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Saturday, 16 November 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: PAUSING TO REFLECT - IEA
 Global oil demand in 3Q19 increased by 1.1 mb/d year-on-year (y-o-y), more than double the 435 kb/d seen in 2Q19. China’s demand increased by 640 kb/d y-o-y in 3Q19, the biggest contributor to global growth. In 4Q19, we expect further acceleration in global growth to 1.9 mb/d, supported by a comparison with a weak 4Q18, lower y-o-y prices and robust US petrochemical demand. Our global growth forecasts for 2019 and 2020 are unchanged, at 1 mb/d and 1.2 mb/d, respectively.
Global oil supply rose 1.5 mb/d in October as Saudi Arabian production returned to normal and on increases from Norway, Canada and the US. OPEC crude oil production was 29.9 mb/d. At 101 mb/d, world oil supply was 1.2 mb/d below year-ago levels with OPEC down 2.5 mb/d. Non-OPEC output growth is set to increase from 1.8 mb/d this year to 2.3 mb/d in 2020. The call on OPEC crude in 2020 is estimated at 28.9 mb/d, 1 mb/d below current production.
Sluggish refining activity in the first three quarters of 2019 contributed to a 0.3 mb/d decline in crude oil demand y-o-y. For 2019 as whole, crude demand is likely to decline for the first time since 2009, albeit by only 90 kb/d. This partly explains the relative weakness of crude prices for most of 2019. Throughput growth is expected to resume in 4Q19 and continue through 2020.
After increasing for five consecutive months, OECD commercial stocks drew 38.9 mb in September to 2 944 mb. They were 21.5 mb above the five-year average and covered 60.7 days of forward demand, one day below the average. Preliminary data for October showed total stocks falling in the US and Europe, while inventories gained in Japan. Floating storage of crude oil fell 6 mb in October to 64.1 mb. The number of Iranian VLCCs used for storage increased by 1 to 27.
ICE Brent futures prices were boosted by positive news on the US-China trade talks and reached $62/bbl in late October. Oil markets are showing increasing signs of transitioning to the new IMO regulations and HSFO cracks collapsed to ten-year lows. Record high freight rates supported the price of crudes with shorter delivery times to Asia.
Pausing to reflect
The IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2019 published this week highlights the increasing disparity between the calm oil market of today and heightened geopolitical tensions. The calmness is supported by a well-supplied market and high inventories. This may continue into 2020 because non-OPEC countries will grow their production by 2.3 mb/d. The US will lead the way but there will also be significant growth from Brazil, Norway and barrels from a new producer, Guyana.
Global refinery activity is expected to rebound sharply in 2020, after a pause in growth this year. While our oil demand growth estimate for 2019 is essentially unchanged at 1 mb/d, the volume of crude oil used by refiners and for direct burn in power generation declined by 300 kb/d through 3Q19. Even after a seasonal surge in refinery runs in 4Q19, crude oil demand for 2019 as a whole is still expected to decline by 90 kb/d, the first drop since 2009. This reflects the cyclical nature of refining that overproduces in some years and then slows down to clear product stock overhang.
A ramp up in refining activity in 2020 sets the stage for a hopefully smooth implementation in January of the International Maritime Organisation’s new bunker fuel regulations. Ports, ship owners and refiners have stepped up their preparations. Major bunker hubs such as Fujairah, Rotterdam and Singapore are reported to have large volumes of compliant fuel available. In the case of Singapore, one of the world’s two Ultra Large Crude Carriers is being used to store low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO) and marine gasoil offshore. Meanwhile, the price of high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) is nose-diving with cracks in Rotterdam falling under -$30/bbl, the lowest in over 10 years. The LSFO-HSFO spread in North West Europe blew out to almost $30/bbl in late October from just under $3/bbl last year. Nevertheless, compliant supplies may not be available in sufficient quantities in smaller ports and for smaller ships, perhaps creating some dislocations.
For 2020, our estimate for oil demand growth is unchanged at 1.2 mb/d, based partly on the International Monetary Fund’s expectation of 3.4% GDP growth. However, the health of the global economy remains uncertain in spite of recent positive news about the US-China trade dispute. This year, we are seeing a big difference in demand growth in the two biggest oil markets. In the US, there has been almost no growth in the first three quarters of 2019, while China has grown by 0.6 mb/d on average. Moving into 2020, US growth is expected to pick up to 190 kb/d while China slows to 375 kb/d.
The hefty supply cushion that is likely to build up during the first half of next year will offer cold comfort to OPEC+ ministers gathering in Vienna at the start of next month. However, a continuously well-supplied market will lend support to a fragile global economy.
Source: IEA
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Friday, 28 June 24
INDIAN POWER STATIONS STOCKED WITH BUMPER COAL SUPPLY AS TRANSPORT WOES EASE - BUSINESS STANDARD
Even as power demand has touched a historic high of 250 gigawatts (Gw) amid sweltering heat this June, India’s power stations are stocked wit ...
Friday, 28 June 24
INDIA'S CY23 COAL USE LARGER THAN NORTH AMERICA, EUROPE COMBINED - THE HINDU
For the first time, India’s coal consumption surpassed that of North America and Europe combined in the calendar year 2023, said Energy Insti ...
Monday, 24 June 24
PLN'S FINANCIAL SUSTAINABILITY RESTS ON ACCELERATED COAL RETIREMENT AND RENEWABLES DEPLOYMENT - MUTYA YUSTIKA
On 28 May 2024, Indonesia’s national electricity utility, PT Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN), released its financial report for 2023. Althoug ...
Monday, 24 June 24
INDIA'S COAL-BASED POWER DEMAND AT ALL-TIME HIGH, GOVERNMENT SAYS - REUTERS
India’s demand for coal-based power has risen by 7.3% this fiscal year to an all-time high, the government said in a statement on Wednesday.
...
Monday, 24 June 24
CHINA'S COAL INDUSTRY TURNS GREENER THROUGH INNOVATIVE APPROACHES - PEOPLE'S DAILY
At an opencast mine operated by Inner Mongolia Pingzhuang Coal Group Co. Ltd., a subsidiary of CHN Energy Investment Group (CHN Energy), a 14-meter ...
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- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Planning Commission, India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The University of Queensland
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
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