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Wednesday, 20 November 19
FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENTS IN COMMERCIAL COAL MINING IN INDIA? - DIPESH DIPU
 In August 2019, Government of India announced its approval for Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) for coal mining, processing and sale. Not that FDI in coal mining sector was new, but novelty in that was that government now permitted foreign ownership of coal mines for commercial sale of coal produced from such mines. He justifications provided by government sources included need for competition in a sector that has been traditionally dominated by government-owned companies Coal India Limited and Singareni Collieries Company Limited; need for enhanced production as here has been shortfall in meeting demand; and, need for newer technologies that may bring in sustainability to coal mining. These indeed are commendable objectives and opening up the sector for foreign participation may certainly be considered a step in the right direction. However, public policy needs to be grounded in realism, and the reality of attractiveness of commercial coal mining in India does not bode well for foreign participation.
The response of government-owned companies for coal blocks on offer for allotment for commercial coal mining was announced in early August 2019 provides the evidence. Nine coal blocks were put on offer for sale of coal in markets and the eligibility for these were restricted to government-owned companies including the state government-owned ones. There were, however, only three coal blocks[1] that received applications by NMDC Limited, Jharkhand State Mineral Development Corporation and Madhya Pradesh State Mining Corporation. This lukewarm response may indicate towards the market sentiments for commercial coal mining in India. It must also be considered here that the coal blocks for allotment for government-owned companies do not have the two-stage auction based bidding for winning the blocks and, thus, the pay-out required to win these coal blocks may be lower in comparison to coal blocks put out for auctions. So, even with lower additional pay-out to government in the form of premium the coal blocks have not found many takers. There may be several underlying economic reasons, which are amplified for foreign participants, and thus, require consideration to evaluate if this approval for FDI in commercial coal mining would have any impact and if it would meet its stated objectives.
The first and the foremost is the economic feasibility of these mines. The foreign, and indeed any private company, would have to participate in auction process for winning a coal block, and commit to a competitive premium to access the resources. This has been an impediment for private sector participation in India, given the evidence of coal blocks awarded for captive consumption in power and non-regulated sectors that include cement, steel and other approved end users. There seems to be some sanity dawning on participants on these auction with every successive rounds of auction, seen from the lower winning premiums, and hence, it may be expected that the trend may continue. Nonetheless, the premium will certainly erode the margins for commercial miners, the extent of this erosion would be a function of degree of competition for the coal blocks. The margins are also likely to be uncertain in view of the price volatility of coal, which in Indian market is pegged with CIL price and a certain premium that reflects typically the discount that IL prices tend to have over energy-equivalent international prices. This uncertainty of prices is likely to be confounded by the uncertainty in demand-supply gap that these commercial miners are required to fulfil. There has been a shortfall in supply in the recent past, evident from the rise in coal imports in the last two years even with the stated objective of the government to reduce coal imports. This may present itself as an opportunity. However, the question is whether this shortfall is likely to sustain, and thus, create a marketplace for commercial miners. With a slump in thermal power generation and nearly absent pipeline of new coal based projects, this assumption may be quite a big one to make and decide in favour of making foreign direct investment in Indian coal mining.
Other important risks pertain to project execution. There have been several impediments in coal mining project implementations, such as procurement of licenses and permits, acquisition of land and rehabilitation and resettlement of project affected people. These, apart from the procedural challenges, involve risk of reputation. Business practices on all these accounts in mining sector have often been marred with controversies and have led to perceptions of externalities in these processes having significant influence on the outcomes. Foreign participants in Indian mining have been wary of these, and hence, have had little success to show even though they have had offices and a few exploration and contract mining projects in India. Apart from reputation, the risks in procurement of licenses and land acquisition create the risks of project delays, which may then translate into cost escalations, thereby impacting project economics. Coal mining projects may have such challenges in attracting foreign direct investment.
There are challenges of talent shortage and financing as well. Innovative technologies that the foreign miners are likely to bring in India will require high quality geo-statisticians, geologists, mine planners and mining engineers. India does produce graduates in these areas of study but quantities do no necessarily reflect quality, which are further compounded by the brain drain of talent into other industries, primarily, information technology. Mining industry in general, and coal mining in particular, has not been able to retain relent in the last decade or so, with advent of opportunities for the smart geoscientists and engineers in alternate industries. Foreign mining companies may find this crippling.
There are challenges in financing too. Coal mining projects may have been good candidates for resource-based financing, but that has not happened on account of several factors, not the least of those being dominance of government-owned companies priding themselves on debt-free balance sheets, and the quality of geological information that may be inferior to global standards. The market for debt for coal mining then often reduces itself to equipment financing with the equipment being securitised to the lenders. Globally preferred model of equipment leasing is still in its relatively early stages of comprehension and acceptance in Indian mining. With limited options of raising finances, the higher degree of equity investments may also be a deterrent for foreign investors as the may have comparable projects competing for scarce capital.
Coal mining industry has been on a downward spiral globally. Foreign large miners have divested or are divesting their stakes in coal projects. Global bankers have committed themselves to not financing coal and coal based power projects. Insurance companies are shying away from coal projects too. The ecosystem for coal mining project execution is dying. Epitaphs are being written on coal and its demise is predicted by governments, investors and policy analysts wold over. But for the coal addiction of Asia, China and India in particular, the demise may have been sooner. Under such gloomy outlook for the industry, with coal mining companies filing for bankruptcies frequently, it would be tough to get these foreign companies to look at Indian destinations favourably. An industry staring at terminal decline may not witness new investors, and old ones that may have been facing severe challenges in their home countries to look out for opportunities in India.
Optimism at this point of time of foreign miners participating in Indian coal mining sector, that presents a challenging business environment, may be misplaced. Only when the government calls for applications for coal blocks for sale of coal with permitted participation for foreign direct investment that the final picture shall emerge.
By Dipesh Dipu
Energy, Natural Resources and Infrastructure Expert
This article originaly published on economictimes and Linkedin
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Wednesday, 04 December 19
FITCH RATINGS: CASH FLOW GENERATION TO SLOW DOWN FOR INDONESIAN COAL MINERS
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Wednesday, 04 December 19
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Indonesia is reviewing rules that require coal miners to sell a portion of their coal to local buyers, a government official said on Monday, as sup ...
Tuesday, 03 December 19
STABILITY AND COMPATIBILITY OF VERY LOW SULPHUR FUEL OILS - GARD
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Monday, 02 December 19
COAL PRODUCTION IN INDIA UP BY 164.58 MT IN 5 YEARS - BUSINESS LINE
Raw coal production in the country has increased from 567.77 million tons (MT) in 2013-14 to 730.35 MT in 2018-19, Union Coal and Parliamentary Aff ...
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- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
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- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
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- Petron Corporation, Philippines
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- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
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- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
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- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
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- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
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- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
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- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
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- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
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- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
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- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
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- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
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- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
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- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
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- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
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- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
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- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
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- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
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- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
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- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
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- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
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- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
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- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
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- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
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- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
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