANUARY 2020 GLOBAL CUT IN SULPHUR IN SHIP'S FUEL OIL LOOMS: IMO
“IMO 2020” requirements for ships to cut sulphur oxide emissions enter into effect in just over one month’s time. This will signi ...
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- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Australian Coal Association
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The University of Queensland
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
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